All Forums | NFL Betting

suuma's NFL week eight

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 29545
Posts: 184
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #51
There are these days! My respect goes to Tom Brady and his coaching staff - one heck of a performance. Flat out poor performance by the Fins.

0-2 to start the week, but will get it back on Sunday!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 3812
Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Cincinnati Bengals ML +106





1. 80% of public on Bengals spread and moneyline.
2. Bengals 6-0. Steelers 4-3. Screw the home-field advantage and Big Ben being back - Bengals are dogs?????
3. Line moving from -2.0 Bengals to -2.0 Steelers. A 4 point line movement despite public and squares like yourself pounding the Bengals.

This is what I call a Triple Trifecta Unload Your House play on Steelers. No need to watch the game. Just bet your hard earned money on Steelers, go to sleep, wake up and pack up for Hawaii
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2013
Posts: 15769
Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:





1. 80% of public on Bengals spread and moneyline.
2. Bengals 6-0. Steelers 4-3. Screw the home-field advantage and Big Ben being back - Bengals are dogs?????
3. Line moving from -2.0 Bengals to -2.0 Steelers. A 4 point line movement despite public and squares like yourself pounding the Bengals.

This is what I call a Triple Trifecta Unload Your House play on Steelers. No need to watch the game. Just bet your hard earned money on Steelers, go to sleep, wake up and pack up for Hawaii



well,after going about 0-200 in various threads,including suuma's,about the best thing i can say is that you are most definitely due..........altho karma just seems absolutely desperate to make you look like the little bit.ch you are.


so,just to clarify,wat are you throwing down on this play?5 units??..10??..more??..i genuinely do want to see you actually cash in one of your fades so interested to know.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2005
Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:





1. 80% of public on Bengals spread and moneyline.
2. Bengals 6-0. Steelers 4-3. Screw the home-field advantage and Big Ben being back - Bengals are dogs?????
3. Line moving from -2.0 Bengals to -2.0 Steelers. A 4 point line movement despite public and squares like yourself pounding the Bengals.

This is what I call a Triple Trifecta Unload Your House play on Steelers. No need to watch the game. Just bet your hard earned money on Steelers, go to sleep, wake up and pack up for Hawaii

Shaping up to be a standard "fade the consensus" pick.  Arizona is another possible fade. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 1754
Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:





1. 80% of public on Bengals spread and moneyline.
2. Bengals 6-0. Steelers 4-3. Screw the home-field advantage and Big Ben being back - Bengals are dogs?????
3. Line moving from -2.0 Bengals to -2.0 Steelers. A 4 point line movement despite public and squares like yourself pounding the Bengals.

This is what I call a Triple Trifecta Unload Your House play on Steelers. No need to watch the game. Just bet your hard earned money on Steelers, go to sleep, wake up and pack up for Hawaii

I guess you had to unpack after last week when your 'big play' on Detroit went down in flames.
You calling anyone a square is hilarious, when you use phrases like 'Unload Your House'. Will you ever get tired of making a fool of yourself? You're just jelly that Suuma has gotten positive feedback on his write-ups. Why don't you try contributing something a little more worthwhile, it's never too late to stop being a useless troll.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 3812
Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by PhillyBrown:


I guess you had to unpack after last week when your 'big play' on Detroit went down in flames.
You calling anyone a square is hilarious, when you use phrases like 'Unload Your House'. Will you ever get tired of making a fool of yourself? You're just jelly that Suuma has gotten positive feedback on his write-ups. Why don't you try contributing something a little more worthwhile, it's never too late to stop being a useless troll.

Why the hate? I'm only stating my opinion.






 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 5725
Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:


Why the hate? I'm only stating my opinion.






The hatred stems not from the stating of the opinion, but because you are so fxcking obnoxious.

Please start your own topics, and when you post on other people's topics, do so respectfully.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:





1. 80% of public on Bengals spread and moneyline.
2. Bengals 6-0. Steelers 4-3. Screw the home-field advantage and Big Ben being back - Bengals are dogs?????
3. Line moving from -2.0 Bengals to -2.0 Steelers. A 4 point line movement despite public and squares like yourself pounding the Bengals.

This is what I call a Triple Trifecta Unload Your House play on Steelers. No need to watch the game. Just bet your hard earned money on Steelers, go to sleep, wake up and pack up for Hawaii


Do you really want to get exposed again?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 496
Posted: #59

Suuma- I'm really liking Seattle -6 this weekend. Seahawks still have the talent, especially defensively, and i think we see the "real" Seattle for the next 9 weeks.

Also, any team that calls Greg Hardy their "leader" is highly questionable in my book. If not for that ridiculous mistake by Eli in Week 1, Dallas would be all but out of it by now.

My bread and butter is totals, not spreads. You seem to be highly knowledgeable there and i wanted to pick your brain on this game.

