NFL Week 4

YTD: 6-12

I thought it would be a banner year after I had a great preseason but so far I have pissed all that away and then a little in just 3 weeks. Still feel good about the year despite a couple of horrible bets.

Haven't bet a game yet and I honestly haven't looked too hard at the card but a few initially stuck out to me:

St. Louis: They'll leave it all on the field in this one. It won't be easy as Washington are a fairly good squad but I expect St. Louis to pull it out. 0-4 and they are done even in this division. If they walk into their bye week not completely gassed then they haven't tried hard enough to win this game and deserve to be 0-4.

Cincinnati: I think more people on the board will be on this one than people think. I could go on a little rant as to why but maybe I'll save it for later. I've already seen Ryan Fitzpatrick interviewed on three TV shows and it's only Tuesday. There's no question the Bills are the flavor of the week. I expect them to come out flat here but not neccessailry because they beat New England, more so that they have had to come back from huge 21-3 and 21-0 holes the last two weeks in wild games at the Ralph. I think they'll be out of gas, they're only human. Bengals aren't as terrible as they looked last week. Their D is actually pretty good.

Arizona: I'm a little hesitant here because the Cards D is so bad but the Giants aren't a good team. I watched the whole game last week and they won because the Eagles had one of the worst no shows I have seen in years. The offense was totally out of sync and you won't see worse tackling and more missed assignments all season. Eli is still lobbing balls up for grabs and hoping his guy catches it.

Houston: I'm an ass for not betting the 3. The Steelers are way down this year, they can't stop the run, they can't run the ball and their offensive line is a mess. Andre Johnson said before last week the Texans wanted to see where they were at. I think they come away feeling good after the loss as they had the Saints by the balls but let them back in the game after repeated red zone fuck ups. I've already seen two articles devoted to how bad their red zone offense is so they will probably go 4-4 this week. Houston has a Top 3 offensive line and I think they push those geezers around on PIT. I think good QB's will torch this PIT defense all year. The Texans make the statement this week that they almost did last week.


Have to look at a lot more but Denver, Tampa, Jacksonville, Dallas, and Philly also look decent at a glance.

Am I crazy?

Arizona is head and shoulders better at home

Completely agree on the Cinci play.

What defense have the Bills played this year? KC? Oakland? New England? Cinci plays better D than all of those teams.

Now, throw in the fact that Buffalo has had to let it all out just to win the last two weeks (an enormous amount of expent energy), and are coming off a huge emotional win, I think this game sets up nicely for a face plant.

Ordinarily, I would agree with you on St. Louis, I just think they look lost. Stay away game for me; because if they have any heart whatsoever this is a FG game at worst....just not sure if they do.

Giants were gift wrapped the last two week's wins. They are a TERRIBLE team. There is value on Arizona this week due to the misperception of the Giants.

 

My early leans include Tampa (I think the Colts showed us the best they had Sunday night). If the Bucs wanna show they belong, Monday Night could be the time to show up. I think this one could get ugly. I look for Mike Williams to finally have a big game.

Looking real hard at Seattle and Chicago too

Hi andy. Rough start to the year for you there bro. Noone is mentioning caroline yet in this thread? Well, lets hope thats how things are, and we can get a +7 on them. They win straight up

I like denver this week, thats a ton of points for gbay to lay them. If denver can turn the pacover twice, theyll be in the game late

Agree with the TB sentiments as well, colts are lost, and thats a tough place to play, ray james. Tb will throttle them

Sd is so shitty. Miami isnt any good themselves, but i will likely take a shot on the phins this week

Im i a lions homer, but am hard pressed to think dallas gets their act together come sunday. Romo will be shook of getting killed by that d line, and all those nobody wr arent going to know much more of the offense after the short week.

I mentioned Chicago. Not a definite for me, but it likely will be. Like the Bears in this spot.

Nice thoughts on the games.

The bolded part is the most important and really the only part that matters as far as I'm concerned in this game. I'd be very surprised if Buffalo has enough left in the tank to play another good game. And this is the NFL where if one team looks like they will come out even a little flat they will most likely lose SU. The difference between the best and the worst in the league is not much. Any given Sunday.

