Hey Suuma.....been busy but great call.....hope you had an ice cold Veltins tonight....... will be following you....think you will be on fire this year....BOL......
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Hey Suuma.....been busy but great call.....hope you had an ice cold Veltins tonight....... will be following you....think you will be on fire this year....BOL......
Thanks guys. Good to kick the season off with a winner. Personally, I think the game shouldn’t have been close. Carolina caught the breaks in the first half. Doesn’t matter, on to the next one. Just keep in mind what I’ve been saying all summer: the Panthers are overrated and we will get some good fade opportunities this year. Trevor Siemian moved the ball downfield easily behind a bad offensive line.
@TheAction: Never play a line between 1 and 2.5, always take the ML! It is much more profitable for your ROI in the long run. Statistically, the spread of 1 to 2.5 comes into play just 4% or 6% of the time, don’t have the exact number right now. It’s money left on the table longterm. Yesterday the Jets were +125 on the ML and -105/-110 on the spread. That’s a 35% difference.
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Thanks guys. Good to kick the season off with a winner. Personally, I think the game shouldn’t have been close. Carolina caught the breaks in the first half. Doesn’t matter, on to the next one. Just keep in mind what I’ve been saying all summer: the Panthers are overrated and we will get some good fade opportunities this year. Trevor Siemian moved the ball downfield easily behind a bad offensive line.
@TheAction: Never play a line between 1 and 2.5, always take the ML! It is much more profitable for your ROI in the long run. Statistically, the spread of 1 to 2.5 comes into play just 4% or 6% of the time, don’t have the exact number right now. It’s money left on the table longterm. Yesterday the Jets were +125 on the ML and -105/-110 on the spread. That’s a 35% difference.
My sign in name is obsessed..I am a female who is and has been obsessed with football for a very long time..I have been watching your picks and playing your picks..I am looking forward to following you on your picks..I need all the help I can get..
Thanks obsessed.
Hey Doug, don't let Carrie find out about this....
She might get jealous and tear off your foot-balls....
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Quote Originally Posted by obsessed:
Hi Suuma,
My sign in name is obsessed..I am a female who is and has been obsessed with football for a very long time..I have been watching your picks and playing your picks..I am looking forward to following you on your picks..I need all the help I can get..
Thanks obsessed.
Hey Doug, don't let Carrie find out about this....
She might get jealous and tear off your foot-balls....
Thanks Suuma nice start. I posted this a few pages back, but think it got lost in the thread - Thanks Suuma. Love these write-ups. Could you clarify or expand what you mean by - As posted recently, the Titans fit my 16-3 ATS regression trend.
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Thanks Suuma nice start. I posted this a few pages back, but think it got lost in the thread - Thanks Suuma. Love these write-ups. Could you clarify or expand what you mean by - As posted recently, the Titans fit my 16-3 ATS regression trend.
Thanks Suuma nice start. I posted this a few pages back, but think it got lost in the thread - Thanks Suuma. Love these write-ups. Could you clarify or expand what you mean by - As posted recently, the Titans fit my 16-3 ATS regression trend.
This isn't supposed to be a website promotion. It's just my free blog.
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Quote Originally Posted by brettcards:
Thanks Suuma nice start. I posted this a few pages back, but think it got lost in the thread - Thanks Suuma. Love these write-ups. Could you clarify or expand what you mean by - As posted recently, the Titans fit my 16-3 ATS regression trend.
Suuma, your blog is great. Thanks for the thorough write ups, your professionalism and most importantly the manner in which you control this thread, always keeping it civil.
I think this could be the year of the week 1 dogs - just like in 2014.
GLTA
The pen is mightier than the pigs
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Suuma, your blog is great. Thanks for the thorough write ups, your professionalism and most importantly the manner in which you control this thread, always keeping it civil.
I think this could be the year of the week 1 dogs - just like in 2014.
What will it take from the Broncos O line so you do not think they are "bad"
Do not believe what you read. This line is built just as it was supposed to be and it easily dominated the Panthers great 7.
