Posted:
#26
Great insight . Thank you. Have a Happy and Healthy New Year
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San Francisco 49ers
Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
This seems to be the reason this team is so overlooked at the moment. They have not looked dominant like the Broncos this season and have looked stagnant in some widely-viewed games. Many people are likely still bitter about the disappointing fantasy seasons that Kap, Gore, Boldin, Davis, etc have had too.
The truth is this team doesn't need to run a million plays and score a million points. That's just not their style. They run the ball a ton (#1 in rush play %) which greatly reduces their YPP stats and total yardage stats. They also run the 2nd fewest plays per game in the NFL despite possessing the ball for 31 minutes per game.
However, what they do do well is score points and take care of the football. They are a Top 10 red zone team and tied for the 4th fewest giveaways in the NFL. They've scored 30+ points 7 times this season (5 for Seattle), they average more points per game than Seattle and Carolina and are only 1.1 PPG behind the Saints. With more reps for a healthy offense I expect them to improve even more.
Side note - this team also has a legit kicker this season. Dawson has hit FG's at a 90% clip and David Akers is nowhere to be seen.
This seems to be the reason this team is so overlooked at the moment. They have not looked dominant like the Broncos this season and have looked stagnant in some widely-viewed games. Many people are likely still bitter about the disappointing fantasy seasons that Kap, Gore, Boldin, Davis, etc have had too.
The truth is this team doesn't need to run a million plays and score a million points. That's just not their style. They run the ball a ton (#1 in rush play %) which greatly reduces their YPP stats and total yardage stats. They also run the 2nd fewest plays per game in the NFL despite possessing the ball for 31 minutes per game.
However, what they do do well is score points and take care of the football. They are a Top 10 red zone team and tied for the 4th fewest giveaways in the NFL. They've scored 30+ points 7 times this season (5 for Seattle), they average more points per game than Seattle and Carolina and are only 1.1 PPG behind the Saints. With more reps for a healthy offense I expect them to improve even more.
Side note - this team also has a legit kicker this season. Dawson has hit FG's at a 90% clip and David Akers is nowhere to be seen.
Great analysis 
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Posted:
#34
Great to see so many familiar names here. Sorry I didn't get a chance to check back in.
I laid a unit -155 on the SF ML against GB and immediately rolled it over on SF pk -108 after the line opened. Rolling with these guys all the way and hope to turn 1 unit into 12+. Have 1.65 to win 1.53 for this week.
Respect the Panthers, but think they are in very tough. 1st playoff game for this whole group. They've only scored 15.8 PPG against defenses in the top half in terms of points allowed. Their one NFL WR will be severely hampered if he does play at all, and they play an elite D playing at a high level. Not sure they exceed 10 points.
SF has lost 1 road game ATS all season. They are as seasoned as they come. There's always value on the road teams in spots like this when you've got the better group and they are focused/motivated. They won't be intimated a bit and are the type of team that THRIVES in situations like this. We get the standard HFA priced in for Carolina when it doesn't really exist. This line would be SF -4.5/5 on a neutral and instead we get free points. Now that is value.
GL.
I laid a unit -155 on the SF ML against GB and immediately rolled it over on SF pk -108 after the line opened. Rolling with these guys all the way and hope to turn 1 unit into 12+. Have 1.65 to win 1.53 for this week.
Respect the Panthers, but think they are in very tough. 1st playoff game for this whole group. They've only scored 15.8 PPG against defenses in the top half in terms of points allowed. Their one NFL WR will be severely hampered if he does play at all, and they play an elite D playing at a high level. Not sure they exceed 10 points.
SF has lost 1 road game ATS all season. They are as seasoned as they come. There's always value on the road teams in spots like this when you've got the better group and they are focused/motivated. They won't be intimated a bit and are the type of team that THRIVES in situations like this. We get the standard HFA priced in for Carolina when it doesn't really exist. This line would be SF -4.5/5 on a neutral and instead we get free points. Now that is value.
GL.
0
Posted:
#38
I agree with you 100% but not until they win this week against the team I'm putting in the exact same category you are putting SF. I believe either of these 2 can beat Seattle with a solid effort and can't believe it has to come down to a divisional matchup. I only give Saints a 20% chance to beat Seattle on road so should be another road NFC Cmpship game where game would be SF +4.5 or Carolina +7 where I will take either
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Posted:
#39
SF will go as far as Kaepernick can take them. His runs as well as passes. Cam is a first down machine, Kap is a TD machine. If this guy from Mt. west can out duel the Heisman winner from SEC, hats off. If SF wins this weekend, they certainly have a chance in Seattle or at home. Although Kaepernick did look like a deer in headlights the first go round there. He is already is the Pack killer, next up Panthers. Winning two in a row on the road in the playoffs under such diverse conditions will surely make SF true road warriors.
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Posted:
#41
Wrote this about SF this week earlier in another thread:
Be careful with the Carolina has nothing to lose angle. This has worked well with some big dogs in the past in the playoffs (NO/SEA and PIT/DEN). It worked well because the dogs were huge dogs and really had no chance and the favs were frauds. I remember hammering Denver in that game because Pittsburgh was a total flake. Not the case here at all. SF is a very strong team and aren't waiting to be beat like those other teams were.
You also had angles where the superior teams often overlooked these teams with "nothing to lose" because there was such a gap. That gap does not exist here. This line is virtually a pk and most importantly SF lost to CAR on their own field. No way they overlook the Panthers.
Also, there is not one position where Carolina is better than SF. Not one. You could argue the D-line, but with Aldon Smith back and wreaking havoc it's a push at best. SF is better everywhere else across the board. More efficient running, stopping the run, passing, and stopping the pass. They've also got the experience and won't give a garbage if this game is on the road.
