Playoffs....tech angles part III

Cases for the Chiefs :

D and playoffs=1 and t:conference!=o:conference and p:points>32  

This is 1-4 ats for the dog Eagles. BUT! The one victory for the dog was when their opponent made an appearance in 3+ playoff games the previous season 

tpS(playoffs)>2 

D and playoffs=1 and t:conference!=o:conference and p:points>32 and opS(playoffs)>2. 1-0 Eagles.  

Look we can all find different query results for the team we lick to back.  What I find most trustworthy long term is 

pp:F and p:F and F 

Bettors that were successful the last 2 weeks betting on one of the best teams in the league get debunked in the Super Bowl.  See the undefeated Patriots  and 14 teams included in the 0-14 results.  I will make the  Chiefs beat me.  

One concern in my opinion is the Eagles high output of points last week.  When dogs score 33+ points in the conference final the previous week they are 1-4 ats in the superbowl.  

Bettors trust high scoring teams and that can create a false narrative as well.  

Bottom line I like the Eagles but can find reasons for the Chiefs. 

week > 21.5 and p:points > 40.5 and p:RY > 140

SU and ATS:   1-1 --- PHL isn't necessarily dead just because of that scoregasm vs. WAS.

week > 21.5 and p:points > 40.5 and p:RY > 200 --- No query results; Barkley's post-season is quite an outlier.

Spottie2935 said, "Bettors trust high scoring teams and that can create a false narrative as well."  He is dead right, I was shocked when ESPN Bet Live today stated that the early tickets were mostly on PHL.  I certainly expected the worship of Mahomes to give KC the edge, but that 55 points has created some recency bias.

@DogbiteWilliams

 but that 55 points has created some recency bias.

EXACTLY!

Recency bias may claim more victims before this year is done................................................gl pal

@jowchoo

Thanks.  Good luck to you too. 

PHL has fewer wins, so that's a plus in NFL playoffs:

PO = 1 and wins < o:wins

SU:  92-127-1 (-2.9,42.0%)

ATS:  125-91-4 (1.8,57.9%)

I would never act on such a small ATS edge in and of itself, but that is a great query because it has such a huge sample size.

FYI:  Those are GTD's figures; I did not pay to join KS because spending that money makes NO sense for small bettors like me.  However, GTD has a flaw; SDQL adepts should know that using "wins > o:wins" (or <) will generate an accurate query but not current matchups.  That is easy to deal with during NFL playoffs but a nightmare for anyone handicapping NCAABB on a Saturday.

The false narrative of 55 points also effects the total.

playoffs = 1 and p:points > 34  and total < 57 and op:points>13 and D

Thx spottie.

that query cements a teased total of under 56 for me.

According to the query, PHL has the same amount of season wins but in more games.  

@jowchoo

 I’m teasing this with some hoops and philly plus 8 ish….

 Any other over/under query.  ?    7 point tease.   Either over 42.5 or under 56.5.    ??   Thank you sir.  

@spottie2935

Maybe that "wins > o:wins query" is deceptive.  In the regular sesason KC was 15-2 and PHL was 14-3.  KC had a first-round bye, so naturally PHL has one more PO win.

Maybe it is more accurate and productive to query for losses.

PO = 1 and losses > o:losses and week > 21.5

SU:  13-6 (3.5,68.4%)

ATS:  17-2 (6.6,89.5%)

This query certainly makes PHL look live.  I only have a rudimentary understanding of football, and I believe my next conclusion is me being guilty of "Zombie GroupThink (ZGT)," the tendency of many sports bettors to act on their first impressions.  In this case, ZGT is "Reid > Sirianni and Spagnuolo > Fazio and Mahomes > Hurts."  That shaky conclusion makes me have a "mental bet" on KC, and I think it is wise in general to avoid ZGT. 

Great post DBW.

That ats record is to die for. For me, I stay on my toes trying to avoid outliers to these historical trends. Coaching is imo a valuable consideration  (for outliers)rough this SB

in whether or not I pull the trigger. I absolutely agree with your coaching/qb equation and will tiptoe through this SB with minimal exposure and if PHI

does win by (0-4) and total lands (42-56) I will be a happy camper........................................................gl

Great post DBW.

That ats record is to die for. For me, I stay on my toes trying to avoid outliers to these historical trends. Coaching is imo a valuable consideration  (for outliers)rough this SB

in whether or not I pull the trigger. I absolutely agree with your coaching/qb equation and will tiptoe through this SB with minimal exposure and if PHI

does win by (0-4) and total lands (42-56) I will be a happy camper........................................................gl

@DogbiteWilliams

 I think  PO = 1 and losses > o:losses and week > 21.5 is close to duplicating my query. The better team and or favorite fails a lot.  On the other hand look at what the query doesn’t like:  

PO = 1 and losses > o:losses and week > 21.5 and p:points>38

Yikes!  One extra parameter can destroy a query.

Maybe a powerful rushing OFF should be avoided by bettors, so all those pro-PHL/fade KC queries deserve a note of caution.

PO = 1 and p:RTD + pp:RTD > 5.5 and line > -5.7

SU and ATS:  3-11-0.

Good luck everybody.  Every day brings more contradictions.  Of course if everybody loved one side the price would be exhorbitant.

I will coin the term "Munchkin query" for a small sample-sized query which is more likely a simple outlier or statistical fluke whereas a large sample-sized query should offer more future reliability and predictability, although my horrible results this season certainly undercut that reasoning.

This is a Munchkin query that I am posting because of the HUGE OU margin.  I do not deem it worthy of action in and of itself:

PO = 1 and p:RY - po:RY > 100 and total > 45.2 and week > 21.5

OU:  0-4-0 (-14.9,0.0%)

Try flipping the "week > 21.5" to "week < 21.5" to see how worthless it is for regular PO games.

[Quote: One extra parameter can destroy a query.[/Quote]

its the same as mine and the Superdowl is basically 3 major things. 

Fade 1.)  Against a back to back favorite in their previous play off games, and a favorite in the superbowl, Query: pp:F and pp:F and F and t:conference!=o:conference

Take 2.  A higher seed (for instance, 6,5,4 seed vs. a 1 or 2 seed in the other conference, I cant find a query for this one. 

Fade 3.) A team coming in the the superbowl off a huge scoring game, this it at its best with a team under 4 season losses.   query: playoffs=1 and p:points>38 and p:playoffs=1 and t:losses<4

Now for those interested in some college hoops tonight, I found this gem.

League: NCAA BB 

Query:

season>2018 and AFC and rank>10 and -2>=line>=-7 and o:losses>7 and 8>t:losses>2 and p:W

query results are 8-47 ATS and play against the favorites Memphis and Illinois.

Take Tulane and Nebraska