Benson is also suspended I believe but I think that's a plus for Cincy. The backup Scott is a smaller, shiftier back that matches up much better against a very big Buffalo defensive line. Throwing a power back like Benson against those piles of beef probably wouldn't get much done. I've always though Scott deserved more carries anyway he's a career 4.5 YPC runner.

Not sure on Panthers/Bears. The Panthers run defense has a lot of holes without Beason and Davis to go along with two rookies starting at DT. This might be a chance for the Bears to get their running game going.

What's Green Bay's motivation to blow out Denver? I don't see it. Just get the W and get out healthy they don't have to prove anything. Let's just hope Denver hangs on to the ball. Extra possessions for the Packers and they will pull away.

Miami is on the verge of packing it in and quitting on Sparano. I can't touch this game. SD as an early season fav of -7.5 is a joke.

I didn't see Dallas play last night but apparently they looked awful. Good, it means they'll probably look great this week. This is the type of team Detroit can have problems with. They can't run the ball and their secondary is a real question mark. The inability to run will make Detroit one dimensional and Stafford may take a beating, the Cowboys seem to have their pass rush back. This is the best passing team they've played all year by a country mile, let's see how the secondary fares. The vaunted Lions defensive line has just been average so far giving up 5.0 yards per rush and tied for 11th in sacks against two dogshit teams and another that isn't explosive offensively....Meh.

I really like the Rams and Bucs as my big plays for this week at first glance

I had the Texans last week and that loss hurt so I'm gonna have to read into some articles and injuries cause I think that might have been a really emotional loss but they could bounce back strong at home here.

Lean JAX but don't know if I have the stones to fade Brees two weeks in a row.

I would lay off Zona I know they are tough to beat at home and the Giants are overrvaleud but Zona's D is disgusting and they have a horrible offensive line.

BOL man I wanna see you in the green this week and I'll definitely drop in here during the week.

 

 

If you had the misfortune of watching these buffoons perform for the last 3 weeks, you wouldn't even think of leaning towards them, much less betting them. I'm serious.

I'll pound the Texans and just might do the same to the Buccaneers again. They're very undervalued right now.

Cinci looks great, but I can't help but wonder if the Bills have one more trick left up their sleeve. May be better to fade Buffalo at a later date. The Rams are probably a better home dog.

btw what are your thoughts on the Chiefs this weekend?

BENGALS

@Rams play- toss up but the rams are pretty bad

Already jumped on Houston at -3, really like this play even without considering the state of Pitt's O-Line. I really wish Pitt had put up some more points on Indy though, especially since it was a primetime game. It worries me that even though Pitt was clearly better than Indy, people will just see the sad box score. Depending on how Pitt looks this week, I think they might be little undervalued heading into W5. 

I was thinking this too.  That was a fucking TOUGH loss for Houston.  They got the best of New Orleans for 50 of the 60 minutes of played football, and then just lost it.  Schaub suddenly lost his cool and started making bad throws, Brees got that Saint offense into a rhythm that couldn't be derailed, and Houston somehow came out a loser.  Worse part is New Orleans did it with two backup offensive linemen that filled in and did more than hold their own; they played great.

And WTF is this James Casey?  This guy was playing FB and creaming defenders.  He was lining up as TE and blocking and getting tough yards over the middle.  Shit, I even watched him scoot up the sidelines and make a Calvin Johnson like catch for a huge gain.  I'm not sold on laying 4 against the Steelers just yet, but I can't see the Steelers dealing with the vicious Texan run game, keeping pressure on Schaub to keep him out of his comfort zone, double cover Andre Johnson, and watch Casey and Daniels running wild off of playaction. 

Andy, agree with what you said in post 1 about the Eagles no show.  I think Trent Cole was the only guy on that team that I can say put forth 110% effort in a losing cause.  Rest of those guys were playing like the overpaid and overhyped bums they are.  This team shows glimpses of the pure talent and SPEED they have and if they ever decide to put it together will be scary, but right now, nothing but hype. 

