Posted:
#1
27-18 ytd
2014: 83-51 (62%)
I am really loving the card this week. Here are some quick thoughts on the games I've already locked in:
Pending: 6-pt-teaser Ravens +15.5 (MNF) & Dolphins +15.5 -110
Miami Dolphins TT Over 20.5 -101
When I cap this game, I can't see how the Dolphins score less than 21 points. That's three (3 TDs) possessions to manage into the end zone against a mediocre defense. When the OL is healthy, this offense is clicking on all cylinders as you have seen since 2014. It's funny how many people still believe Ryan Tannehill is an "idiot QB". Yeah I just read that. Guy goes nuts when having protection, it's the same with Tony Romo or Andy Dalton as you can see. Unless you are not Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, you need a good OL to perform in this league. I don't care whether the Fins cover the +8 spread, but I think they are definitely going to score 21+ points tonight and stay within 15.
New York Jets -2 -108
This game is classic public perception vs. reality. The Raiders blew out a divisional rival as an underdog while the Jets "were lucky to get a backdoor cover" at New England. In fact, the Raiders had the easiest game they will have all season long - the Chargers had no pass rush, weren't able to adjust to formations and couldn't cover any receiver. Jimmy Wilson? Come on. Meanwhile the Jets had a 20-16 lead at New England at the beginning of the fourth. They have been a phenomenal red zone offense but Cumberland and Marshall dropped two TD passes which made an 8-point swing. To be fair, it probably made up for the dropped passes on the NE side.
The Jets are in a massive bounceback situation with no look-ahead game while the Raiders come off a satisfying divisional road win. The Jets will be very focused on this game, this is for sure. Sometimes you may think it is tough to fly across the country to play a westcoast game, but after how the coaching staff handled the London game - I've got no doubt they can handle this vacation to put this team in a comfortable situation. Loss at the right time at NE. I wouldn’t touch them if they had won, but this is a perfect bounceback situation against a team that fits to their strengths.
The Raiders don’t have the kind of experience or system to take away the strengths of opposing defenses. They have to play what the defense gives them, just like against the Chargers when the Raiders were exposing the non-existing pass rush and the poor coverage by Jimmy Wilson. Revis will be on Cooper and I give Revis the edge here. If he shuts down Cooper, Carr will be in an uncomfortable situation, reading the blitzes while looking for holes on just one side of the field. This should lead to three and outs and turnovers because Latavius Murray isn’t going to run on the Jets like he did against the poor Chargers front seven. On offense the Jets will be able to score enough points against a soft defense to make the work of their defense valuable. Rivers had no running game to support and a banged up OL and he still managed to score 29 points on three 80-yd-drives. Chris Ivory is a full participant in practice, he was a big loss last week.
Chicago Bears -1.5 -105
The Vikings haven't been the team we expected them to be and while people will laugh at me, here is a reason: Adrian Peterson. Him being the focus of this offense isn't helping the Vikings. Last season without him, the Vikes had to focus on the passing game and they got a great bonus by McKinnon running for 5.2 YPC and being highly efficient. Running the ball doesn't put you points on the board unless you do it efficiently to support the passing game. Last season they were #5 in DVOA run, this year they are #25. Vikes look very poor on offense (bottom-five) while playing a very soft schedule.
Before the season started, I had the Bears as a 7-9 or 8-8 team but they were banged up all season long. There was a stretch on which they had 11 starting players on the injury report. They are finally healthy, off a bye week with a good coaching staff, playing against a team that struggled mightily on the road in the past - two wins in open stadiums since the start of 2012. This game is set up perfectly for the Bears to finally have their breakout game. Dave Magazu had two weeks to prepare for the Vikes blitzes, Adam Gase had two weeks to prepare his offense for this game in full strength against a defense that played the worst schedule of all teams. The Bears are going to roll here.
