@theclaw Good stuff as usual
Yea it make sense they easily could. Dallas is terrible and Bucs pretty good.
But things have a way of happening in the NFL. Teams don't always bring the same effort of take some teams as serious as others.
To beat Chargers they needed a big game. To beat Dallas they could sleep-walk and then get caught.
Yea it make sense they easily could. Dallas is terrible and Bucs pretty good.
But things have a way of happening in the NFL. Teams don't always bring the same effort of take some teams as serious as others.
To beat Chargers they needed a big game. To beat Dallas they could sleep-walk and then get caught.
Denver has 68% of tickets on them but only 52% of money. 16% difference. Suggest sharps likely on LAC since they put up much bigger money .
But there are whales throwing up big, big money without a clue.
Denver has 68% of tickets on them but only 52% of money. 16% difference. Suggest sharps likely on LAC since they put up much bigger money .
But there are whales throwing up big, big money without a clue.
Absolutely. And yet they still have close to a 50% chance of winning.
Crazy thing this sports betting isn't it?
Good Luck tonight
Absolutely. And yet they still have close to a 50% chance of winning.
Crazy thing this sports betting isn't it?
Good Luck tonight
@lmb4321
Ditto… when you’re hot, You’re hot. Put all the money in and we’ll roll em again… ????… hope that doesn’t jinx ya…. Good call sir. Appreciate.
@lmb4321
Ditto… when you’re hot, You’re hot. Put all the money in and we’ll roll em again… ????… hope that doesn’t jinx ya…. Good call sir. Appreciate.
Maybe. But what would this line be if Dak Prescott were playing? I only ask because his QBR is about the same as Cooper Rush's. Rush has a lower completion percentage, but hasn't been as interception prone. Cowboys have also found their run game, Bucs are on the road again...........I'm done betting for the season, after one of my worst years in 40 years of doing this, but IF I were betting it, I'd be on Dallas +4.
Maybe. But what would this line be if Dak Prescott were playing? I only ask because his QBR is about the same as Cooper Rush's. Rush has a lower completion percentage, but hasn't been as interception prone. Cowboys have also found their run game, Bucs are on the road again...........I'm done betting for the season, after one of my worst years in 40 years of doing this, but IF I were betting it, I'd be on Dallas +4.
Thurs --- 1-0, won 1 unit
I was pretty confident LAC would come back and win SU & ATS after being down at the half.
Too many regression indicators against Denver.
Thurs --- 1-0, won 1 unit
I was pretty confident LAC would come back and win SU & ATS after being down at the half.
Too many regression indicators against Denver.
Steelers +7 (-115) over Ravens --- 1.15 units
Ravens move ahead of Steelers in pts per plays margin as Steelers sink to 10th at .063 and below the .090 threshold of good solid playoff teams.
But yards per points margin the Ravens now are the worst of all the possible division winners dropping just below the Texans at very poor .1
Ravens are not efficient at all with their yards while the Steelers are very good at over 3 yards.
Steelers +7 (-115) over Ravens --- 1.15 units
Ravens move ahead of Steelers in pts per plays margin as Steelers sink to 10th at .063 and below the .090 threshold of good solid playoff teams.
But yards per points margin the Ravens now are the worst of all the possible division winners dropping just below the Texans at very poor .1
Ravens are not efficient at all with their yards while the Steelers are very good at over 3 yards.
KC is 7th in yards per pts margin at 2.3 which is not so bad.
While Texans 16th at .3 which is not so good.
KC 12th at .039 in pts per plays margin which isn't the best but .....
Texans 14th at .020
KC more efficient in both metrics.
Texans defense looks very strong, 1st in defensive Passer Rating , 2cd in ave per pass at 5.9, 1st in completion %.
Could be the result of playing some pretty bad offenses but let's give them the credit.
Forced 28 TO's 2cd best and +13 on the year. 1st downs 3rd, 1st down % 4th at 34.4.
How does this equate to such poor efficiency?
Terrible in the redzone, gives up a TD at 64.7% of the time 28th in the league.
Offense not good. Stroud ave 5.78 per pass which is lower then the 2cd rank defense 5.9. So team is (-.12)
Stroud has a ridiculous high sack rate at 8.98%.
Redzone is only 54.2% TD's. Makes them (-10.5%)
In redzone.
And very poor at penalties. They committed 102 opps 94 , not a big difference only 8 extra penalties.
But the yardage is big which indicates they are committing big yardage penalties relative to what opps commit.
839 to 680 that is 159 extra yards on just 8 extra penalties. That equates to almost 20 yards per extra penalty.
Texans and Stround not as good on the road as they are at home.
My other system has a play on KC ........14-11 on the season thus far.
This week is historically a good spot for this system. With 4 plays this week hopefully the method rolls up a very nice record.
My other system ..............14-11
KC -3.5 over Texans
not taking any action only posting the plays.
KC is 7th in yards per pts margin at 2.3 which is not so bad.
While Texans 16th at .3 which is not so good.
KC 12th at .039 in pts per plays margin which isn't the best but .....
Texans 14th at .020
KC more efficient in both metrics.
Texans defense looks very strong, 1st in defensive Passer Rating , 2cd in ave per pass at 5.9, 1st in completion %.
Could be the result of playing some pretty bad offenses but let's give them the credit.
Forced 28 TO's 2cd best and +13 on the year. 1st downs 3rd, 1st down % 4th at 34.4.
How does this equate to such poor efficiency?
Terrible in the redzone, gives up a TD at 64.7% of the time 28th in the league.
Offense not good. Stroud ave 5.78 per pass which is lower then the 2cd rank defense 5.9. So team is (-.12)
Stroud has a ridiculous high sack rate at 8.98%.
Redzone is only 54.2% TD's. Makes them (-10.5%)
In redzone.
And very poor at penalties. They committed 102 opps 94 , not a big difference only 8 extra penalties.
But the yardage is big which indicates they are committing big yardage penalties relative to what opps commit.
839 to 680 that is 159 extra yards on just 8 extra penalties. That equates to almost 20 yards per extra penalty.
Texans and Stround not as good on the road as they are at home.
My other system has a play on KC ........14-11 on the season thus far.
This week is historically a good spot for this system. With 4 plays this week hopefully the method rolls up a very nice record.
My other system ..............14-11
KC -3.5 over Texans
not taking any action only posting the plays.
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