NFL Week 4

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

I mentioned Chicago. Not a definite for me, but it likely will be. Like the Bears in this spot.

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

I thought I was the only one who felt this way. Watching SNF before the Monday Night game is like watching the Varsity game before the JV kids play. just seems ass backwards.

And as far as ESPN - What game what was it a couple years ago(Maybe Tampa/Jax) where they asked the head coach to wait to take a timeout for TV purposes? Ridiculous!!

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

I'm going to hold my nose and take both road favs I liked earlier. Lost a bit on the NE line already.


New England -4 (-115)

Atlanta -4 (-111)


More later.

Quote Originally Posted by DiscoD69:

Ask yourself this question guys, if the Steelers were 'Team A' and the Texans were 'Team B' instead of their traditional names with all of the same players and injury issues, in the same situation off last week's games; would the spread still have opened at -3 and gone to -4? Or would it have opened in the -6/7 range. My instinct says the line opened low based on the Steelers' reputation more than the team that will take the field Sunday.

Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

Two weeks ago, I was on Tenn over Balt.  Last week, I was on Denver over Tenn.  I really like Tenn straight up against Cleveland.  Hasselbeck is playing very well.  Teams are lining up to beat the run and so far they have, but Hasselbeck has been very sharp and has led them to two straight wins.  The Defense has yielded very few pts.  True, they took a loss at J-ville week one, but I think they're getting better each week.  The question is at receiver with the injury to Britt (which incidentally gave Denver the cover.  Unlikely they would have if Britt doesn't just throw the ball on the ground). 

Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:

Great stat on New England...will be on them this week.  Other thoughts:

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Just locked up Philly -9 and NE -4.  I like those NE stats off a loss, and I think SF is so inept on offense that the Eagles won't have to score anything crazy to cover that number.  I do like how SF has looked on defense, but they haven't exactly seen such an explosive offense like Philly yet.

I'm heading to Myrtle Beach for a week, so won't be around to post for a bit.  Right now, my plan is to leave these games as my only action, but I am planning on spending Sunday afternoon at a sports bar in Surfside Beach and theres a good chance that I will add to that card in a drunken 355pm decision.

Quote Originally Posted by P4P:

Atlanta's the only play I locked in as soon as the line came out (not that it's moved much). I'm not sure if the line's "off" per se, as I don't know how big a road fave you can really make them, but it's certainly a fantastic spot with the Falcons off a loss and Seattle of an (ugly) win.

I don't think Atlanta is a great team, and they most certainly are not a great team when you get them out of a dome...but the Seahawks just plain stink. It's surprising to me, but I don't think oddsmakers truly understand how bad this Hawks team is yet. This is the type of game I will gladly pay to see the Hawks stay within 4 points of this Falcons team...right or wrong I can't possibly fathom backing the Hawks here.

As for the other games:

It's a good situational spot to take the Rams, but if you do you better just close your eyes and pray. This is the type of bet if you make you better be heading out to watch a movie or something because you certainly don't want to be paying attention to it.

Like the Texans quite a bit. I made a futures bet on the Chargers/Steelers to win the AFC, and at this point I still believe in San Diego, but have almost pulled the plug on Pittsburgh already. I think they're going on name alone at this point as they look pretty damn awful. Lots of issues to work out (and luckily they have an extremely easy schedule so they might be able to do just that), but on the road in Houston isn't the place they're magically going to get better.

Can't see the 9ers winning back to back games on the East coast. If nothing else that's a teaser play on the Eagles for sure.

Quote Originally Posted by mtbaker:

Thank you for bringing up Painter I watched SNF and the Colts fought really hard for that guy and I think they will do that again this week no value on TB.

Your play beneath that is golden and this time yes this time even Norv won't be able to fuck it up.  Dolphins will give Sporano the pink slip after this game heading into a bye.  Massive massive let down for the team after losing to the Hillis-less Browns they won't have anything left for this game.  I will probably be on the Phins at the Jets with a ton of value after Sporano gets fired.  The Phins porous pass D will get absolutely lit up by Rivers and a focused Chargers squad and at 7 I don't think we get dicked on the spread.  Gonna give Norv one more chance here and if they don't cover I'm done with that team for the season.

 

Quote Originally Posted by JGB3:

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Here's the card. Lots of chalk this week and a big card. I've talked about most of these earlier so won't go on about them:

New England -4 (-115)

Atlanta -4 (-111)

Philadelphia -9.5

St. Louis +....??? (will hope for a 3)

Cincinnati +3

San Diego -7

Houston -....??? (will hope for a 3)

Denver +12.5

Arizona +1


I don't think I touched on the Cards much since the first post. I still think the Giants are a very average team and those types of teams don't win on the road as road favorites even against teams like Arizona. I think the Cards will be a decent bet at home this year and their defense should be able to force a turnover or two. The Giants played a very clean game last week with no turnovers and just 21 penalty yards. We all know how inconsistent this team is, would three turnovers and 9 penalties shock anyone in this spot? The Giants have not covered three games in a row for two years and in that game they were -15.5 favs at home against JaMarcus Russel.

As far as Denver goes, where is the motivation for Green Bay? You usually need to be motivated to win by 2 TD's in this league and I just don't see it. They are 3-0 and off a big division road win with a game @ ATL on SNF next week. I don't think they'll have the fire to kill an out of conference foe that comes in limping. Look at the 5 times they won by two TD's last year: 2 were off a loss, 1 was off a bye, 1 was their home opener, and the other on SNF against a Cowboy team that quit. This looks like a "just win and move on" game. They don't have to make any statements and don't have any motivational edges.

GL this week.

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Here's the card. Lots of chalk this week and a big card. I've talked about most of these earlier so won't go on about them:

New England -4 (-115)

Atlanta -4 (-111)

Philadelphia -9.5

St. Louis +....??? (will hope for a 3)

Cincinnati +3

San Diego -7

Houston -....??? (will hope for a 3)

Denver +12.5

Arizona +1


I don't think I touched on the Cards much since the first post. I still think the Giants are a very average team and those types of teams don't win on the road as road favorites even against teams like Arizona. I think the Cards will be a decent bet at home this year and their defense should be able to force a turnover or two. The Giants played a very clean game last week with no turnovers and just 21 penalty yards. We all know how inconsistent this team is, would three turnovers and 9 penalties shock anyone in this spot? The Giants have not covered three games in a row for two years and in that game they were -15.5 favs at home against JaMarcus Russel.

As far as Denver goes, where is the motivation for Green Bay? You usually need to be motivated to win by 2 TD's in this league and I just don't see it. They are 3-0 and off a big division road win with a game @ ATL on SNF next week. I don't think they'll have the fire to kill an out of conference foe that comes in limping. Look at the 5 times they won by two TD's last year: 2 were off a loss, 1 was off a bye, 1 was their home opener, and the other on SNF against a Cowboy team that quit. This looks like a "just win and move on" game. They don't have to make any statements and don't have any motivational edges.

GL this week.