Atlanta Falcons -7 -110
A lot of people say the Falcons give up a lot of yards but first looking at total yards is the stupidest thing you could do and second the Falcons play a cover-3 defense to force opposing QBs to beat them deep. In fact they are totally average when it comes to efficiency. The Bucs are pretty thin at WR as VJax and Louis Murphy won't play. Dan Quinn has been a genius against replacement level QBs (around 10 PPG avg) and this time he faces a struggling rookie with only one reliable target. The Bucs get Jenkins back but he isn't going to be successful against the Falcons. The Bucs defense might seem improved but they are still one of the worst teams in defending the pass (#29 pass DVOA) - Matt Ryan is going to have a field day I have no doubt about it. Jameis won't be able to keep the pace and that's why the Falcons are going to win this one by 10+.
Cincinnati Bengals ML +106
This is the best team in the league off a bye week against a mediocre defense with their QB coming back from injury - BULLSEYE. The Bengals are just going to outscore the Steelers here. The Steelers defense is only successful when their front seven can get pressure on a mediocre OL to overshadow their weakness on secondary (just like against ARI). This is not going to happen against the best OL in the NFL. I don't see how they prevent the Bengals from scoring. How many weeks has Big Ben practicing with Bell, Brown AND Bryant this year? 2? Maybe 3 at best? They won't have their greatest rhythm on Sunday. Bengals should win this one and it shouldn't be close.
Carolina Panthers -6.5 -113
The Colts are an overrated team. We all knew that before the season started but who thought the Saints would be able to shut the Colts out in one half in their stadium? In the second half, Luck threw two bombs to TY Hilton when Breaux was slipping away. The score was much closer than it should have been. Andrew Luck can't for his life beat a good coverage defense - I had a big thread about it in week 2 when the Jets played them. The Colts OL is going to get crushed and All-Pro-level playing Josh Norman will shadow TY Hilton. Andrew Luck is going to be limited on offense just like against every good defense and the Panthers should have no problems scoring on this "defense". Big win for the Panthers on MNF at home and another statement of why the Colts don't belong to the playoffs.
BOL everyone
2014: 83-51 (62%)
I am really loving the card this week. Here are some quick thoughts on the games I've already locked in:
Pending: 6-pt-teaser Ravens +15.5 (MNF) & Dolphins +15.5 -110
Miami Dolphins TT Over 20.5 -101
When I cap this game, I can't see how the Dolphins score less than 21 points. That's three (3 TDs) possessions to manage into the end zone against a mediocre defense. When the OL is healthy, this offense is clicking on all cylinders as you have seen since 2014. It's funny how many people still believe Ryan Tannehill is an "idiot QB". Yeah I just read that. Guy goes nuts when having protection, it's the same with Tony Romo or Andy Dalton as you can see. Unless you are not Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, you need a good OL to perform in this league. I don't care whether the Fins cover the +8 spread, but I think they are definitely going to score 21+ points tonight and stay within 15.
New York Jets -2 -108
This game is classic public perception vs. reality. The Raiders blew out a divisional rival as an underdog while the Jets "were lucky to get a backdoor cover" at New England. In fact, the Raiders had the easiest game they will have all season long - the Chargers had no pass rush, weren't able to adjust to formations and couldn't cover any receiver. Jimmy Wilson? Come on. Meanwhile the Jets had a 20-16 lead at New England at the beginning of the fourth. They have been a phenomenal red zone offense but Cumberland and Marshall dropped two TD passes which made an 8-point swing. To be fair, it probably made up for the dropped passes on the NE side.
The Jets are in a massive bounceback situation with no look-ahead game while the Raiders come off a satisfying divisional road win. The Jets will be very focused on this game, this is for sure. Sometimes you may think it is tough to fly across the country to play a westcoast game, but after how the coaching staff handled the London game - I've got no doubt they can handle this vacation to put this team in a comfortable situation. Loss at the right time at NE. I wouldn’t touch them if they had won, but this is a perfect bounceback situation against a team that fits to their strengths.
