San Diego & Cincinnati

Is this perhaps for when the 3rd game is a road game then?

both of our plays tonight are against road teams.

Thanks for bringing it up.  The initial idea looked correct. 

What about for going against a team with back to back 20 pt wins?  the 100/90 was an idea we had discussed, but I don't endorse.  I do believe there's something to be said about 2 st devs for back to back weeks. 

BTW, Can you show more than 1 counterexample to the overall idea.  I saw Baltimore 08, but hell, even NE in 08 didn't have this circumstance come up. 

Hell, the 85 bears lost both times ATS that year when this situation happenned twice. 

I think were all going to have to see more examples that argue against what we believe we've found here. 

70% is an absolute STEAMROLL.  We'll take it, look for it, and play it in not just the NFL, but NBA, and NHL.

Thanks for replying, and good luck on your bets. 

for NFL, NHL & NBA...

These statistics will generate a high % of COVERS / WINS I'm fairly certain.

I just manipulated the 'system' to provide MYSELF with more opportunity to bet games using this statistical angle.  Like I said, I would be hard-pressed to find many games in which an NBA team scored OVER 108 points while holding opponents to less than 88... especially two games in a row. 

I feel that very few of those opportunities would arise.

Coincidentally the best 'system' I've found for handicapping college football games is simply take the team that scores more PPG... or if the DOG + the POINTS is > the scoring avg of the favored team.

For example, NC St +3 tonight

And Iowa +3

But in my example for college football, it has nothing to do with this thread except that it involves the most basic of statistical principles...

Handicapping for retards if you will... but it has a very high winning % for me this year.

And sorry for the 'retards' comments, that's not politically correct...

Handicapping for the lazy is maybe a more appropriate way of putting it.

It's all good OZZ. . . Too bad on the ORL Fade that you liked. . .

STL - CHI tied in the 3rd. . . STL is killing in Shots On Goal. . Either way, STL was the right play.

Correction 2 - 1 STL

The System wouldn't consider that a play.  The play is this:

Fade 108 or more offensively and 88 or under defensively for the same two games

THX MJ . . I ripped Cincy too. . nice rip on GB.

Bottom Line

When the 85 bears lose ATS TWICE under this system, IT works!  ; )

No prob Easties.. .

you mean someone at my work perhaps?  I'm self employed right now. 

Perhaps a bounce back by Two STDs would work. . let's backtest it.

yo bro, nice hit on the NHL.

Luckily I didn't get my CLEVELAND bet in on time

So I ended up going 3-0 yesterday with

NC ST +3

IOWA +3

San Antonio Spurs -3

I was surprised @ the ORLANDO / CLE final though, I figured CLE could win that game out-right.

Do you see any games which fit your model in the NBA tonight?

And also, how could you apply this to college football, or is that possible...

I hate using a local book for the sole fact that my only betting options at this time are : NBA, NCAAF & NFL.

It sux.  I love betting hockey.

I'm looking over tonight's games...

Good info man.  It failed last night with ORL / CLEVELAND as well.

But my point is:

If you wait until you find a team which scores over 108 while holding opponents to less than 88... in back-to-back games....

You could wait an entire season and not find that opportunity.

So I'm just trying to make the same approach more practical I suppose in the sense that the bettor would get more opportunities to bet games by lowering the standard deviation.

I may just use my handicapping for the lazy technique for tonight... went 2-0 yesterday.