Bengals @ Jets
I am very cautious with the Jets this year, because this time they play a schedule on which teams are able to expose Ryan Fitzpatrick and the mediocre offensive line. But I really like their week one matchup against the Bengals. You can’t run on the Jets (best run DVOA by far in 2015) and that’s what the Bengals need to do in order to avoid a lot of difficult passing situations with a completely downgraded receiving corps. Andy Dalton was put into the perfect QB situation in 2015 but it won’t be so perfect in 2016. He will regress to the mean. It is the same scenario than in 2014: without Jones & Eifert, you can handcuff Green and the offense is limited. Revis is fresh off a wrist surgery, an injury that limited him in 2015. People say he declined but he still allowed the lowest completion percentage of all qualifying CBs at 44.2%. I don’t see how Tyler Boyd can step into Jones’ shoes right out of the gate. Personally, I would make this line -3 in favor of the Jets. No homerism here, I just don’t see what others see in the Bengals early on without Eifert and Burfict. The Jets defense is going to win this game alone. Todd Bowles is at his best when he knows what he is getting, and he knows what he gets from the Bengals offense. The Jets offense won’t be as much challenged as the Bengals offense will be and Marshall & Decker will once again create their fair share of mismatches against an average Bengals secondary. Give me Jets at plus money in what I expect to be a low scoring affair. Something like 20-10 Jets.
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
I thought I would stay away from
this game but recent personnel development and the line value have made
me leaning Jaguars at this point. The Packers will be without Josh
Sitton and Corey Linsley, their offensive line
anchors. Their replacements have a combined five career starts and have
to line up against a deep defensive line in the heat of Jacksonville.
It’s expected to be 90+ degrees Fahrenheit in Jacksonville on Sunday.
This is a significant advantage for the home
team. Jordy Nelson had his first full-go practice on Tuesday and isn’t
expected to see major snaps. Packers already said that they are likely
going to rotate a lot due to the weather conditions. The Jaguars won’t
be able to shut down Rodgers but they are young
and talented and can generate a few key stops without Jordy on the
field against that offensive line. Also the Packers have their most important game in week two, at Minnesota.
On the other side I trust the catch radius and air adjustments of Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson much more than I trust Blake Bortles, but that WR corps is a solid matchup for a very young Packers secondary that will miss Casey Hayward early on. The middle of the Packers defense is vulnerable with Jake Ryan and Blake Martinez being 24 and 22 years old. I have some decent hopes in Blake Martinez but this tandem is so young and inexperienced to believe they will anchor this defense. Julius Thomas and Chris Ivory could have big games.
All in all I believe the Packers are a solid fade at +5.5/+6. +6 would be nice. This has also backdoor cover written on it.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