CJ Anderson 20 for 92 and the fullback with a huge run in the game for a TD.
They fit the Kubiak scheme of running downhill, does not matter how they grade out, they will only get better with time and playing together. Hopefully, they can stay healthy.....
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What will it take from the Broncos O line so you do not think they are "bad"
Do not believe what you read. This line is built just as it was supposed to be and it easily dominated the Panthers great 7.
CJ Anderson 20 for 92 and the fullback with a huge run in the game for a TD.
They fit the Kubiak scheme of running downhill, does not matter how they grade out, they will only get better with time and playing together. Hopefully, they can stay healthy.....
Line moving in Atlanta's favor to -2.5, seems like Tampa is a public dog. To me they are overhyped, and definitely a year away. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan has a great record in home openers, and the Falcons have double revenge.
Do you have a lean here?
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Suuma, I'm wondering about TB-Atlanta
Line moving in Atlanta's favor to -2.5, seems like Tampa is a public dog. To me they are overhyped, and definitely a year away. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan has a great record in home openers, and the Falcons have double revenge.
Thanks Suuma nice start. I posted this a few pages back, but think it got lost in the thread - Thanks Suuma. Love these write-ups. Could you clarify or expand what you mean by - As posted recently, the Titans fit my 16-3 ATS regression trend.
https://nflcapping.wordpress.com/2016/08/22/16-3-ats-regression-trend-for-week-one/This isn't supposed to be a website promotion. It's just my free blog.
Hey Summa I see your on the Seahawks -10 on your blog but I remember you saying u may have been leaning the Phins a month ago. Any reason for the change of heart? I like the Phins D line this year and the Seahawks are facing ANOTHER injury on that already weak offensive line.
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Quote Originally Posted by brettcards:
Thanks Suuma nice start. I posted this a few pages back, but think it got lost in the thread - Thanks Suuma. Love these write-ups. Could you clarify or expand what you mean by - As posted recently, the Titans fit my 16-3 ATS regression trend.
https://nflcapping.wordpress.com/2016/08/22/16-3-ats-regression-trend-for-week-one/This isn't supposed to be a website promotion. It's just my free blog.
Hey Summa I see your on the Seahawks -10 on your blog but I remember you saying u may have been leaning the Phins a month ago. Any reason for the change of heart? I like the Phins D line this year and the Seahawks are facing ANOTHER injury on that already weak offensive line.
@TheAction: Never play a line between 1 and 2.5, always take the ML! It is much more profitable for your ROI in the long run. Statistically, the spread of 1 to 2.5 comes into play just 4% or 6% of the time, don’t have the exact number right now. It’s money left on the table longterm. Yesterday the Jets were +125 on the ML and -105/-110 on the spread. That’s a 35% difference.
Damn. I wish I saw this about 10 minutes ago... I just took Jets +2.5 for -110. I was waiting for it to go from +2.5 -105 to +3 at -110 and it went the other way so I placed the bet. Lesson learned - hopefully this will be one of those 4-6% games.
BOL!
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
@TheAction: Never play a line between 1 and 2.5, always take the ML! It is much more profitable for your ROI in the long run. Statistically, the spread of 1 to 2.5 comes into play just 4% or 6% of the time, don’t have the exact number right now. It’s money left on the table longterm. Yesterday the Jets were +125 on the ML and -105/-110 on the spread. That’s a 35% difference.
Damn. I wish I saw this about 10 minutes ago... I just took Jets +2.5 for -110. I was waiting for it to go from +2.5 -105 to +3 at -110 and it went the other way so I placed the bet. Lesson learned - hopefully this will be one of those 4-6% games.
@TheAction: Never play a line between 1 and 2.5, always take the ML! It is much more profitable for your ROI in the long run. Statistically, the spread of 1 to 2.5 comes into play just 4% or 6% of the time, don’t have the exact number right now. It’s money left on the table longterm. Yesterday the Jets were +125 on the ML and -105/-110 on the spread. That’s a 35% difference.
