Oh man do I hate to say this but

See if you can follow this-
I started my gambling career by looking at spreads and trying to predict them with no research.
If I was off then thinking I was smarter than the books, I would bet that team.
I was a loser for a long time until I realized the books were smarter than me. I admit it, I am Joe Public.
I try to use this to my advantage though now by predicting lines and betting against myself. I have won the last 2 NFL seasons until this one (which did burn all those profits) but this year, Joe Public has been killing me, and the books.
I only bet at 5dimes, I play no parlays, I gamble onNickel Lines and I play no teasers,

I will never be rich gambling but I can do it for very small profits and losses and one unit for me is 50, not a lot of money.

I feel like I may lose and the Birds are now looking like the sharp side but I really love this Patriot team.
Bellichick and Brady are functioning at the highest level ever seen in the NFL, period.
This is not about players, this is about schemes and coaching and the chance to set a record that may never be broken.
The Birds are a great team but this is an awful big stage and 99% of them have never been there before, it takes a year to see what it is like before performing on this stage, imho

BOL...no Bet for me just rather  as a spectator "

Crash...I agree with you.  I think the Pats are the right side. The experience  factor combined with giving  Bill 2 weeks  to prepare  for any team is a huge advantage . Plus you have Brady and  the better defense. I also stick to strict money management  when gambling ,  never putting more than $100 (110) on any one game.

Your experiences with your friends worry me in terms of betting. I would think for sure that the average "Square" would definitely take patriots, easily. I'm thinking since you and your circle bet alot you might be underestimating the squares and overestimating the sharps. 

I just heard on the radio that in the Belichick, Brady era, the Patriots have been to 6 Super Bowls, in those 6 games they have yet to score in the first quarter.

I am not sharp or square but I see that the Falcons won 2 games against the beat up Seahawks and Packers but really didn't beat quality opposition during their win streak. Pats will be much tougher and have experience. Also thanks to Roger Goodell , Brady has a chip on his shoulder the size of Texas. So I like Pats to cover still iffy on the total.....

I like Falcons first QRT

find me. seek me out. I'm Here. come.

Taking the 1st quarter under big. Will likely tke the 1st half under also. Not gonna choose a side to win it all. Tis too tough this year! Though I believe come Super Sunday, the hungrier and the more angrier animal wins the game. And there in lies a dilemna, because the Falcons for sure are hungry whilst the Pats are the angry ones!!

Gambleholic, speak for yourself. The stock market is a gamble too! I know plenty of people that have lost a fortune gambling on stocks.

Also, there are people that make money long term betting on sports. They can be defined as; intelligent, disciplined, and opportunistic sporting event investors. Or, in short - they can be called SHARPS. Why do you think the books refer to them as Wiseguys? I understand that you're not one of them, but to act like they don't exist is stupid.

You can absolutely make money long term sports betting. Yes it's rare, but how many people ever even try? Most people just casually throw down 30% of their bankroll on games they do no research and have no stats for. Obviously those people lose. The books are good, and it takes discipline, but to think that you can't find a couple games on any given day that give you over 53% is just naive. The people who succeed are the people who treat it as work and treat their money like investments. Does that mean there's ever a lock? No, but find 60-70% games all the time and you'll be swimming in the money with good discipline long term. 

Gambleholic, I assure you that there are Sharps that visit Covers. They are likely not the 18 year old kids slinging insults, but they are here nonetheless. It's websites like Covers that offer them much of the information they're looking for.

I thought I saw you write that Sharps just lose their money slower than squares. Perhaps, you were quoting someone else. But, my point was that isn't true.

I completely agree that the stock market is a way to build wealth over the long haul. If you're patient and okay with a 7% return over the course of many years, you can't go wrong with the stock market. But, this is for mutual funds and/or 401K plans that you don't touch for a very long time.

I would argue that the average individual investor trying to pick individual stocks cannot return 7%. In fact, TD Ameritrade had a study that revealed these people return closer to 2%. And the reason was almost exclusively that they sell low and buy high. 2% can't even keep up with inflation. And if you're beating 7%, you are the exception, not the rule.

There are people referred to as Sharps that prefer a much greater return. Keep in mind that they're not trying to outsmart the book. They're trying to outsmart the other people betting on these games. After all, we the public are the ones ultimately setting the lines. If you really think about it, who would you rather try and outsmart...the guys running the hedge funds or your average Joe?

If one can master the latter, the return can be very lucrative and likely more substantial than 7% or better yet, 2% a year. To each his own

I think the markets are VERY comparable to sports betting. All of the concepts transfer. The difference is the ceiling in the markets is just way higher. Because of betting limits, being a successful full time sports bettor even with a solid bankroll would net you low to mid 6 figures with no room for improvement. With the right bankroll in the market your ceiling is just infinitely higher, making it far superior for a full career. Why do the hard work in sports gambling when that same hard work could make you far richer in stocks? I absolutely agree with you as far as a full time job goes. Watching a stock go up or down isn't quite the same fun though, so for those who are fans of sports that take those stock concepts still make some good cash on the side.

Want to apologize to gambleholic63 - I was dealing with some stuff last night and took it out on you. I know you didn't mean to sound arrogant - I just took it the wrong way. We are cool. Good luck on the super bowl.