Posted:
#51
Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:
SUUMA, I appreciate your thoughtful reports and look forward to getting your perspective on the games this season. You certainly put in the time, and give interesting info that is often overlooked by the media. Having said that, I will often differ on your picks, as before, as I am relying more on long established statistical trends that I have been able to verify in over 30 years of NFL games. I have found in my modeling that while colorful angles are fantastic and part of the entertainment value of games, the solid logic they are built on does not translate to ATS success as compared with verifiable statistical rules built on methods that while accurate often prove to be counterintuitive. So while I love your angles, and you often bring out aspects of the games we all overlook, I am far more convinced that my approach with less investment on the "reporters angle" and more on complex prediction devoid of emotion in thought is the better way to go. This method is in its infancy of being proven successful, and I have to go back to previous threads, but I'm pretty sure I was batting around 60% success ATS once I started going public with it over a good number of weeks. Anyway, just sharing my strong belief, and this takes,nothing away from your incredibly colorful reports. You need to be on ESPN soon! I will stick to my passion for the most accurate prediction possible regardless of what reason would suggest. In numbers I trust! But keep up your great reports and I will keep sharing what my numbers indicate.
SUUMA, I appreciate your thoughtful reports and look forward to getting your perspective on the games this season. You certainly put in the time, and give interesting info that is often overlooked by the media. Having said that, I will often differ on your picks, as before, as I am relying more on long established statistical trends that I have been able to verify in over 30 years of NFL games. I have found in my modeling that while colorful angles are fantastic and part of the entertainment value of games, the solid logic they are built on does not translate to ATS success as compared with verifiable statistical rules built on methods that while accurate often prove to be counterintuitive. So while I love your angles, and you often bring out aspects of the games we all overlook, I am far more convinced that my approach with less investment on the "reporters angle" and more on complex prediction devoid of emotion in thought is the better way to go. This method is in its infancy of being proven successful, and I have to go back to previous threads, but I'm pretty sure I was batting around 60% success ATS once I started going public with it over a good number of weeks. Anyway, just sharing my strong belief, and this takes,nothing away from your incredibly colorful reports. You need to be on ESPN soon! I will stick to my passion for the most accurate prediction possible regardless of what reason would suggest. In numbers I trust! But keep up your great reports and I will keep sharing what my numbers indicate.
Smart, I completely agree here. I have learned the hard way that in many games the matchup simply doesn't matter. I did extended research on that. For example, the psychological situation a team is in, can trump everything but it's not reflected in the spread. These situations can often be translated into statistical trends. That's why it's called "on any given Sunday". In 2015 I worked to much with fundamentals and I fell for a lot of traps last season and that won't happen again. Now my way of capping combines those four main factors:
Situational/psychological angles
Fundamentals
Public perception vs. reality -> line value
The "integrity" of the NFL
Some of these do correlate with each other. Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have been outscored 0-94 during the playoffs in first halfs when they had an early east coast start. Last year the Jets were off a close game at Foxboro, had to travel to Oakland and missed 20 tackles during that game. The Rams were off their home opening OT win vs. the Seahawks, had to travel coast to coast to Washington and lost 10-24 as -4 favs. Sometimes teams just aren't ready to play a certain game/opponent because the spot doesn't allow their minds and bodies to prepare 100%.
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lets hope ur right!
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