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suuma's NFL week eight

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by OneBuck:


Would figure units won is what matters.

Pretty sure you can't spend percentage on person and coke.

person meaning hookers.
 
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Posted: #27
Suuma... waiting for my book to hopefully lower the TT.
would you play a teaser of Miami +14 and the over (45) tonight? might be my play if i cannot get the TT down to 20.5

or do you think 21.5 TT is cleaner than the teaser? 
 
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Posted: #28
Summa 

Great read as always. With you on the NYJ and CAR  I am tempted to take MIA TT over 20.5 but since I already have quite a bit of action on the game I'll let it be. 

I like ATL to win big, but 7 is a lot to a divisional opponent and I could see a late score ruining things. Nonetheless, may place it. 

BOL to you this week! 
 
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Posted: #29
Hey Suuma,

Love your card this weekend mate. GL buddy.

Gotta ask, do you only cap the NFL or are there other sports you love?
 
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Posted: #30
I rarely chime in here, Summa, but felt the need to log in and just say thank you. I have learned a great deal about handicapping the sharpest lines in the world. I have great admiration for anyone that can consistently beat the NFL. I used to be happy breaking even on NFL Sundays and usually ended up a loser each NFL weekend. Now I get to enjoy my favorite days of the year (NFL Sundays) thanks to your great insight. Much appreciated, pal.
 
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Posted: #31
Good stuff. I lean Cincy, Carolina, and NYJ with you. I question the value on ATL -7 and CHI +1.5. 

For TB they have been mostly competitive when not turning the ball over. Winston gets his favorite TE back (Austin Sefarian-Jenkins) and he has Mike Evans looking uncoverable again. Paired with a solid run game they can stay in the game. Really the question for me is Matt Ryan who has shown some serious inconsistency for 3 straight weeks. He played poorly vs WAS, NO, and TEN who are all similar in quality to TB and they covered none of those games. 

CHI is still one of the worst rosters in the league as evidenced by their defensive statistics which are very similar to the Lions. I agree with you completely about Adrian Peterson not being a good fit for the MIN offense. Fortunately for Vikings backers he may not play this week as he hasn't practiced on Wednesday or Thursday with finger, hip, ankle issues. I actually would upgrade the offense if he doesn't play due to the versatility and skill set of Asiata and McKinnon.  

I like NE -8 here. I haven't seen enough from MIA to show me they can cover although I think the TT ov20 is a good play. We'll learn a lot about Dan Campbell from a strategy/ X's and O's perspective tonight. 

GL.
 
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Posted: #32
GL Suuma

Nice card as usual 
Sip on that plus money honey!
 
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Posted: #33
Suuma,

Would you take Miami TT O 21.5?
 
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Posted: #34
I would like 21.5 but you lost decent value. You would generally need an extra possession!

Will respond to the other comments in the morning!!
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by socal_cooler:

Suuma... waiting for my book to hopefully lower the TT.
would you play a teaser of Miami +14 and the over (45) tonight? might be my play if i cannot get the TT down to 20.5

or do you think 21.5 TT is cleaner than the teaser? 

I guess there is no such "cleaner". Both seems to be solid IMO 

Just how I see it though!
 
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Posted: #36
Matching up on a lot of games this week, bookies watch out 
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by OneBuck:


Would figure units won is what matters.

Pretty sure you can't spend percentage on person and coke.

Slowmotion is correct.  In sports like Football and Basketball units won means very little if all bets are consistent.  The juice is basically the same per bet (-110).  Suuma stated all bets r 3% of his bank roll, so he does not bet any different from one game to the next.

If this was baseball or hockey then your statement would mean much more as juice is not consistent from one game to another.

BOL! 
 
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Posted: #38
Good stuff, Suuma. Appreciate your thoughts every week. The NFL forum these days is pretty devoid of that outside of maybe 6-8 guys. 

I disagree with your Panthers play although good grab getting them on the right side of 7. I have a little system I do from weeks 5-9 or so and involves turnovers. It's no super complicated thing or anything, but it has cashed for me at a great clip over the years. Basically that early to mid season part of the year where you see the teams at the bottom in takeaways/giveaways are usually the teams who are 2-5 or 1-6 or 3-4 at this point of the year, and the top teams in that are your 6-0, 5-1, 5-2 teams. 

