Playoffs....tech angles part III

Thing with this is most of it is week 17&18

This would be half my teaser  SU: 1-5   

                                           ATS: 3-3

                                           OU: 6-0

season=2024 and AD and DIV and week>16 and 51>total>41.5 and day=Sunday  (6-0)

So if this is half my teaser drop the line  to 41.5 and play the OV and it;s 14.9-100% this year so I still need another half, note the  1-5 SU says the Eagles win and the game goes OV Now I play around with Jowchoo"s on yours you can play A,D,F,H and get 10-3

season=2024 and D and week>16 and 51>total>41.5 and day=Sunday SU: 11-2     6.9- 76.9%  Note this is as D so the S/U Was-Buf

                                                                                                         ATS:7-6

                                                                                                          OU:10-3

I like this teaser Jowchoo

@DogbiteWilliams

 …good

@jowchoo

 Thanks jowchoo!!

Philly scored 28 points last week while going 0-2 in the red zone. Eleven times in the playoffs, a team has won after converting zero red zone trips, and their next game is 9-2 to the over since 2003.

THX DBW

@jowchoo

 Jow, so what is the final teaser play? I'm confused lol

number 1.

I don't put much stock in queries with few query results, but for those that do this query says to fade BUF:

season = 2024 and po:team = Ravens and p:W

SU:  2-3 (-4.8,40.0%)

ATS:  0-5 (-11.3,0.0%)

In this season teams coming off a win vs. BAL are 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS (failing to cover by 11.3 points).

So what have we gleaned are the plays? All these numbers….Commanders and chiefs? 

I believe the NFL would endorse this matchup!!

@Polar_Bear

 It took Missed kicks and a few iffy penalties to buck a helluva strong trend

Many years ago, I took the Broncos at +500 to win the Super Bowl going into the conference championship.....they beat the Chiefs on their home field (think they were a less than a field goal away favorite in that game) and they then won straight up as an +11 underdog to the Packers in the Super Bowl back in the Elway/Davis/Favre days  when the Packers were the defending champs.  It was my biggest win in my NFL betting life. 

I am going against some strong angles supporting the Chiefs, and of course they are the champs who have been there multiple times before.

I have a 15-1 ATS angle that covers by almost 8 points/game supporting the Bills if they were to meet the Eagles in the Super Bowl.  

Plays:

1)  Commanders +6'....2 units

2)  Bills +260 to win the Super Bowl....3 units

I will let my Bills play ride if the Bills and Eagles were to win..........I will hedge back on the Commanders on either the moneyline or spread depending on what the line looks like if both Washington and Buffalo get through.

Good fortune tomorrow....

GL 

Actually I looked it up....the 1997/98 season, the Broncos beat the Chiefs at KC in the conference divisional round after which my bet was placed on the Broncos to win the Super Bowl, then the Broncos beat the Steelers at Pittsburgh before beating the Packers in the SB.

Ja, to you too Fuse.....

Another angle I touched on briefly in this thread.....a team with the lesser amount of wins in their previous 8 games in comparison to their present opponent have gone 25-7 ATS in the conference championship game, which fits the Bills.

If their present opponent played in at least 3 playoff games the season prior, this moves to 7-0 ATS (+11.6), 6-1 straight up (+8.0) and 1-6 o/u (-3.6).....average line +2.43, 45.6, average score....25.6-16.4

Will try to execute the paste instructions of Dogbite Williams....it is all about the execution!!....lol.

This angle actually went 8-0 ATS (+8.8), 5-3 straight up (+4.4), 1-7 o/u (-3.6)

game type=CH and playoffs=1 and tS(W, N=8)-oS(W, N=8)<0 and opS(playoffs)>2

suck my bart. ugh, stupid forum

p:playoffs=1 and p:H and pp:week=p:week-2 and H and tS(HL)=0 and rest=7 and line>-4

0-2 s/u...by -17 & -14

0-2 ats

2-0 o/u

17-34 & 27-41

against KC s/u

play on:  Bills m/l, Bills alt lines, Over 48', Bills over TT

avg 1st-half score:  3.0 -24.0

Bills=/- 1st-half

Teams that have thrown the ball for less than 200 yards in each of their prior two games have gone 5-11 ATS (-4.9), 3-13 straight up (-5.6) in the divisional championship round, including 2-5 SUATS at home......VERSUS Chiefs, Eagles.

game type=CH and playoffs=1 and p:PY < 200 and pp:PY < 200 and site

p:playoffs=1 and p:return yards>100 and po:penalty yards>75 and H and line>-4

s/u losses by -17 & -17...against KC

Bills m/l, Bills+/- 1st-half, Bills-3, Bills-6, Bills-9, Bills-12

there is a crossover betwen the 2 systems

all 3 won the SB

Bills finally win their 1st SB

We'll see if we're right Rx......

@Indigo999

ALL those trends , stats and angles ...... don't mean jack when close in 4th qauter with 10 seconds left and a fumble or a pick 6 will determine the winner. LOL 

There’s one angle you are missing that makes these games today hard to cap. The money and money makes this world spin faster than our small minds can ever think of. Superbowl needs to get as much money as they can on every year, its the biggest sports event in America.

Public bets on the spread are

65% Washington

68% Bills 

on the ML

63% Eagles

58% Chiefs

if we use the sports betting principle of fading the public, easy bets would be on the ML (chiefs and eagles). In that way, the economies of scale is balanced, portion of the majority wins, big portion of the money (spread) loses. But I dont think it will work that way, specially today. 

NFL will wave their wands to create another historic superbowl in the books. That being said I think the Commanders and Chiefs will win straight up today both stories making impact on the league for the years to come.