I wouldn't trust Ron Rivera here either. This guy was a baffoon before 12 weeks ago and cost CAR games left and right. Now the pressure is really on here and who's to say he won't revert to his old self and darn it up? He's never been in the playoffs. Harbaugh is leagues better at this point.
Don't know how SF can be running on fumes either. They are finally healthy and have won 7 in a row. They are just peaking and finding a groove. CAR has all the makings of a team running on fumes. They have not been good since their win streak was snapped and look like the classic team that hit their stride too early. They barely beat a disgraceful ATL team, were stomped in NO, unimpressive against the Jets, and pulled the other NO game out of their behind in a game they were dominated.
GL, but I just don't see the reasons to play CAR. SF is the better team and they aren't a flake so the "nothing to lose" angle gets thrown out. So does HFA IMO when you have an experienced team like SF.
Also played Seattle -1/Denver -2 tease.
Like both teams spread, but have a tough time laying this much in the playoffs. Liked Denver to smash SD earlier in the week, but can't lay DD against an elite QB and team that has only lost by DD once all season. Too much respect. I do think Denver scores a pile of points though. They've been waiting all season for this game. The Manning playoff factor is overblown and he should shred a terrible SD defense with all his receivers healthy and off a bye. GL Chargers. They'll need it.
Everyone knows it, but the Saints stink on the road. This team is putrid against good defenses too. They've played six road games this season against Top 15 DVOA pass defenses and they are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS averaging 16.5 PPG. Brees has been especially horrid as he's compiled a 75.6 QB rating in those games with 8 TD and 9 INT. He's been bad every game too with his highest rating being 80. That 75.6 QB rating is worse than Case Keenum, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, EJ Manuel, and Chad Henne. None of those guys are going into Seattle and winning a playoff game against an elite defense and neither is Brees who has shown nothing to suggest he's better than those guys in this type of situation (road against good pass D). Better QB + defense + best HFA in the league is more than enough here.
GL gents.
Be careful with the Carolina has nothing to lose angle. This has worked well with some big dogs in the past in the playoffs (NO/SEA and PIT/DEN). It worked well because the dogs were huge dogs and really had no chance and the favs were frauds. I remember hammering Denver in that game because Pittsburgh was a total flake. Not the case here at all. SF is a very strong team and aren't waiting to be beat like those other teams were.
You also had angles where the superior teams often overlooked these teams with "nothing to lose" because there was such a gap. That gap does not exist here. This line is virtually a pk and most importantly SF lost to CAR on their own field. No way they overlook the Panthers.
Also, there is not one position where Carolina is better than SF. Not one. You could argue the D-line, but with Aldon Smith back and wreaking havoc it's a push at best. SF is better everywhere else across the board. More efficient running, stopping the run, passing, and stopping the pass. They've also got the experience and won't give a garbage if this game is on the road.
I wouldn't trust Ron Rivera here either. This guy was a baffoon before 12 weeks ago and cost CAR games left and right. Now the pressure is really on here and who's to say he won't revert to his old self and darn it up? He's never been in the playoffs. Harbaugh is leagues better at this point.
Don't know how SF can be running on fumes either. They are finally healthy and have won 7 in a row. They are just peaking and finding a groove. CAR has all the makings of a team running on fumes. They have not been good since their win streak was snapped and look like the classic team that hit their stride too early. They barely beat a disgraceful ATL team, were stomped in NO, unimpressive against the Jets, and pulled the other NO game out of their behind in a game they were dominated.
GL, but I just don't see the reasons to play CAR. SF is the better team and they aren't a flake so the "nothing to lose" angle gets thrown out. So does HFA IMO when you have an experienced team like SF.
Also played Seattle -1/Denver -2 tease.
Like both teams spread, but have a tough time laying this much in the playoffs. Liked Denver to smash SD earlier in the week, but can't lay DD against an elite QB and team that has only lost by DD once all season. Too much respect. I do think Denver scores a pile of points though. They've been waiting all season for this game. The Manning playoff factor is overblown and he should shred a terrible SD defense with all his receivers healthy and off a bye. GL Chargers. They'll need it.
Everyone knows it, but the Saints stink on the road. This team is putrid against good defenses too. They've played six road games this season against Top 15 DVOA pass defenses and they are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS averaging 16.5 PPG. Brees has been especially horrid as he's compiled a 75.6 QB rating in those games with 8 TD and 9 INT. He's been bad every game too with his highest rating being 80. That 75.6 QB rating is worse than Case Keenum, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, EJ Manuel, and Chad Henne. None of those guys are going into Seattle and winning a playoff game against an elite defense and neither is Brees who has shown nothing to suggest he's better than those guys in this type of situation (road against good pass D). Better QB + defense + best HFA in the league is more than enough here.
GL gents.
0
Posted:
#47
SF is so experienced they have only played 4 playoff games with this bunch, with this theory than you should like the Saints but you like Seattle, hypocrisy at its best, I love when they played last time, every collision between a panther and a 49er a 49er would have to go to the sidelines,,i think Tolbert knocked out 3 guys in that last game...panthers big play...gl pnuts
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Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by roastedpeanuts:
Rookie team wet behind the ears, won 11 of 12 and getting pts at home, has the better defense, better dline better lb, best player on the defensive side Luke Kuechly and better qb
trust me, I've made more money on Carolina and been more spot on with them than just about anyone here. Had them vs NE, NO at home, vs tb at home, vs atl at home took no on the road etc...check my threads. This team is good but sf is better and will win. Not sure why I'm wasting my time because you will be nowhere to be found after the game unless of course Carolina pulls it out..Typical covers fasion. GL . NONETHELESS
Rookie team wet behind the ears, won 11 of 12 and getting pts at home, has the better defense, better dline better lb, best player on the defensive side Luke Kuechly and better qb
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