Playoffs....tech angles part III

Yes.  I am annoyed when the query is written correctly, the query results are displayed but the current matchups are missing.

In yr opinion how many points did the spread tighten in SB bc of PHI's win vs WAS?

Patrick Mahomes is 100-25 SU

Playoff games above 0.5 EPA/Play: MAHOMES 7

Brady 3 Allen 3 Peyton 3 Warner 3 Wilson 3 Big Ben 2 Flacco 2 Brees 1 Rodgers 1 Rivers 1

@begginerboy

Mahomes is great in the playoffs, but that is built into the betting line (mostly KC -1.5 or -2).  Based on just the power ratings, respected gentlemen all rate PHL as stronger:

Ken Massey:

PHL -3.00, 60% chance of a SU win

Jeff Sagarin:

PHL -4.08 on his basic PR, 63% 65% 60% chances of a SU win based on various PRs

As Joe Fortenbaugh has said on ESPN Bet Live, bettors are basically paying a tax to take KC based on PM's post-season magic.  I have more queries favoring PHL than KC, but it is certainly easy to see KC getting yet another one-score victory.

@stinkroach

 my best guess is 3+  but 55 last week was ridiculous.  What if Philly won last week 24-23?  +4 to  +7. ??? 

Regardless of the line & basic...teams in their 4th playoff game & were in the playoffs last year:

tS(playoffs=1)>2 and tpS(playoffs=1)>0

7-0 s/u...dog or fav

Philly s/u

OUTSTANDING.,............Thankyou

GL on the big game 

There are several queries that show PHL is a risky bet coming off that 55-point scoregasm vs. WAS.  This query likes PHL in a likely competitive game (based on the line) because KC's previous game was not a standout DEF effort:

playoffs = 1 and p:points > 33.5 and opo:points > 26.5 and -4.7 < line < 4.7

SU:  9-1 (5.5,90.0%)

ATS:  9-1 (6.3,90.0%)

Great nuggets gentlemen 

PHL's OFF is extremely unbalanced.

PO = 1 and tS(rushes)/tS(passes) > 1.38   12 games   SU 10-2 (6.5,83.3%), ATS 8-4 (7.1,66.7%)

PO = 1 and tS(rushes)/tS(passes) < 1.38   534 games   No trends, everything is about 50/50.

The 2004 PIT, 2005 PIT, 2009 NYJ and 2024 PHL teams were/are extremely unbalanced and skewed toward rushing.  Their opponents ALL knew this and couldn't stop them.  Some RB's are big, fast, powerful and elusive.  Some have coaches with innovative blocking schemes.  Some are blessed with dominant OFF lines.

Some might actually be able to defeat a dominant DEF coordinator with a great record.

This game is shaping up to be mighty interesting to the point that I am considering watching it.

@DogbiteWilliams

Hi DBW 

according to the outputs, youre still allowing lower scoring in previous games to dominate.  Thus the 55 point "scoregasm" becomes irrelevant.  The fact is the 55 point point :"scoregasm" is a main point in my opinion because its such a rarity.  I just the way i see it thru all kinds of data and the data clearly shows when omitting the bigger previous scores its misleading to take Philly. 

playoffs = 1 and p:points >38 and opo:points > 26.5 

the results are 1-1 here when the lines you selected are in place.  I omitted the lines and it 4-5ATS. 

This game according to my data is a fade of Philly and A fade of KC both.  I have found the under however is in play (post #131)

Good adjustments to discard inapplicable games.

For spottie2935:

PO = 1 and p:points > 50.5

SU 3-2, ATS 2-3, OU 3-2.  All as close to 50/50 as a 5-game sample can be.

I view scoring 51+ points as a definite outlier with little predicitive value for the next game.  However, since we disagree and I am having a terrible NFL season, you are probably correct.

That should be "predictive."  I am under a spell trying to predict Super Bowl LIX.

@spottie2935

 Hey Spottie… based on y’all’s math… if you were teasing total… 7 point… where would you lean.  Ova or under.  42 or 56.  ??   

He leans under post #163, so tease the total up and play UNDER

This is another Munchkin query.  It's only 7 games, but all of the margins are impressive.  PHL and Under.

PO = 1 and losses > o:losses and tA(o:points) < oA(o:points) and week > 21.5

SU:  6-1 (7.5,85.7%)  Doubly impressive because 5 of the 7 were dogs.

ATS:  7-0-0 (11.9,100.0%)

OU:  0-7-0 (-14.1,0.0%)

Dadgummit, I wish I had run this query before last year's Super Bowl.

And the Oscar goes to DogbiteWilliams for his latest " Munckin"

Kudos my man!

Thanks.

@jowchoo

 10-4… read that..just curious if there were other queries…. Goin under.  Thanks.  

@Mskeets

 post #131 has very strong data on the under and I dont tease any games.

Thanks for asking. Wish you the best and best wishes on your decision 

@DogbiteWilliams

 I only like Philly because they are a dog.  KC was the dog in their last superbowl meeting.  I can not find any solid data on either side but the under is my play based upon post #131