Playoffs....tech angles part III

I was able to post that query from Comment #32 using my preferred SDQL at GTD: PO = 1 and p:PY < 150 and A and -4.2 < line < 4.2 ATS:  15-5-0 (3.1, 75.0%) Good luck everybody.[/Quote]

Yes well, you're a better man than me....I tried multiple times/ways.

@hoody

No Rookie QB have been given the chance to go this aggressive too!

No Rookie QB's team have been this HOT!

Not saying Commanders or REDSKINS are taking this game but trends of that nature are highly Flawed.

21)  Teams with the worse won/loss record their previous eight  games, how do they do in the conference championship round and the Super Bowl?

The short answer is, generally they have done very well....dispelling the notion that the "hot" team is the team to back.

  a)  In the conference championship round they are 25-7 ATS (+6.97)........Bills have gone 6-2 and the Chiefs have gone 7-1 their last 8 games......ON Bills

  b)  In the Super Bowl those teams with the lesser record their past eight games in comparison to their present opponent have gone 14-3 ATS (+7.03)

Both the Eagles and the Commanders have gone 7-1,.........if we take this to the last 9 games, this moves to Philly 8-1, Washington 7-2.

Query text.....tS(W, N=8) < oS(W, N=8) and playoffs=1 and game type

@Indigo999

 How about this one dealing with the luck factor. How do teams like Buffalo and Commanders, that won the turnover battle by 2 or more against opponents that outgained them in total yards in the division games, do in the conference championships? 

@Indigo999

 Don’t forget the “ this team is hungrier” logic some folks use to justify their picks. lol 

22)  Conference championship round away teams with the turnover advantage of at least 2 their previous game have gone 10-3 ATS (+5.8), 6-7 straight up (-0.2).....Bills, Commanders

23)  Conference championship round home teams that committed zero turnovers their previous game have gone 5-7 ATS (-1.9) and 8-4 straight up (+4.2)......Eagles, Chiefs

When two opposing teams committed zero turnovers their previous games, the home team went 3-3 ATS (-1.8), 5-1 straight up (+3.2)

24)  Championship round teams that were out-gained...

  a)  away teams....8-9 ATS, 4-13  straight up (-4.8)......Commanders

  b)  home teams ...4-4 TS, 5-3 straight up (+6.4).....Chiefs, Eagles

We saw a bit of NFL history this past weekend. The Texans outgained the Chiefs by over a hundred yards and didn’t turn the ball over and lost the game. That’s the first time in NFL history that has happened. Teams were previously 49-0 when those two things occurred. 

25)  A conference championship round away dog who has the better per game scoring margin.....0-5 ATS (-8.3), 0-5 straight up (-10.2)....VERSUS Bills

26)  A conference championship round away dog whose calculated line using each teams' last eight games is less than the Vegas line....6-12 ATS (-5.6) 2-16 straight up (-10.7)....VERSUS Bills

27)  A conference championship round away dog whose calculated line using each teams' last eight games is greater than the Vegas line....17-11 ATS..........ON Commanders....in the last 9 games teams in this situation has won outright 6 times and lost by a field goal the other 3 times.

query text.....AD and line

Calculated lines, last 8 game scoring averages

  a)  Chiefs 20.6-17.8=+2.8

  b)  Bills 33-23.8=+9.2

  c)  Commanders 29.9-25.2=+4.7

  d)  Eagles 27.1-17=+10.1

Calculated line, giving 3 points to home team

Commanders +8.4

Bills  -3.4

The disparity of lines mimics Sagarin's power ratings....Vegas is taking a side on the Chiefs and the Commanders.

Plays:

1)  Notre Dame +9......loser

2)  Commanders +6'....2 units

CANCELLING MY BILLS BETS....lost 1/10th of a unit on the buy-out.

query text........AD  and line<oA(margin, N=8)+3-tA(margin, N=8) and game type=CH

[Quote: Originally Posted by Indigo999]query text........AD  and line

Thanks. Interesting stuff. Some of these results defy expectations and others are more in line with what one would expect. 

There he is...

@Indigo999

Glad to read you are on the Commanders now as i already put in an early ticket with Commanders +5.5 and Chiefs ML -118

There are +6 and +6.5 out there now which sucks but feeling better with the information you have posted and you backing them as well. 

thank you for all the info you provide, i remember your thread for last years superbowl and i dropped a bag on the Chiefs because of it! 

Here's a small one for ya buddy

ACD and playoffs=1 and DIV and p:margin>8 and total>46

It's 4-0 ats   on Wash

0-3-1         U/N

For those of you having trouble copying and pasting queries into the Reply field, I suggest trying this:

Copy the query, then enter the Reply field.  Type a few characters and, without moving your browser, right click and choose "Paste as plain text" and then delete those few added characters.

I uses Chrome and that nearly always works for me.  Good luck.

@begginerboy

 Teams after playing Lions ended season at 4-13 ats when the Vikings lost to the Rams in the WC round. The Vikes played the Lions in their prior game which was their last reg season game.

@Indigo999

 Do you mind sharing why you bought out of ur buff bet.

From what I saw that game, the Skins left it all out there on the field against Detroit. That took a Herculean effort on a short week no less. We will see what they still have in the tank. Philadelphia is strange team giving off bad vibes. There is no joy. No camaraderie. No chemistry. But as long as they show up and play with any kind of motivation, they should win if not cover. 

Indigo do you ever look at totals? I like a food total bet lol

Yeah, one you can sink your teeth into.

season=2024 and AD and week>16 and 51>total>41.5 and day=Sunday  (8-2)

Here is an 80% trend to the over with  games this weekend in play.

These games avg 54 pts scored, so a teaser to the under should have potential

1. KC over 41/ PHIL over 41 -119 (2%)

2. KC over 47.5 (1%)

3. PHIL over 47.5 (1%)

59 quarterbacks have earned a top 4 pick in the draft since NFL expanded to 16 teams, almost 60 years ago 

Jayden Daniels will be the first one to start a conference championship game as a rookie

Good luck.

Here's an interesting stat; 

The Chiefs have had 0 Turnovers since 11.17.24.... the last time they played the Bills.