Giants might be walking into a buzzsaw with Arizona.  Sometime today gonna watch last week's game to get a gauge on them as I'm not quite sure what to think of them.

- Week 1, they barely escape a battle with Carolina and at the time you think, "Whew, putrid D allowed a rookie QB to do that in his first start."  Since then, Newton almost beat the reigning world champs, and then won in a sloppy monsoon game last week, so maybe this Week 1 victory was more impressive than initially seemed.

- Week 2, Arizona flies across the country to face the lowly Redskins, but how bad are the Redskins?  They beat up the Giants Week 1, defeated Zona week 2, and hung in there on the road against Dallas on MNF.  They are a scrappy and well coached squad and losing to them Week 2 shouldn't be the end of the world.

- Week 3, a loss to Seattle.  Didn't see a second of this game so gotta get caught up. 

Bottom line is looking back, Arizona's Week 1 win and Week 2 loss are now more impressive in my mind, and think they can actually beat this Giant team at home.   

wait wait wait bears RUN GM???? hahahaha...they might run the ball 10 times and then give up and let there QB get nailed

I wholeheartedly agree with the Rams, they'll be my biggest play in a while. I also think that if Vick plays the Eagles should have no trouble winning by at least 14 this week.

bol

OK had a chance to give the card a good run through, few thoughts:

Scratch Jacksonville. It is too early in the year to be betting a team this bad against the Saints catching this few points. No chance I take 6.5 here with a pass defense that could be downright terrible by the end of the season. I thought coming into the year their secondary and pass rush would both be among the worst three in the whole league. So far they have just 3 sacks on the year and have played Carolina, NY Jets, and Tennessee which are hardly explosive passing teams. Brees is going to have all day to do whatever he wants. Jacksonville may run the ball at first but I think eventually they will get down and will then need a rookie QB to throw the ball with the worst receivers in the league against a blitz first defense. No thanks.

Scratch Tampa. I'm not prepared to lay 10 points with a team that plays close games. I don't think their offense or defense is elite enough to win games by this margin. The Colts may have put a lot into last week but judging by this line they are probably still undervalued right now and will most likely try new things each week to get a win.

I also saw a lot of heart last week when they easily could have quit after that Polamalu fumble they marched down the field with Painter at QB and tied the game. They may have won if Painter didn't miss that wide open throw to Garcon on the next drive. Reggie Wayne was very outspoken about bringing in Collins before the year because he wanted to give Painter a shot. Maybe the team believes he is half decent and got screwed when the team brought in Collins. Indy also has an improved run game and can keep this close.

I know it is a statement game for Tampa on TV for the first time but all the eyes and all the pressure will be squarely on them, let's see how they respond. And Monday Night Football has lost it's appeal. The games are usually shit and it's ESPN with all their bullshit and all their gimmicks. Sunday Night Football is the marquee game each week. When I tune into SNF it actually feels like an event and a real showcase. MNF is just a crapfest now. Laying double digits in the NFL is an unproven team is not something I'm interested in.

The Chargers are now down to 7 and I might fire in a play. It seems the thinking that they are awful as an early season team has reached it's apex. Nobody wants anything to do with San Diego here as a TD fav. They have not covered a spread yet and this may be a good time to do so with everything thinking they are awful in this role. The NFL is all about reactions and people reacting to the Chargers close call with KC last week are now realizing how terrible they are in this role. The problem is when this thinking becomes mainstream it usually is right then and there that the tide turns. Day late and a dollar short. Rivers has a 4-6 TD-INT ratio and has thrown at least two picks in every game, there is no chance in hell that continues and they may blow somebody out if he has a clean game.

Miami is an absolute mess. They are basically done in the division already at 0-3 with everyone else at least 2-1. They had the ball for 38 minutes, had 22 first downs, and had 370 yards of offense and still found a way to lose in the final minute. I know many will think Indy will fall flat this week after putting in so much effort to get a win last week but what about Miami? Several players came out this week and said the Dolphins practices have been awful all year. There have been rumors for weeks the team is tired of the coach, and they have no leadership. If they really want Sparano fired then the way to do it is to lose big this week with a bye coming up and time to get a new coach in place.

