I am new in betting NFL but not with MLB and Basketball. I would like to try betting NFL since I am starting to get hook in the sports. Any tips for a beginner like me Sir? Thanks.
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You have any Leans for today Sir?
I am new in betting NFL but not with MLB and Basketball. I would like to try betting NFL since I am starting to get hook in the sports. Any tips for a beginner like me Sir? Thanks.
You cannot logically compare the % chance of the points coming into play to the % change in cents on the line. It's apples and oranges.
The change in breakeven win rate from -110 to +120 (most MLs on Jets are +115 or +120) is 6.9%.
What are the chances of a spread of 2.5 coming into play? If it's less than 6.9%, bet the ML. If it's more, bet the spread.
Please don't count the chance the of +1 or +2 in your sample, they're of course going to bias your % down.
I believe the actual chance is about 6.6%, so the ML seems a little better, but only a
little.
Having said that, Golden Nugget in Vegas and CRIS/Bookmaker offshore are both offering Jets ML +125, which is really good. If you have access to those numbers and like the Jets, take it (I did).
But do not get in the bad habit of thinking that you just always bet small dogs on the ML instead of the points. In every case, do the math, because every case will be different.
Any other questions, see me here: https://twitter.com/truepokerjoe
Good luck, and I hope it doesn't seem like I'm busting suuma's balls here.
Pokerjoe, thanks for checking by. I think this is worth an own thread and I will do some more research next week.
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Quote Originally Posted by truepokerjoe:
You cannot logically compare the % chance of the points coming into play to the % change in cents on the line. It's apples and oranges.
The change in breakeven win rate from -110 to +120 (most MLs on Jets are +115 or +120) is 6.9%.
What are the chances of a spread of 2.5 coming into play? If it's less than 6.9%, bet the ML. If it's more, bet the spread.
Please don't count the chance the of +1 or +2 in your sample, they're of course going to bias your % down.
I believe the actual chance is about 6.6%, so the ML seems a little better, but only a
little.
Having said that, Golden Nugget in Vegas and CRIS/Bookmaker offshore are both offering Jets ML +125, which is really good. If you have access to those numbers and like the Jets, take it (I did).
But do not get in the bad habit of thinking that you just always bet small dogs on the ML instead of the points. In every case, do the math, because every case will be different.
Any other questions, see me here: https://twitter.com/truepokerjoe
Good luck, and I hope it doesn't seem like I'm busting suuma's balls here.
Pokerjoe, thanks for checking by. I think this is worth an own thread and I will do some more research next week.
I am new in betting NFL but not with MLB and Basketball. I would like to try betting NFL since I am starting to get hook in the sports. Any tips for a beginner like me Sir? Thanks.
That's a good question. I could probably write a small book with all my experiences and situations I have learned. I wouldn't know where to start and there are different philosophies when it comes to betting.
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Quote Originally Posted by DGambler25:
You have any Leans for today Sir?
I am new in betting NFL but not with MLB and Basketball. I would like to try betting NFL since I am starting to get hook in the sports. Any tips for a beginner like me Sir? Thanks.
That's a good question. I could probably write a small book with all my experiences and situations I have learned. I wouldn't know where to start and there are different philosophies when it comes to betting.
I have been leaning Fins all summer but something is holding me back. Rookie HC in his first start at Seattle plus they would somehow fit my regression system. Will the Miami pass rush be monstrous in week one? If not, the Seahawks are going to pick that Miami defense completely apart. That's just my concern and I might just stay away from that game.
Suuma:
I love the lucidity you bring to this forum
I know you are a DVOA guy; Seattle finished #2 in Offensive DVOA in 2015 despite the fact that "the narrative" tells us that their Offensive Line blows
"The narrative" continues this year with the exact same theme
Given Seattle's ongoing offensive efficiency, where exactly is the correlation between having a "stud" offensive line, and delivering offensive production?
How important is it, exactly, to have a "stud" offensive line?
Seattle has an opportunity to get off to a fast start in 2016, just like 2013
Carroll and his team knows it
This is the best team in the NFL; 4 consecutive DVOA titles and projected #1 for 2016
Seattle covers the -10.5 on Sunday
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
I have been leaning Fins all summer but something is holding me back. Rookie HC in his first start at Seattle plus they would somehow fit my regression system. Will the Miami pass rush be monstrous in week one? If not, the Seahawks are going to pick that Miami defense completely apart. That's just my concern and I might just stay away from that game.
