San Diego & Cincinnati

I digress; but we need to form a thread like this every day or so and document which teams closely fit this pattern in the NHL, NBA & NFL

Especially those which fit it to a T... i.e. San Diego & CIncinnati.

Good luck tonight in the NHL.

actually go to my space > friend requests...

It took me 7 years to figure that one out

Quote Originally Posted by vegaslover:

Great thread but the NHL is an uninspiring 1-1 this year.  I was expecting a few more fames to fit the category given that we are a good way through the season. 

Two games boss. . . . did you check last year?  the year before that?   

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

I'm not sure how well this has worked in the NHL but I have to give you props for making a 5 minute video using spread sheets and excel to explain statistics to Covers members.

This site usually has a pick and a clover.

Nice fresh breath of air here.

Thanks very much. . . I'll be looking at NBA over / unders using Mean and St Dev's as well.

Quote Originally Posted by vegaslover:

I am totally lost now, if we should bet against NBA teams which score 108+ PPG & hold opponents to < 88 PPG in back-to-back games then how is ORL even close?  They won 86-78 and then104-88.  Aplogies if I missed something and thanks for your patience and any response. 

This is OZZWALD's tweak of the system bet.  It's the closest game on tonight's ticket.  I'm not endorsing it, but wishing him luck on it.  Small play at the most.  I've prefer to see ORL steamroll, then fade em next game.   

This is MUCH better than your hockey post in GD

But, when you have a formula/system/std.dev............"tweaking" cannot be allowed, can it?

I mean, your set of numbers would allow for x% of winners, if the numbers get tweaked, the % would have to go down, correct?

LOL . .

No myspace, but I am on facebook. . . .

carl james taft

I'm not tweaking it....this is an OZZWALD play on the closest game on the board.  I'm going to wait for a system play.  It may not happen for a few days in the NBA.  Tonight is an NHL play, and if it hits, great.  If not, I'm sure this will hold up in the long term. 

Quote Originally Posted by vegaslover:

I am totally lost now, if we should bet against NBA teams which score 108+ PPG & hold opponents to < 88 PPG in back-to-back games then how is ORL even close?  They won 86-78 and then104-88.  Aplogies if I missed something and thanks for your patience and any response. 

Yes, that's my variation of it as teams scoring over 108+ pts in the NBA while holding opponents to less than 88 is very rare.  Especially in back-to-back games.

I've tweaked the theory to work with teams that have scored 100+ while holding opponents to under 90 in back-to-back games.  While in ORLANDO's case the statistics hold true over the average of THREE games.  And the difference is 15 points not the recommended 20.

So just a slight variation on the same principle

The criteria is not as strict... and it's just something I pulled out of my ass while still using tafter's wonderful insight.

Hey, it may lose, but that's gambling.  I'm taking CLE +8.

OZZY.........

I love it!  I hope you Orlando gets steamrolled just for you.  It is largely the same principal.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. 

If I'm not mistaken, Tafter is is proposing to bet against any team which :

in the NFL score over last two games :

PPG for : 32 >

PPG allowed : < 12

in the NHL score over last two games :

PPG for : 4 >

PPG allowed : < 1

in the NBA score over last two games :

PPG for : 108 >

PPG alowed : < 88

THAT is what TAFTER is saying to look for.

I primarily bet NBA so I just adjusted the averages a little to suit my betting style... instead of 108 & 88 -- I'll look for games which 100+ and <90

But that's just me.

not myspace the social networking site... "My Space" in the top right hand of Covers.com

For example in the NFL, this held up for NEW ENGLAND :

DEC 6: NEW ENGLAND 45 JETS 3

DEC 12 : NEW ENGLAND 36 CHICAGO 7

the next week

DEC 19 : NEW ENGLAND 31 GREEN BAY 27

the under-dog covered

YESSIR

Taft, good work, I hope

I know it's Ozzs tweak, but anything outside of your parameter is a no-bet for you, correct?

BTW, some of us will "settle" for 70% winners, get to work! (I'm kidding)

Now then, are you working on something for baseball, or will that show up in March?

I'm working on OVER / UNDER for NBA in the immediate term; but yes, I will be posting similar stats for MLB.  The only problem with MLB is the different pitcher that pitch each night.  OVER / UNDER only may be the only way to statistically organize MLB.  I'll look though. 

I'd stil be a close "tweak" - I've been backtesting NHL. . . we may have to for that. 

Cheers

YES - you got it