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SB 54 $$ MADDEN SIMULATIONS (8-3/47-29) are Better than 95% of US here

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Posted: #201
Quote Originally Posted by jpot34:

It'll end up 5-5. Then have to do an 11th.


Having an odd # of simulations is of no help.
 
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Posted: #202
Just do 20 sims to commemorate the 2020 SB, it's only fitting. 10 more by Sunday to total 20. 
 
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Posted: #203

Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Yes, I'd appreciate an 11th if it's not too much trouble.  However, 6-5 either way is not exactly a call to action.
I definitely do a 11th Simulation if SF wins the next one ....Thanks for reading and your input ...Here is my betting key though Madden Simulations only suggest Standard wager 7 of 10 ( 1-2 units ) Large wager 8 of 10 ( 3-4 units ) Mortgage wager. 9+ Sims ( 4.5+ units ) ..Ao far the Over is the only suggested play = Over 7 times , 1 Push , 1 Under .....

 

game is a coin toss.  Matchups dictate the over..  OVER...

 
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Posted: #204
Quote Originally Posted by RIZIN_MMA:

Just do 20 sims to commemorate the 2020 SB, it's only fitting. 10 more by Sunday to total 20. 


I believe that I've already found the right formula ...Why change anything at 8-3 /47-29 ???

Another 10+ hours are a waste of Time .....


Let's Make some $$$$


Best of luck Brother


BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #205
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:


Having an odd # of simulations is of no help.

Doing the Final Simulation in the AM ...Really hope KC wins , so I have zero temptation to do another sim ....
.

The OVER is the best play on the board according to the Sims , Score Chart , and GUT !!!!


Best of Luck Brother



BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #206
Simulation #10 

Starts out slow with neither team getting a first down until the 4th possession of the game ...The 49ers go on to drive for 3 yard Jimmy G TD run ....7-0 ...

MAHOMES throws a pick , and SF kicks a FG 10-0 ...

KC puts a nice drive together 

2nd quarter 

T Hill catches a 12 yard Td ...7-10 ...

SF gets to the KC 45 and turns the ball over on downs   .

KC scores on a 27 yard WATKINS TD ....10-14

SF Mostert fumbles , KC kicks a FG 10-17

SF Drives but misses a 52 yd FG 10-17 AT HALF ..



3RD QTR 

SF drives and kicks a 41 yard FG. 13-17 ..

KC gets to the SF 44 and punts ...

SF gets 2 first downs before Jimmy G throws an INT ....

KC Scores on a 37 yard HILL TD catch ...13-24 

SF Drives and scores on a 22 yard BOURNE , Converts 2 point conversion 21-24 ..


4th qtr 

KC drives and kicks a 48 yard FG . Hill caught a bomb down to the 3 yd line, but it was called back for back for illegal man down field ....21-27 ....

SF goes 3 and out ...

KC fumbles the Punt return ...

SF scores on a Samuel 15 yard jet sweep 28-27 ...

KC converts a 4th and 14 before Mahomes is stripped and Greenlaw scores on a 43  yardfumble return ...35-27 

KC runs out of time 



SF WINS 35-27 ....
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #207

Another over on the simulations. Gonna place my bet today I think. I already see a sharp book with 54.5 (sports interaction). Closer it gets to Sunday the higher this climbs I am thinking.

I feel like it's too easy and is shaping up like a bloodbath if the under hits. But I guess that's gambling.

Thanks for your hard work on these sims sim throughout the football seasons brother 

EPL and League Cup action today. Looks like the super chalk though?

Liverpool -349

Manchester City -311

141 pays 241 (-141)

May be better off with some exact score props or both teams score?

Let me know what you think

Good luck brother.

 

 
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Posted: #208
Bol this week Bro
 
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Posted: #209
Simulation Results



SF. 34-24
KC  34-31. OT
KC. 34-27
KC. 31-24
SF. 27-21 
SF.  3O-24. OT 
KC. 38-24.  
SF. 32-27
KC 33-29 
SF. 35-27




Avg points  ( Total Wins )
KC  29.3     (5)  293 Total points 
SF.  29.3.     (5)   293


NOT going to get any tighter than this.   5 wins a piece with the exact same amount of total points scored ...This is the first time that both teams have scored the same amount points after 10 Simulations ...




BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #210
Quote Originally Posted by Mksniper:

Another over on the simulations. Gonna place my bet today I think. I already see a sharp book with 54.5 (sports interaction). Closer it gets to Sunday the higher this climbs I am thinking.

I feel like it's too easy and is shaping up like a bloodbath if the under hits. But I guess that's gambling.

Thanks for your hard work on these sims sim throughout the football seasons brother 

EPL and League Cup action today. Looks like the super chalk though?

Liverpool -349

Manchester City -311

141 pays 241 (-141)

May be better off with some exact score props or both teams score?

Let me know what you think

Good luck brother.

 



The under might be a bloodbath , but I think there is much more money on the sexy Chiefs by the average Joe ....
Joe Bettor usually pounds short chalk , especially when they have the Bettor / more popular QB ...

NO idea who wins this game , you could make a case for either side ....
If it goes under I wouldn't be shocked , but this total probably should be at least 56.5 .....

This might be one of those games where you'll be pulling your hair out if you bet either side large ....KC has the ability to score points in bunches quickly ...While SF should be able to run the rock and keep up ....Could see both defenses creating a couple of turnovers that give their offenses short fields .....


Ive been doing FIFA Sims since 730 am ...Almost done with the LIVERPOOL EPL game ....Will be posting my bets before 1130.   



Best of luck Brother 
Sweep your board
APPRECIATE you reading and posting 



BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #211
West Ham vs LIVERPOOL

Before the season I had high hopes for the Hammers making the Top 10 , and if anything went right maybe top 6 ...
Things have not played out that way on the field ...
As per usual , I'll let the FIFA SIMULATIONS dictate my wagers 




Liverpool at West Ham ( 5 Sims ) 

2-0. Could have been 5-1 ...

3-0.   Reds don't get a ton of chances , but connect on some excellent looks ...

2-1.  Much tighter game..West Ham scored first and played keep away before the Reds scored in the 62nd and 79th ...

2-0.    Reds seemed happy with an early 1-0 lead in the 16th , scored their 2nd goal in rhe 81st ....

3-1.   Sloppy wide open game ..Salah scores 2 , and 5 out of the 12 total goals ...




Keeping it light since the Reds could call of the dogs with a quick turnaround vs Southampton on Saturday afternoon ...
I'll be happy with LIVERPOOL just walking away with 3 points ..






Exact score appears the way to go 
2-0.  +700.  $29/203
3-0.   +850.   $28/238
3-1   +1100.    $13/143
4-1    +1800.    6/108
5-1.    +3300.    5/165
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #212
Quote Originally Posted by vankiep_0007:

Bol this week Bro

Thank you Brother
Best of luck 
Sweep your board 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #213
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

West Ham vs LIVERPOOL

Before the season I had high hopes for the Hammers making the Top 10 , and if anything went right maybe top 6 ...
Things have not played out that way on the field ...
As per usual , I'll let the FIFA SIMULATIONS dictate my wagers 




Liverpool at West Ham ( 5 Sims ) 

2-0. Could have been 5-1 ...

3-0.   Reds don't get a ton of chances , but connect on some excellent looks ...

2-1.  Much tighter game..West Ham scored first and played keep away before the Reds scored in the 62nd and 79th ...

2-0.    Reds seemed happy with an early 1-0 lead in the 16th , scored their 2nd goal in rhe 81st ....

3-1.   Sloppy wide open game ..Salah scores 2 , and 5 out of the 12 total goals ...




Keeping it light since the Reds could call of the dogs with a quick turnaround vs Southampton on Saturday afternoon ...
I'll be happy with LIVERPOOL just walking away with 3 points ..