Thanks for any insight.

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #60
Summa
Week 8  have a good one.....
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #61
suuma: typo
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2015
Posts: 1375
Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:


Why the hate? I'm only stating my opinion.







Because it's an uneducated opinion based on the 'casual bettor' belief that public consensus graphs are useful.

Probably also because you do is go into the threads of the most popular cappers on here, say something bold, LOSE AGAIN, and return with a convenient case of amnesia next week.

Both of those might be reasons for the 'hate'.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2015
Posts: 1375
Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:



 A 4 point line movement despite public and squares like yourself pounding the Bengals.


Hard to effectively insult the guy when you drop two words that immediately expose you as a Da Vinci Code reverse-line-super-sharp-magic-trap-tea-leaves handicapper.

I wonder how long til you're back in the Penalty Box.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 1744
Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:


Why the hate? I'm only stating my opinion.








Suuma can speak for himself but IMO, he's fine with contradictory opinions.  It's just how you go about it.  If you would have just post points 1, 2, and 3, no one here would say a word.  It's the other comments that draws people ire's.  It's just common courtesy!

Hope this doesn't get into back and forth and side track the thread's topic!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #65
Exactly what gmitran said. I open these threads and give my thoughts to let others participate and have some good discussions because I am addicted to talking about Football. If someone visits my thread and says he is on the opposite of all of my plays, it's fine as long as he provides his thoughts and gets a discussion going, because this is why we are here.

But this fadeORdie guy with his 16-year-old behaviour visits my threads week in week out with his disrespectful comments. He knows nothing about Football but tells people to bet on certain sides because of his hokus pokus angles and "fade-the-public"-theories. He probably doesn't even know who the starting safeties of Cincinnati are, but says people should unload on them because he sees a fictive number on a free website.

In week 5 he told BB and me that our Cardinals at Lions play is wrong because 80% of the public would be on the Cardinals and it's an easy fade - it turned out as the easiest cover on the board. He got exposed.

Last week early Sunday he said about my then-card that it doesn't look good because I am going "with the public" - those plays went 4-1 and he got exposed.

Also last week he told people to unload on the Lions, it would have been his "play of the month" - he got exposed.


 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 17917
Posted: #66
I think it's funny.  And worth a look.

I wish i had someone fsding me.  Doesn't happen.  I get uncomfortable when my play is popular
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 32292
Posted: #67
bol this week suuma
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by TheDrill:

GL Suuma.  I was heavy on the Rams with you last week, that did well for us!  Definitely with ya on the Jets this week...they are gonna eat Carr alive and Oak won't be able to slow their run game.

Strong lean on the Bears for me as well this week, although I need to look at their DL situation some more...they've had a lot of turnover there recently.  Falcons look good as well.

Unfortunately, I think I'll be going against you in the Cincy/Pitts.  I don't think Cincy's defense can stop this Steelers offense, they are so dynamic with Bryant now and Ben back as well.  These guys have mostly been playing together for years, so I don't think the lack of practice together in recent weeks will be a huge deal.  Look at who Cincy has played on the road: Buffalo (w/ EJ), Ravens (no playmakers) and Oak (Carr was knocked out early).  I don't see Cincy's defense being any better this year than last and Pitts hung 42 and 27 on them last year (the 27 was when Bell got injured early too).  Think Bengals get their first loss this week.


Very valid reasoning regarding the CIN/PIT game. I just think we won't get their A-game on Sunday. Ben is off a knee injury so his pocked movement can't be 100% psychologically. The Bengals defense is more than solid and off a bye. Ben and Bell had just a few snaps together this season for example. Last season they needed a few weeks to finally gel.

All in all you reasoning is solid and I appreciate it, but I really like to fade the Steelers in this spot. Good luck to you!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by gmitran:

Agree on Atl.  Weirdest stats on Tampa D, 6th in opponent yards given up but dead last in pts.  Lots of turnovers in own zone?

Would feel more comfortable w/ Jets if Mangold play, they don't think he will as activated C from practice squad.  Back up C is 2nd-yr 6th rd pick LT who started learning C during off season and played handful NFL snaps at C.  Good thing is Oak DL is not that good to take full advantage of that.

Car at home for MNF should hopefully mitigate look ahead to GB.

GL!!!


Golden rule when working with stats: total yards mean nothing. Their NYPPA is 6.5 (#13) which seems to be solid but their DVOA pass (efficiency) is 26.4% which is #29 in the league. They don't give up big plays but they are highly inefficient. They are also #26 in 3rd down DVOA and dead last in red zone efficiency (75%). They don't give up 40 yards on a 1st and 10 but they give up 8 yards on a 3rd and 4!