The Raiders don’t have the kind of experience or system to take away the strengths of opposing defenses. They have to play what the defense gives them, just like against the Chargers when the Raiders were exposing the non-existing pass rush and the poor coverage by Jimmy Wilson. Revis will be on Cooper and I give Revis the edge here. If he shuts down Cooper, Carr will be in an uncomfortable situation, reading the blitzes while looking for holes on just one side of the field. This should lead to three and outs and turnovers because Latavius Murray isn’t going to run on the Jets like he did against the poor Chargers front seven. On offense the Jets will be able to score enough points against a soft defense to make the work of their defense valuable. Rivers had no running game to support and a banged up OL and he still managed to score 29 points on three 80-yd-drives. Chris Ivory is a full participant in practice, he was a big loss last week.
Chicago Bears -1.5 -105
The Vikings haven't been the team we expected them to be and while people will laugh at me, here is a reason: Adrian Peterson. Him being the focus of this offense isn't helping the Vikings. Last season without him, the Vikes had to focus on the passing game and they got a great bonus by McKinnon running for 5.2 YPC and being highly efficient. Running the ball doesn't put you points on the board unless you do it efficiently to support the passing game. Last season they were #5 in DVOA run, this year they are #25. Vikes look very poor on offense (bottom-five) while playing a very soft schedule.
Before the season started, I had the Bears as a 7-9 or 8-8 team but they were banged up all season long. There was a stretch on which they had 11 starting players on the injury report. They are finally healthy, off a bye week with a good coaching staff, playing against a team that struggled mightily on the road in the past - two wins in open stadiums since the start of 2012. This game is set up perfectly for the Bears to finally have their breakout game. Dave Magazu had two weeks to prepare for the Vikes blitzes, Adam Gase had two weeks to prepare his offense for this game in full strength against a defense that played the worst schedule of all teams. The Bears are going to roll here.
Atlanta Falcons -7 -110
A lot of people say the Falcons give up a lot of yards but first looking at total yards is the stupidest thing you could do and second the Falcons play a cover-3 defense to force opposing QBs to beat them deep. In fact they are totally average when it comes to efficiency. The Bucs are pretty thin at WR as VJax and Louis Murphy won't play. Dan Quinn has been a genius against replacement level QBs (around 10 PPG avg) and this time he faces a struggling rookie with only one reliable target. The Bucs get Jenkins back but he isn't going to be successful against the Falcons. The Bucs defense might seem improved but they are still one of the worst teams in defending the pass (#29 pass DVOA) - Matt Ryan is going to have a field day I have no doubt about it. Jameis won't be able to keep the pace and that's why the Falcons are going to win this one by 10+.
Cincinnati Bengals ML +106
This is the best team in the league off a bye week against a mediocre defense with their QB coming back from injury - BULLSEYE. The Bengals are just going to outscore the Steelers here. The Steelers defense is only successful when their front seven can get pressure on a mediocre OL to overshadow their weakness on secondary (just like against ARI). This is not going to happen against the best OL in the NFL. I don't see how they prevent the Bengals from scoring. How many weeks has Big Ben practicing with Bell, Brown AND Bryant this year? 2? Maybe 3 at best? They won't have their greatest rhythm on Sunday. Bengals should win this one and it shouldn't be close.
Carolina Panthers -6.5 -113
The Colts are an overrated team. We all knew that before the season started but who thought the Saints would be able to shut the Colts out in one half in their stadium? In the second half, Luck threw two bombs to TY Hilton when Breaux was slipping away. The score was much closer than it should have been. Andrew Luck can't for his life beat a good coverage defense - I had a big thread about it in week 2 when the Jets played them. The Colts OL is going to get crushed and All-Pro-level playing Josh Norman will shadow TY Hilton. Andrew Luck is going to be limited on offense just like against every good defense and the Panthers should have no problems scoring on this "defense". Big win for the Panthers on MNF at home and another statement of why the Colts don't belong to the playoffs.
BOL everyone
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