Exact score appears the way to go 
2-0.  +700.  $29/203
3-0.   +850.   $28/238
3-1   +1100.    $13/143
4-1    +1800.    6/108
5-1.    +3300.    5/165




LIVERPOOL wins 2-0 

+$151 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #214

Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

West Ham vs LIVERPOOLBefore the season I had high hopes for the Hammers making the Top 10 , and if anything went right maybe top 6 ...Things have not played out that way on the field ...As per usual , I'll let the FIFA SIMULATIONS dictate my wagers Liverpool at West Ham ( 5 Sims ) 2-0. Could have been 5-1 ...3-0.   Reds don't get a ton of chances , but connect on some excellent looks ...2-1.  Much tighter game..West Ham scored first and played keep away before the Reds scored in the 62nd and 79th ...2-0.    Reds seemed happy with an early 1-0 lead in the 16th , scored their 2nd goal in rhe 81st ....3-1.   Sloppy wide open game ..Salah scores 2 , and 5 out of the 12 total goals ...Keeping it light since the Reds could call of the dogs with a quick turnaround vs Southampton on Saturday afternoon ...I'll be happy with LIVERPOOL just walking away with 3 points ..Exact score appears the way to go 2-0.  +700.  $29/2033-0.   +850.   $28/2383-1   +1100.    $13/1434-1    +1800.    6/1085-1.    +3300.    5/165
LIVERPOOL wins 2-0 +$151

Nice job brother.

I tailed the exact score props with you and took Liverpool -1.

Big upset by Man United in the other game I was watching. City had so many opportunities as well.

Just binked second in a online poker tourney on Sports Interaction. I deposited a hundred bucks on there because they have all of the exotic props that Bet365 doesn't have. God I miss the good ole days when PokerStars was packed with drunk idiots. Some of these Sportsbook poker rooms are so soft.

Don Juan is going KC and I already liked it. The DEGEN in me can't just bet the Over.

Good luck brother.

 
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Posted: #215
Quote Originally Posted by Mksniper:

LIVERPOOL wins 2-0 +$151

Nice job brother.

I tailed the exact score props with you and took Liverpool -1.

Big upset by Man United in the other game I was watching. City had so many opportunities as well.

Just binked second in a online poker tourney on Sports Interaction. I deposited a hundred bucks on there because they have all of the exotic props that Bet365 doesn't have. God I miss the good ole days when PokerStars was packed with drunk idiots. Some of these Sportsbook poker rooms are so soft.

Don Juan is going KC and I already liked it. The DEGEN in me can't just bet the Over.

Good luck brother.



I miss pokerstars as well ....

Not a fan of driving up to the casino to play poker once or twice a month ...There were so many donkeyes online that couldn't fold , and seemed to have endless money to lose ...

Nothing wrong with tailing Don Juan ..Hard not to when he is 15-3 ......

Best of luck Brother 
Sweep your board 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #216
Super Bowl Standard Wagers 


Mortgage play 

OVER 54 -105 
$1050/1000




Standard wager 

Game Winning margin within 7.5 points -109 
$218/200 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #217
Super Bowl MVP 

just taking some shots 
Don't want to take the mega chalk QBs 

Bosa +2200.   $30.20
 Could get a few sacks , including a game clinching one ..
Makes a ton of plays in the sims .


Frank Clark +7500.  $6.80
What if he lives on the backfield ???

Hardman +7500. $7.20 
  The forgotten man  ...This is probably the worst bet I've made in a long time ...
Might only see the ball on returns .

Bourne +17500. $3.20
   What if he catches the game winning TD , or scores twice ?

Gould +12500.  $4.80
 Might need to kick 5+ field goals including the game winner 

Kwon Alexander  $6.10
+15000. 
Would need to make many huge plays , but a game saving sack might be enough 

Suggs. +20000. 2.70
Had 2 huge games in the sims 

Sorensen +25000. $2.50
 Played like rhe MVP in the 2nd half vs Titans ...

Butker +32500.  $1.75 
Might need to kick 7+ field goals including game winner 

Tartt +15000   $4
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #218
SUPER BOWL PROPS 



SF Wins by 1-6 Points +420 
$50/210 

KC WINS BY 1-12 POINT +179
$70/$125.30


MAHOMES throws INT +100.  $35/35
+110.  $50/55 
Leagues top rated pass D 



M Hardman Over 1.5 +125. 
$20/25
+115. $10/11.50 . I know he's only caught 2+ balls in 1 of the last 8 games ...
This is probably one of my worst wagers , but it's not like Watkins is known for staying healthy ..