I think the Eagles show up this week. This is a big game for them and despite their SU & ATS record San Francisco is terrible. Their offense did not make it past midfield until halfway through the third quarter last week, that is dreadful. So far in three games San Fran has managed 209, 204, and 226 total yards of offense. That is almost impossible to do in this day and age in the NFL. They are going to have to score to compete here because if the Eagles do show up like I expect they will spread the field and have rhythm on offense. San Fran's defense did a good job shutting down the Bungals and Shithawks but against Dallas they were torched for 470 yards. Does the Eagles offense resemble the Cowboys or Bungals and Shithawks? The Eagles did not show up and were embarrassed at home this week, good teams usually bounce back strong after games like that. 2nd straight week the Niners have to fly to the East to play at 10am PT, the schedule makers were not kind.

I hate road chalk but New England and Atlanta both might be worth a look. The Patriots under Belichick have an incredibly good track record off of a loss. Similar to everyone realizing the Chargers stink as favs, everyone now seems to realize how bad New England's defense is. Look at the stats there is no way they continue to operate at the horrific rate they have so far. Even guys like Bill Belichick can get a little complacent on the defensive side when they are winning big and the offense looks so unstoppable. Now I think the focus shifts to the defense for New England and I wuoldn't be surprised to see that unit play well.

The staple of Belichick defensively in the past has been to take a team's best offensive weapon and do whatever it takes to neutralize him and make the rest of the team beat him. I think they go hard after McFadden here and make Campbell try to win the game. Campbell has looked good playing primarily with the lead and working off play action. He has not been asked to come from behind when everyone knows he is going to pass the football. There is a good chance the Raiders will be down at some point in this game and would you trust Jason Campbell trying to lead his team down the field to get back in the game? I sure as hell wouldn't. Sure the Patriots are facing some adversity and going into a hostile environment but these guys do that all the time. Is this a new situation for them? Certainly not.

As far as Atlanta goes, yes it is a tough trip but to Seattle but my god the Seahawks are awful. I cashed a ticket with them last week mostly as a fade of Arizona but fuck Seattle looked bad. Arizona missed two FG's, fumbled three times (none lost though), had 1 receiver and couldn't run and yet they still had the ball with a chance to win on the last drive before a pick. The Seahawks lone TD came on a play where Jackson just took off and ran all across the field and finally managed to find the endzone. I won't be betting on those bums again for a while. Before Week 2's game against Philly I brought up this Falcons stat: Under Mike Smith after a SU loss and scoring 20 points or less the Falcons are 10-0 ATS, 8-2 SU and averaging 34.4 points per game. Well that held up again in the Philly game as Atlanta won and covered and scored 35. They are in the same situation this week and Seattle defensively sure doesn't turn me on.

I didn't double check but it is something like that although I believe they have failed to cover a couple of times in the last few years as big favorites so the markets may have caught on.

I think the odds of McFadden having 4 TD's in this game are the same as Brady throwing 4 picks again: Zero.

I just looked it up. Since 2003 the Patriots are 20-6 ATS and 24-2 SU after a SU loss in the regular season. The six non-covers came when they were priced as: -14, -12.5, -10.5, -10, -7, and -4.5. It should also be noted the -4.5 non-cover came the game after the were blasted by the Saints on MNF and Brees had like 5 TD's or whatever it was. That was the year Brady came back from injury.

It is very possibly the Patriots had a hangover after getting manhandled in that game and realizing they just weren't good enough that year. It is a strong angle in the NFL when an up and coming team gets thrashed by a good team and reality sets in that they just aren't that good, there is usually a hangover.

I'm not saying I'll be on the Pats because I despise road favorites (0-1 already with them) but they do look to be in a good spot.

My enthusiasm for the Texans has seemed to have waned by the hour. I just don't think I can bring myself to lay -4 when -3 was there for the taking. Every point is gold in this league and the percentage of games that land on 4 is the same as the percentage that land on 10.

Get up the good worked mtbaker, you nailed some games to a T last week.