Posted:
#101
Smart, I completely agree here. I have learned the hard way that in many
games the matchup simply doesn't matter. I did extended research on
that. For example, the psychological situation a team is in, can trump
everything but it's not reflected in the spread. These situations can
often be translated into statistical trends. That's why it's called "on
any given Sunday". In 2015 I worked to much with fundamentals and I fell
for a lot of traps last season and that won't happen again. Now my way
of capping combines those four main factors:
Situational/psychological angles
Fundamentals
Public perception vs. reality -> line value
The "integrity" of the NFL
Some of these do correlate with each other. Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have been outscored 0-94 during the playoffs in first halfs when they had an early east coast start. Last year the Jets were off a close game at Foxboro, had to travel to Oakland and missed 20 tackles during that game. The Rams were off their home opening OT win vs. the Seahawks, had to travel coast to coast to Washington and lost 10-24 as -4 favs. Sometimes teams just aren't ready to play a certain game/opponent because the spot doesn't allow their minds and bodies to prepare 100%.
another fine post imo xs and os are so overated. there is so much randomness in the nfl on each play that just cos player a is better than player b blah blah blah or this o line is better than this d line etc mean nothing to me. to me its all about situational spots and line value because without doubt there are flat spots etc and you are always betting against the line so that is where you need to find a percieved edge. gl again
Situational/psychological angles
Fundamentals
Public perception vs. reality -> line value
The "integrity" of the NFL
Some of these do correlate with each other. Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have been outscored 0-94 during the playoffs in first halfs when they had an early east coast start. Last year the Jets were off a close game at Foxboro, had to travel to Oakland and missed 20 tackles during that game. The Rams were off their home opening OT win vs. the Seahawks, had to travel coast to coast to Washington and lost 10-24 as -4 favs. Sometimes teams just aren't ready to play a certain game/opponent because the spot doesn't allow their minds and bodies to prepare 100%.
another fine post imo xs and os are so overated. there is so much randomness in the nfl on each play that just cos player a is better than player b blah blah blah or this o line is better than this d line etc mean nothing to me. to me its all about situational spots and line value because without doubt there are flat spots etc and you are always betting against the line so that is where you need to find a percieved edge. gl again
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