Posted:
#51
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Great to see so many familiar names here. Sorry I didn't get a chance to check back in.
I laid a unit -155 on the SF ML against GB and immediately rolled it over on SF pk -108 after the line opened. Rolling with these guys all the way and hope to turn 1 unit into 12+. Have 1.65 to win 1.53 for this week.
Respect the Panthers, but think they are in very tough. 1st playoff game for this whole group. They've only scored 15.8 PPG against defenses in the top half in terms of points allowed. Their one NFL WR will be severely hampered if he does play at all, and they play an elite D playing at a high level. Not sure they exceed 10 points.
SF has lost 1 road game ATS all season. They are as seasoned as they come. There's always value on the road teams in spots like this when you've got the better group and they are focused/motivated. They won't be intimated a bit and are the type of team that THRIVES in situations like this. We get the standard HFA priced in for Carolina when it doesn't really exist. This line would be SF -4.5/5 on a neutral and instead we get free points. Now that is value.
GL.
Great to see so many familiar names here. Sorry I didn't get a chance to check back in.
I laid a unit -155 on the SF ML against GB and immediately rolled it over on SF pk -108 after the line opened. Rolling with these guys all the way and hope to turn 1 unit into 12+. Have 1.65 to win 1.53 for this week.
Respect the Panthers, but think they are in very tough. 1st playoff game for this whole group. They've only scored 15.8 PPG against defenses in the top half in terms of points allowed. Their one NFL WR will be severely hampered if he does play at all, and they play an elite D playing at a high level. Not sure they exceed 10 points.
SF has lost 1 road game ATS all season. They are as seasoned as they come. There's always value on the road teams in spots like this when you've got the better group and they are focused/motivated. They won't be intimated a bit and are the type of team that THRIVES in situations like this. We get the standard HFA priced in for Carolina when it doesn't really exist. This line would be SF -4.5/5 on a neutral and instead we get free points. Now that is value.
GL.
Agree 100%. I'm with you on the Niners.
Way back in april, I did my yearly futures plays where I take a dark horse AFC and NFC team and take them to win their division, the AFC/NFC, and the Super Bowl. Cincinnati just let me down majorly(not that they were a huge underdog or dark horse), but I took a shot on Carolina because I thought they could have an elite defense when finally healthy, I LOVED their 1st round draft pick who I thought was the final piece of the puzzle for them on D(solidifying their run stoppage), and I really liked how Cam played down the stretch where they went like 5-1 late to finish at 8-8. Early in 2012, the OC got a little too cute with Newton and they got away from that they did best which was power running with their two backs with a sprinkle of Cam on some options. End of the year, they really played good and I thought the odds were crazy high for a team with such promise.
Anyway, now its playoff time and they got a bye and I'm hoping they would get a weaker team in the 1st round. Maybe NO -3.5, or Philly/GB -4.5. That would leave me to where I could bet the dog plus the points in this round and try to get a nice middle for a couple units. And then who knows. They get to the Super Bowl and play a SD type and are -6 setting me up for a 2/3k kind of middle opportunity. Alas, they got the one truly dangerous team in the conference and are dogs in the 1st round so my hopes are pretty much shattered for both my props(huge money for me) and the opp to hedge/middle.
So my wager is on SF PK for 1.5 units(enough to cover my 1/2 unit CAR props plus a few extra bucks) and it is a hedge of sorts, but its a hedge I fully believe in. These are two good football teams but if there's one tougher and meaner team out there than the Panthers, its the niners. Toe to toe, their defenses are both top notch and a challenge for the opposing offenses, but I give the edge in running to SF, and I give the edge for all around playmakers for their QB to SF. You got a hobbled Steve Smith who is their only legit playmaker. I do like the Williams/Tolbert combo(Stewart too if he's playing I have no idea), but it will be tough to run on SF, and I give the edge to Gore and Hunter especially knowing the aggressive front 7 of the panthers will have to watch for Kap to possibly bring out his run option. SF I also have to give the edge to getting pressure on the QB. Panthers have a mighty front 7 of some great athletic and fast football players, but defensively, they play more of a base kind of scheme. They don't blitz as much, and use their talented guys up front to plug the run and stop the short passing game. SF is built more to really bring it and I think they have a better shot of rattling Cam than vice versa. Before I mentioned "play makers" before I got off track, but Kap has his safety blanket back in Crabtree. He has Boldin now free on the other side. Vernon will be firing up the seams and keeping those linebackers busy from keying in on other spots.
Idk, I'll be rooting for Carolina with every inch of my soul Sunday, but I just don't think they can get it done. When I say I took SF for 1.5 units, that's not just me prattling on about my prop chances and talking out loud about a hedge. I really think SF rocks them. 2014 might be Carolina's year though. It they can keep their core team, get ONE last productive year out of 89, spend some money to buy a good/great WR in free agency and then draft a CB or two and hopefully get a stud.....NEXT YEAR could be their year.
Andy, good to see u dude. Hope all is going well with u
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Where do you stand on San Fran against the Hawks and the 12th man?
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