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Prospect
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Posted: #76
So its safe to say that the Phoenix Coyotes is the play today? They are facing a LA Kings team that is coming off two straight victories by score of 4-1 and 4-0.
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by ozzwald:

Good info man.  It failed last night with ORL / CLEVELAND as well.

But my point is:

If you wait until you find a team which scores over 108 while holding opponents to less than 88... in back-to-back games....

You could wait an entire season and not find that opportunity.

So I'm just trying to make the same approach more practical I suppose in the sense that the bettor would get more opportunities to bet games by lowering the standard deviation.

I may just use my handicapping for the lazy technique for tonight... went 2-0 yesterday.



You're right - the >108/<88 score combo/back to back is extremely rare.  Like I mentioned above, it has only happened 12 times going back to 1996!  Given that there's 1,300+ games per season -- well,  you do the math!  Even if it does come along, your chance of winning would only be 66%-70%. I understand that the % is still high by some standards, but I don't think it would compel someone to wait around to bet the farm on it.  If the standard deviation is lowered, the winning % drops significantly.
 
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Posted: #78
Perhaps back to back 20 pt winners is a fade then.
 
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Posted: #79

Fade the Kings, yes PHEONIX to win SU, unless they are dogs then +pts.  I believe the game is a pck just like STL / CHI

 

 

 

 

Quote Originally Posted by thyo:

So its safe to say that the Phoenix Coyotes is the play today? They are facing a LA Kings team that is coming off two straight victories by score of 4-1 and 4-0.

 

 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by thyo:

So its safe to say that the Phoenix Coyotes is the play today? They are facing a LA Kings team that is coming off two straight victories by score of 4-1 and 4-0.





 
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Posted: #81

BTW

StL 3

Chi 1

 
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Posted: #82

Thanks Hawk. . Fade Kings is the same play. Pheonix tonight boss!

 
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Posted: #83
Didn't GoldenTaint post this same idea a few day back?  

 
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Posted: #84
Yes. . . precisely . . .  I took the data from the NFL and used it to mimic the numbers using mean and standard deviation so that this play is not limited to NFL.  This can probably be used in any sport.  I'm planning on using it in NHL, NBA, NCAAB, & NCAAF.  I'm not too sure how it'd work in MLB, but I'm willing to take a look. 
 
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Posted: #85
i like where you are going with this... good mathematical model... however, i think those people who are trying to force plays by manipulating the model are not very smart...

stick to this model very strictly, and you will do well... but if you do the "close enough" strategy, don't expect to do better than 50/50...
 
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Posted: #86

Poisson distribution


Do you know of this and how it works????

 
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Posted: #87

Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

i like where you are going with this... good mathematical model... however, i think those people who are trying to force plays by manipulating the model are not very smart...

stick to this model very strictly, and you will do well... but if you do the "close enough" strategy, don't expect to do better than 50/50...

 

I couldn't agree more. 

 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by Sosana:

Poisson distribution


Do you know of this and how it works????

 

I am aware of the poisson distribution.  I'd have to refresh on it, and see where it would apply to what we are trying to do here.  Thanks for the reminder.

 

As far as the NBA goes, I'm going to take a look at the 90s Chicago Bulls team first to see if we can apply this same strategy to their seasons and what the system record would have been. 

 
 
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Posted: #89
Coyotes 6-3
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