San Francisco 49ers

Great to see you back posting a bit! Great insight and very good information to consider for bothe games! BOL on your plays mac

I laid 9.5 in Denver for 1000 to win 2800

GOOD to cya BOL andarmac

Good to see you posting, andy.  BOL     

Nice to read your cogent thoughts. GL andarmac99.

SF ML for me buddy.  Too much is being made of the 4 road games.  That wasn't a big deal against Zona so really only 3 games and they aren't exactly traveling across the country so not a big deal.  Nobody mentions the clear coaching edge SF has.  Nobody mentions how bad Seattle has been on offense the past month.  They protect Wilson by running and he's not going to beat you, I don't think it's fair to say Wilson is better.  Seattle plays not to lose and was a joke they didn't blow out one of the worst road teams in football.  When the game is on the line late in a close game they will fold because of their conservative nature and I don't like that coaching staff.  Last year getting down big twice in the playoffs isn't what SB teams do, it will catch up to them and SF to me is the clear and easily the better team.  They are the guttiest team in football with the best coach in football.  SF finds a way.  

+280 on a 4.5 point line movement....right......sure ya did

Paid off looking hard at that SF/SEA game. Nice run for SF but too bad they ran into the one team in the one stadium that they weren't going to beat.

I've looked pretty in-depth at the Super Bowl, and perhaps someone smarter than me can tell me why Denver is favored? I'm not seeing it at all. Seattle is clearly the better team to me.

Will have many thoughts on this game before Feb 2.

I hope Denver keeps getting pounded, because this game is a clear mismatch. Seattle by DD.

Fired on Seattle +115.

Don't think the line gets any better. It's already moved a bunch and I think it only goes backwards from here. Especially if there is any hint of inclement weather.

Rick Mirer

My thoughts on this one are pretty simple: I think Seattle is the better team.

The Hawks really don't have a weakness. They are Top 8 DVOA or better on passing offense, rushing offense, passing defense, rushing defense, defense against #1 WR, defense against #WR, defense against RB, defense against TE, and special teams. Doesn't really get any better than that.

Despite their success in the playoffs I am not buying this Denver defense. This was a questionable unit at best this season and they've since lost 5 starters over the 2nd half of the season. Their performance was good against SD and NE, although it should be noted the Denver offense possessed the ball for 35+ minutes in those two games. SD also lost Ryan Mathews to injury and they had one NFL WR in Keenan Allen. A Pats offense devoid of playmakers also failed to do much, and if Brady makes those two throws to open receivers in the 1st half then the game could have been very different. This defense is going to have to play well to win and IMO it's the key to the game.

The Seahawks offense gets some flak but they have faced tough defenses the whole season. Only 6 of their 18 games to this point have come against defenses with a DVOA of worse than 13th. They have performed quite well in those games against weaker defenses though averaging 31.7 PPG and 398 YPG. The defense the Seahawks O will face here is significantly weaker than the ones they've been battling all season.

The Broncos O vs the Seahawks D is the marquee matchup. I do think Denver is going to score some points, but I think they are in relatively tough against this defense. Seattle's D is that good. Dominant at every position. The fact that they don't rely on scheme and disguising their packages because of their talent mitigates the usual advantage Manning would have of having two weeks to prepare. This is the best defense in the league by quite a margin, and they are the 1st D since the '85 Bears to lead the league in points against, yards against, and red zone defense.

There is no defense for the perfect throw and when you get an elite QB slinging bullets there is nothing you can do. I remember a few years ago in the Super Bowl Aaron Rodgers was throwing indefensible darts on a great Pittsburgh D and there was nothing they could do. It was a similar story in the AFC championship a few years ago when Manning was throwing darts on a great Jets defense and nothing could be done. That could happen here but I don't see it for 60 minutes. Manning can't make those pinpoint, laser throws anymore and I don't think those wobblers are going to cut it against this type of defense.

One advantage the Broncos have going for them is experience at the leadership positions. John Elway, John Fox, and Peyton Manning have all been here before. I think they will have a calming influence on the rest of the team. The Seahawks don't have a single player on the 53-man roster who has played in a Super Bowl before and they are also a relatively young team. It's not out of the question they come out pretty jittery. I'm actual holding back from betting more on Seattle now and waiting for some in-game as I think Denver will be the calmer team for the 1st half.

However, over 60 minutes of football I expect the cream to rise to the top. The Hawks will settle down (if they are shaky early). They were a much better 2nd half team all season anyways. I think their defense is going to get some hits on Manning and he'll throw more ducks as the game goes on. There also isn't a QB in the league I trust more than Russel Wilson with a 2nd half deficit. Seattle just appears to be the tougher team too. They are very physical and they've been to war with much tougher teams than Denver all season in the NFC. The Broncos have faced patsy after patsy in the terrible AFC this season. How many times now have we seen these big, sexy, high scoring teams beaten up in big games by tougher teams and defenses?


GL.

Also have two props I love for this game:


Manning longest completion UNDER 38.5 yards

Through 18 games and 591 pass attempts against them this season the Seahawks have only given up FOUR completions longer than this, and one of them was on a tipped pass that luckily landed in the hands of a Saints receiver.

I don't think Manning is going to test this secondary deep. They are too good and he can't throw downfield as well anymore. He knows this and I expect the Broncos to dink and dunk all game. The Seahawks are excellent tacklers in the back 7. They will fly to the ball and wrap up. They allowed the fewest yards after the catch this season in the NFL.


Wes Welker OVER 5.5 receptions

Plays along the lines of the first prop. Manning will likely dink and dunk. I'm not going to guess who Sherman will cover on the outside (he plays 98% of the time on the left side). One thing I know is Welker will be in the slot away from Sherman and Manning will look his way often.

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Cleaned up.

So...did anyone ever figure out why Denver was favored? 

andarmac99, sending you a friend request buddy.  Would like to PM you something. 

Accepted.

Just saw this now.  Great call, buddy.

 as per usual 

Good call