You cannot logically compare the % chance of the points coming into play to the % change in cents on the line. It's apples and oranges.
The change in breakeven win rate from -110 to +120 (most MLs on Jets are +115 or +120) is 6.9%.
What are the chances of a spread of 2.5 coming into play? If it's less than 6.9%, bet the ML. If it's more, bet the spread.
Please don't count the chance the of +1 or +2 in your sample, they're of course going to bias your % down.
I believe the actual chance is about 6.6%, so the ML seems a little better, but only a
little.
Having said that, Golden Nugget in Vegas and CRIS/Bookmaker offshore are both offering Jets ML +125, which is really good. If you have access to those numbers and like the Jets, take it (I did).
But do not get in the bad habit of thinking that you just always bet small dogs on the ML instead of the points. In every case, do the math, because every case will be different.
Any other questions, see me here: https://twitter.com/truepokerjoe
Good luck, and I hope it doesn't seem like I'm busting suuma's balls here.
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
@TheAction: Never play a line between 1 and 2.5, always take the ML! It is much more profitable for your ROI in the long run. Statistically, the spread of 1 to 2.5 comes into play just 4% or 6% of the time, don’t have the exact number right now. It’s money left on the table longterm. Yesterday the Jets were +125 on the ML and -105/-110 on the spread. That’s a 35% difference.
You cannot logically compare the % chance of the points coming into play to the % change in cents on the line. It's apples and oranges.
The change in breakeven win rate from -110 to +120 (most MLs on Jets are +115 or +120) is 6.9%.
What are the chances of a spread of 2.5 coming into play? If it's less than 6.9%, bet the ML. If it's more, bet the spread.
Please don't count the chance the of +1 or +2 in your sample, they're of course going to bias your % down.
I believe the actual chance is about 6.6%, so the ML seems a little better, but only a
little.
Having said that, Golden Nugget in Vegas and CRIS/Bookmaker offshore are both offering Jets ML +125, which is really good. If you have access to those numbers and like the Jets, take it (I did).
But do not get in the bad habit of thinking that you just always bet small dogs on the ML instead of the points. In every case, do the math, because every case will be different.
Any other questions, see me here: https://twitter.com/truepokerjoe
Good luck, and I hope it doesn't seem like I'm busting suuma's balls here.
Suuma, your blog is great. Thanks for the thorough write ups, your professionalism and most importantly the manner in which you control this thread, always keeping it civil.
I think this could be the year of the week 1 dogs - just like in 2014.
GLTA
Thanks man, appreciate it! Hopefully the dogs will be barking
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Quote Originally Posted by barneybeans:
Suuma, your blog is great. Thanks for the thorough write ups, your professionalism and most importantly the manner in which you control this thread, always keeping it civil.
I think this could be the year of the week 1 dogs - just like in 2014.
GLTA
Thanks man, appreciate it! Hopefully the dogs will be barking
Hey Summa I see your on the Seahawks -10 on your blog but I remember you saying u may have been leaning the Phins a month ago. Any reason for the change of heart? I like the Phins D line this year and the Seahawks are facing ANOTHER injury on that already weak offensive line.
I have been leaning Fins all summer but something is holding me back. Rookie HC in his first start at Seattle plus they would somehow fit my regression system. Will the Miami pass rush be monstrous in week one? If not, the Seahawks are going to pick that Miami defense completely apart. That's just my concern and I might just stay away from that game.
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Quote Originally Posted by nygjmap:
Hey Summa I see your on the Seahawks -10 on your blog but I remember you saying u may have been leaning the Phins a month ago. Any reason for the change of heart? I like the Phins D line this year and the Seahawks are facing ANOTHER injury on that already weak offensive line.
I have been leaning Fins all summer but something is holding me back. Rookie HC in his first start at Seattle plus they would somehow fit my regression system. Will the Miami pass rush be monstrous in week one? If not, the Seahawks are going to pick that Miami defense completely apart. That's just my concern and I might just stay away from that game.
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