Nick Mangold is questionable/doubtful but he said that there have to happen major things that he misses a game. Bowles said he will take him out of practice and he will probably play on Sunday
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by AussieDownUnder:

Hey Suuma,

Love your card this weekend mate. GL buddy.

Gotta ask, do you only cap the NFL or are there other sports you love?


Also some College Football and little Soccer/NBA when the NFL season is over

Tailing guys from the NCAAF forums!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by oukurt9409:

I rarely chime in here, Summa, but felt the need to log in and just say thank you. I have learned a great deal about handicapping the sharpest lines in the world. I have great admiration for anyone that can consistently beat the NFL. I used to be happy breaking even on NFL Sundays and usually ended up a loser each NFL weekend. Now I get to enjoy my favorite days of the year (NFL Sundays) thanks to your great insight. Much appreciated, pal.


Thank you very much, I appreciate that. Hope you will have another good Sunday this week!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by BainMasters:

Good stuff. I lean Cincy, Carolina, and NYJ with you. I question the value on ATL -7 and CHI +1.5. 

For TB they have been mostly competitive when not turning the ball over. Winston gets his favorite TE back (Austin Sefarian-Jenkins) and he has Mike Evans looking uncoverable again. Paired with a solid run game they can stay in the game. Really the question for me is Matt Ryan who has shown some serious inconsistency for 3 straight weeks. He played poorly vs WAS, NO, and TEN who are all similar in quality to TB and they covered none of those games. 

CHI is still one of the worst rosters in the league as evidenced by their defensive statistics which are very similar to the Lions. I agree with you completely about Adrian Peterson not being a good fit for the MIN offense. Fortunately for Vikings backers he may not play this week as he hasn't practiced on Wednesday or Thursday with finger, hip, ankle issues. I actually would upgrade the offense if he doesn't play due to the versatility and skill set of Asiata and McKinnon.  

I like NE -8 here. I haven't seen enough from MIA to show me they can cover although I think the TT ov20 is a good play. We'll learn a lot about Dan Campbell from a strategy/ X's and O's perspective tonight. 

GL.


Atlanta: Matt Ryan was without his center and with a obviously banged up Julio Jones against the Redskins and it was a real shame they didn't cover that game. They were totally annihilating the Skins but just failed in the red zone. The Saints game was a very poor spot for them and they should have covered against Titans in an open stadium. That's what I remember of those games! Jenkins will be on a snap count from what I've read on Twitter and Mike Evans will have a tough matchup against Desmond Trufant.

Chicago: You are completely right about their stats. But according to my numbers their defense played the #11 schedule plus those injuries they have been dealing with. This is also the first game their offense is healthy and I expect Jay Cutler and co. to score some points to make the Vikings come from behind. That doesn't bode well with their current efficiency stats.

Hope you took NE -8. Good luck this week and thanks for your comment!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by MRxKrazz:

Matching up on a lot of games this week, bookies watch out 


This has been very profitable in the past. BOL my friend
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by OneBuck:


Would figure units won is what matters.

Pretty sure you can't spend percentage on person and coke.


I am not betting with units. I am betting 3% of my current bankroll on each play. Last season I had a ROI of +124%. This season I am on my way again, don't have the latest number updated but you can make a rough estimate.
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Good stuff, Suuma. Appreciate your thoughts every week. The NFL forum these days is pretty devoid of that outside of maybe 6-8 guys. 

I disagree with your Panthers play although good grab getting them on the right side of 7. I have a little system I do from weeks 5-9 or so and involves turnovers. It's no super complicated thing or anything, but it has cashed for me at a great clip over the years. Basically that early to mid season part of the year where you see the teams at the bottom in takeaways/giveaways are usually the teams who are 2-5 or 1-6 or 3-4 at this point of the year, and the top teams in that are your 6-0, 5-1, 5-2 teams. 

When they play each other, there's usually insane value as perception of those opposing teams are way off what they usually are. If u go to my Week 6 thread, I broke it down a little more as it gave me NO over Atlanta on that TNF game. Again, this is no complicated math model or algorithm I do, just a fairly simple thing that involves the biggest X-factor in the NFL(turnovers) on weeks where IMO you can get the best value from perception on the lines. Any earlier than week 5 or 6 and ONE game could change the numbers(a team being +5 or -5 in an early season game) and any later than week 10 and that stuff is already being accounted for in the lines you see. 

Anyway, this system or whatever u want to call it gives me Indy this week. I had the line at -8, I think it opened at like -5.5 before quickly rising to -7(-125) where it stands now. 

I lean with you on all your other plays though, and love your insight and writeups. GL this weekend, bro! 




I like that we only disagree on one play! I will look forward to your model, no doubt. I just believe the Colts will once again have turnover issues against this defense on the road.

Thanks for your comment buddy, let's get them!
All Forums | NFL Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.