Demi Lovato leaves word out of Anthem +650 
$5/32.50
+550. $10/55
Will piss off the Mrs. When I say "wow Demi's looking good and Thicc now "


Dicktator Trump tweets during game -160
$40/25
-135.    $108/80 
He is raging right now ,  believe he had 84 yesterday (  before 2 PM) 


Either team wins by exactly 6 points +1625 
$8/$130
Either team wins by exactly 3 or 7 points +241 
$10/24.10


Total yardage of all TDS over 102.5 -120
30/25 
Had some  very long ones on the sims 


Both teams have a lead in 4th qtr or ot +250
$60/150
Made for TV !!! 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #219
Continued 

Total points scored 
50-59. +190.   $53/100.70
60-69.    +410.    $30/123


First song by J Lopez 
Waiting for tonight +1100.  $14/154
Let's get loud. +200.  $10/20


Nick Bosa Over 3.5 total tackles ( solo and assists ) +120 
$50/60
Has gone over in last 3 games


T HILL over 74.5 rec yards -110
77/70
He is racking up huge stats in the Sims ...


T HILL -1.5 REC YARDS VS KITTLE -105 
73.50/70
Hill beat in Kittle in all 10 sims ...
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #220
Hey if you don't mind real quick you never got back to me can you check just a couple of those important Madden player ratings?

Say Nick Bosa overall rating and George Kittle?

I'm just curious if you have the ratings that are still underrating Bosa or other really important players. I've seen ratings that have him in the 70s which is obviously way too low and other ratings that have him high 80s which makes way more sense
 
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Posted: #221
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

Hey if you don't mind real quick you never got back to me can you check just a couple of those important Madden player ratings?

Say Nick Bosa overall rating and George Kittle?

I'm just curious if you have the ratings that are still underrating Bosa or other really important players. I've seen ratings that have him in the 70s which is obviously way too low and other ratings that have him high 80s which makes way more sense


Sorry Brother ...Thought I responded ...Must have forgot ....
Player Ratings update throughout the season ....Here are the starters for each team. ..
SF. 88.    KC 83   overall  team ratings 

KC 
Jimmy G     85
MAHOMES   99 

Rb 
Mostert  81
Coleman    83
Brieda  82 

D Williams 82 
McCoy.  81 

FB 
SHERMAN 74
Jusczyk.  86 


WR 

HILL 96 
Watkins 81 
D Robinson. 76 
Hardman 75 

Sanders 89 
Samuel  78
Bourne 76 
Pettis 77 

TE 
Kittle 97
Celek 72 
KELCE  96 
Bell 67



The rest can be found here 

https://www.easports.com/madden-nfl/player-ratings


BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #222
Woodbine 

The Early Pick 5 looks brutal , don't think playing it is worth spending the small fortune it might take to win it ...


Loving the #7 Easy Flyer in race 2 ...Singling him in the Pick 3 for $1 ...Hoping for a Longshot or 2 in the other Legs ....

$1 Pick 3 
Race 1.    1,2,6,7,8
Race 2.      7 
Race 3.    4,6,7,8,9,10
Cost $30 








60 cent pick 4 
Race 4.    1,2,4,6,7
Race 5.     2,7
Race. 6.    7,8
Race 7.     2,4,6 
Cost $36 .....


Plan on betting either the late pick 5 and or Pick 4 as well . 



BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #223
Mohawk early pick 5

123678
All
4
46
12379

$84 for a 20 cent ticket
 
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Posted: #224
Early pick 4

146
279
2578
246
 
 
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Posted: #225
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Super Bowl Standard Wagers 


Mortgage play 

OVER 54 -105 

$1050/1000


Hi my brother,


We all know there is no easy money.  With so much bets on over,  What do you think?  how the casinos make money from this SuperBowl?

















Standard wager 

Game Winning margin within 7.5 points -109 
$218/200 
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