Laying 11 on any team is a hard pill to swallow for me, but probably why you're on the right side there. On board with you with the Cowboys, but the 1H. I think I've asked you in the past if you do your own 1H and/or 2H PR rankings. I see a better probability in the 1H as opposed to game. Best of Luck
I don't do 1st half or 2cd half PR's. The team covers the game also covers the 1st half far more then not. In the right spots I take the 1st half based on this. I could take the 1st half on every play if I wanted to, but I choose to be more selective.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Laying 11 on any team is a hard pill to swallow for me, but probably why you're on the right side there. On board with you with the Cowboys, but the 1H. I think I've asked you in the past if you do your own 1H and/or 2H PR rankings. I see a better probability in the 1H as opposed to game. Best of Luck
I don't do 1st half or 2cd half PR's. The team covers the game also covers the 1st half far more then not. In the right spots I take the 1st half based on this. I could take the 1st half on every play if I wanted to, but I choose to be more selective.
teams off 17 point wins VS team off 17 point loss is ...................59%-60% past 20 years, with 2 teams qualifying on this I'd think we should get 1 win at the minimum.
Plus teams off 35 pt loss and +10 or better is .......19-4-1 ATS
Teams allow 50 pts or more ........................ 65% ATS
plus very near BF play where I could build a case to back the Chargers regardless of this other info.
Bills should get the SU win. Bills remind me somewhat of the 2005 Steelers when Big Ben got hurt and lost games and\ when he returned they needed to win every game to make the playoffs, they did and as a 6th seed won the SB. Similar spot Bills are in, I don't think they win SB but could get there. Past 4 games their PR II is 16.86, (9ers 16.25 they did it for 14 games) which would rank 1st in the league, that is the level they are playing on but can they sustain that level over many games is doubtful. Very similar to what the Steelers did when Big Ben came back.
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Chargers +13 (-115) over Bills --- 1.15 units
same situation as Boys/Dolphins
teams off 17 point wins VS team off 17 point loss is ...................59%-60% past 20 years, with 2 teams qualifying on this I'd think we should get 1 win at the minimum.
Plus teams off 35 pt loss and +10 or better is .......19-4-1 ATS
Teams allow 50 pts or more ........................ 65% ATS
plus very near BF play where I could build a case to back the Chargers regardless of this other info.
Bills should get the SU win. Bills remind me somewhat of the 2005 Steelers when Big Ben got hurt and lost games and\ when he returned they needed to win every game to make the playoffs, they did and as a 6th seed won the SB. Similar spot Bills are in, I don't think they win SB but could get there. Past 4 games their PR II is 16.86, (9ers 16.25 they did it for 14 games) which would rank 1st in the league, that is the level they are playing on but can they sustain that level over many games is doubtful. Very similar to what the Steelers did when Big Ben came back.
9ers off 3 games with most points scored over any 3 games. And off their most points scored in one game and off their most points scored and 2cd most scored in 2 of the past 3 games.
Not likely 9erz off can sustain this level of play, giving another very good team with a very good defense 6.5 pts when your offense could very well be in regression is to many pts to give
1
Lean,....................
Ravens +6.5 over 9ers
9ers off 3 games with most points scored over any 3 games. And off their most points scored in one game and off their most points scored and 2cd most scored in 2 of the past 3 games.
Not likely 9erz off can sustain this level of play, giving another very good team with a very good defense 6.5 pts when your offense could very well be in regression is to many pts to give
How bout those Cowboys ............................
2-2, lost .35 units
leans ---1-0
Christmas day was crazy, Kc was a clown show, then the Eagles 2cd half kickoff was nothing short of a clown show and the Hurts INT. But then Lamar tripping over the refs looked like we could be in for another clown show. Crazy the things happened in one day with only 3 games.
Boys big disappointment. I thought when they came back late they could hang on for the win. What's more brutal is I got the worst possible line I could have. 2 was easy enough for me to get but once again when I saw the line moving against Dallas the right move is to get down quick which I didn't do.
Give Dolphins and Tua credit for making a very strong final drive to get the win. Miami defense did play very well VS a very good offense which they haven't shown. The thing to keep in mind is Boys offense was due regression VS bills the game before Miami. Sometimes teams do regress for 2 games, this is not consistent but it does happen so we don't know whether Dolphins defense was result of very good play or Boys offense regressing.
I think Boys roll Lions next.
Eagles looked like they were taking control of the Giants up 20-3 was it at one point ? Looked like it'd be a pretty easy win but then the 2cd half kickoff was crazy and things went down-hill quick from there for Eagles.
Let's remember 9ers offense in regression so I wouldn't read to much into this one game. think about this,. with about 2 minutes to go in the 1st half 9ers had 3 TO's, the Ravens had 0 and only lead by 4 at half. Purdy ave 9 yards per pass att, Lamar 4.4. That looks like a big reason why.
I think this is exactly what the doc ordered for 9 to go on and win the SB . I like the 9ers more now that alot of the hefty expectations are lifted off their shoulders.
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How bout those Cowboys ............................
2-2, lost .35 units
leans ---1-0
Christmas day was crazy, Kc was a clown show, then the Eagles 2cd half kickoff was nothing short of a clown show and the Hurts INT. But then Lamar tripping over the refs looked like we could be in for another clown show. Crazy the things happened in one day with only 3 games.
Boys big disappointment. I thought when they came back late they could hang on for the win. What's more brutal is I got the worst possible line I could have. 2 was easy enough for me to get but once again when I saw the line moving against Dallas the right move is to get down quick which I didn't do.
Give Dolphins and Tua credit for making a very strong final drive to get the win. Miami defense did play very well VS a very good offense which they haven't shown. The thing to keep in mind is Boys offense was due regression VS bills the game before Miami. Sometimes teams do regress for 2 games, this is not consistent but it does happen so we don't know whether Dolphins defense was result of very good play or Boys offense regressing.
I think Boys roll Lions next.
Eagles looked like they were taking control of the Giants up 20-3 was it at one point ? Looked like it'd be a pretty easy win but then the 2cd half kickoff was crazy and things went down-hill quick from there for Eagles.
Let's remember 9ers offense in regression so I wouldn't read to much into this one game. think about this,. with about 2 minutes to go in the 1st half 9ers had 3 TO's, the Ravens had 0 and only lead by 4 at half. Purdy ave 9 yards per pass att, Lamar 4.4. That looks like a big reason why.
I think this is exactly what the doc ordered for 9 to go on and win the SB . I like the 9ers more now that alot of the hefty expectations are lifted off their shoulders.
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...............................................how bout those Cowboys
on your plays & Happy Holidays & Mele Kalikimaka 
@theclaw
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