When they play each other, there's usually insane value as perception of those opposing teams are way off what they usually are. If u go to my Week 6 thread, I broke it down a little more as it gave me NO over Atlanta on that TNF game. Again, this is no complicated math model or algorithm I do, just a fairly simple thing that involves the biggest X-factor in the NFL(turnovers) on weeks where IMO you can get the best value from perception on the lines. Any earlier than week 5 or 6 and ONE game could change the numbers(a team being +5 or -5 in an early season game) and any later than week 10 and that stuff is already being accounted for in the lines you see. 

Anyway, this system or whatever u want to call it gives me Indy this week. I had the line at -8, I think it opened at like -5.5 before quickly rising to -7(-125) where it stands now. 

I lean with you on all your other plays though, and love your insight and writeups. GL this weekend, bro! 


 
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Posted: #39
As far as Raiders game goes, I give the edge to Cooper over Revis he is a man amongst boys, He is like a fine bottle of wine and will only get better with age, but I think the difference maker this weekend will be Crabtree  GL on your plays Im on a few myself 
 
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Posted: #40
dolphins blow, this team is hopeless
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by OneBuck:


Would figure units won is what matters.

Pretty sure you can't spend percentage on person and coke.

So a guy hitting 35% who bets 2 units per game, but then drops 50 units on one game and hits it is the more reliable capper than a guy hitting 58% never betting more than 1 unit per game?

Try again.

suuma has never posted a line higher than -120 and he flat bets every game. Doesn't take a genius to work out he's +EV to follow.
 
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Posted: #42
Looks like a strong card.  GL Summa! 
 
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Posted: #43

Good stuff, Heff. 

BOL this week.. 

 
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Posted: #44
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Good stuff, Suuma. Appreciate your thoughts every week. The NFL forum these days is pretty devoid of that outside of maybe 6-8 guys. 

I disagree with your Panthers play although good grab getting them on the right side of 7. I have a little system I do from weeks 5-9 or so and involves turnovers. It's no super complicated thing or anything, but it has cashed for me at a great clip over the years. Basically that early to mid season part of the year where you see the teams at the bottom in takeaways/giveaways are usually the teams who are 2-5 or 1-6 or 3-4 at this point of the year, and the top teams in that are your 6-0, 5-1, 5-2 teams. 

When they play each other, there's usually insane value as perception of those opposing teams are way off what they usually are. If u go to my Week 6 thread, I broke it down a little more as it gave me NO over Atlanta on that TNF game. Again, this is no complicated math model or algorithm I do, just a fairly simple thing that involves the biggest X-factor in the NFL(turnovers) on weeks where IMO you can get the best value from perception on the lines. Any earlier than week 5 or 6 and ONE game could change the numbers(a team being +5 or -5 in an early season game) and any later than week 10 and that stuff is already being accounted for in the lines you see. 

Anyway, this system or whatever u want to call it gives me Indy this week. I had the line at -8, I think it opened at like -5.5 before quickly rising to -7(-125) where it stands now. 

I lean with you on all your other plays though, and love your insight and writeups. GL this weekend, bro! 


Fantastic post!!!

I employ something similar in my handicapping but with different parameters.  It was also a factor when I took NO vs. ATL, and I lean to DET, CLV and DAL this week for the same reason.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by OneBuck:


Would figure units won is what matters.

Pretty sure you can't spend percentage on person and coke.

Like I said.... up to the individual...... a winning percentage should always = $ unless one is a complete moron. What's more difficult? Picking winners or money management? If you don't know the answer stop gambling. 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by oukurt9409:

I rarely chime in here, Summa, but felt the need to log in and just say thank you. I have learned a great deal about handicapping the sharpest lines in the world. I have great admiration for anyone that can consistently beat the NFL. I used to be happy breaking even on NFL Sundays and usually ended up a loser each NFL weekend. Now I get to enjoy my favorite days of the year (NFL Sundays) thanks to your great insight. Much appreciated, pal.

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by DroopDog:


Slowmotion is correct.  In sports like Football and Basketball units won means very little if all bets are consistent.  The juice is basically the same per bet (-110).  Suuma stated all bets r 3% of his bank roll, so he does not bet any different from one game to the next.

If this was baseball or hockey then your statement would mean much more as juice is not consistent from one game to another.

BOL! 

Thank you 
 
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Posted: #49
Gl suuma
 
 
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GL suuma 
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