Suuma:
I love the lucidity you bring to this forum
I know you are a DVOA guy; Seattle finished #2 in Offensive DVOA in 2015 despite the fact that "the narrative" tells us that their Offensive Line blows
"The narrative" continues this year with the exact same theme
Given Seattle's ongoing offensive efficiency, where exactly is the correlation between having a "stud" offensive line, and delivering offensive production?
How important is it, exactly, to have a "stud" offensive line?
Seattle has an opportunity to get off to a fast start in 2016, just like 2013
Carroll and his team knows it
This is the best team in the NFL; 4 consecutive DVOA titles and projected #1 for 2016
I know you are a DVOA guy; Seattle finished #2 in Offensive DVOA in 2015 despite the fact that "the narrative" tells us that their Offensive Line blows
"The narrative" continues this year with the exact same theme
Given Seattle's ongoing offensive efficiency, where exactly is the correlation between having a "stud" offensive line, and delivering offensive production?
How important is it, exactly, to have a "stud" offensive line?
Seattle has an opportunity to get off to a fast start in 2016, just like 2013
Carroll and his team knows it
This is the best team in the NFL; 4 consecutive DVOA titles and projected #1 for 2016
Seattle covers the -10.5 on Sunday
Yes, you are right. Completely agree. They are a dangerous team, especially on offense. In the 2nd half of 2015, they posted record-setting DVOA numbers. They worked on overcoming that offensive line and Wilson played on a true MVP-level. If they adjust their offense properly, it's hard to stop them. That's what's holding me back from betting against them.
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Quote Originally Posted by Wess_Tijuana:
Suuma:
I love the lucidity you bring to this forum
I know you are a DVOA guy; Seattle finished #2 in Offensive DVOA in 2015 despite the fact that "the narrative" tells us that their Offensive Line blows
"The narrative" continues this year with the exact same theme
Given Seattle's ongoing offensive efficiency, where exactly is the correlation between having a "stud" offensive line, and delivering offensive production?
How important is it, exactly, to have a "stud" offensive line?
Seattle has an opportunity to get off to a fast start in 2016, just like 2013
Carroll and his team knows it
This is the best team in the NFL; 4 consecutive DVOA titles and projected #1 for 2016
Seattle covers the -10.5 on Sunday
Yes, you are right. Completely agree. They are a dangerous team, especially on offense. In the 2nd half of 2015, they posted record-setting DVOA numbers. They worked on overcoming that offensive line and Wilson played on a true MVP-level. If they adjust their offense properly, it's hard to stop them. That's what's holding me back from betting against them.
suuma, the write up about the bengals @ jets game looks really good, and then the pick makes a lot of sence, no doubt about that.
But one thing is what it looks on the paper and another thing it's what will happen.
You say that the bengals don't have good WR corps and then will have a lot of troubles on passing game, and on the running game the jets defense will handle them.
I would like to know how you see the possibility of Andy Dalton still do pretty good with that WR corps and the possibility of Jeremy Hill and Giovani bernard beat their defense.
Again, what you wrote makes a lot of sence, and i don't desegree with you, but would like to know your toughts on that.
Thank you and BOL for the first sunday
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suuma, the write up about the bengals @ jets game looks really good, and then the pick makes a lot of sence, no doubt about that.
But one thing is what it looks on the paper and another thing it's what will happen.
You say that the bengals don't have good WR corps and then will have a lot of troubles on passing game, and on the running game the jets defense will handle them.
I would like to know how you see the possibility of Andy Dalton still do pretty good with that WR corps and the possibility of Jeremy Hill and Giovani bernard beat their defense.
Again, what you wrote makes a lot of sence, and i don't desegree with you, but would like to know your toughts on that.
I disagree with your belief that taking ML over +1 to 2 is strategically superior. Jets game is an example. Not a great start but I'm sure you'll win it back and more.
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I disagree with your belief that taking ML over +1 to 2 is strategically superior. Jets game is an example. Not a great start but I'm sure you'll win it back and more.
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