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suuma's NFL week eight

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Posted: #76
GlSumma!

Only pick I'm opposite of you Sunday is Pittsburgh.



I see your located in Germany.  What city if you don't mind me asking? I'm heading to Munich on a family vacation December for two weeks.
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Very valid reasoning regarding the CIN/PIT game. I just think we won't get their A-game on Sunday. Ben is off a knee injury so his pocked movement can't be 100% psychologically. The Bengals defense is more than solid and off a bye. Ben and Bell had just a few snaps together this season for example. Last season they needed a few weeks to finally gel.

All in all you reasoning is solid and I appreciate it, but I really like to fade the Steelers in this spot. Good luck to you!

Thanks for the response bud.  And I hear ya for sure...Ben could barely walk last year towards the end of the season, he holds the ball forever and takes a punishment year in and year out, so you could def be spot on with your expectations of him moving around in the pocket.  I do feel however this year is a little different in that they absolutely stole 2 games (at SD and home KC) with Vick and Vick/Jones, so they were a little more patient with him this year and not forced to bring him back early.  We shall see though.  BOL to you.  

Any other leans this week?  With ya on Bears/Jets...kind of like Saints and Pack but don't love either...any thoughts?
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



I like that we only disagree on one play! I will look forward to your model, no doubt. I just believe the Colts will once again have turnover issues against this defense on the road.

Thanks for your comment buddy, let's get them!

 GL this weekend! Love your style. 
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Atlanta: Matt Ryan was without his center and with a obviously banged up Julio Jones against the Redskins and it was a real shame they didn't cover that game. They were totally annihilating the Skins but just failed in the red zone. The Saints game was a very poor spot for them and they should have covered against Titans in an open stadium. That's what I remember of those games! Jenkins will be on a snap count from what I've read on Twitter and Mike Evans will have a tough matchup against Desmond Trufant.

Chicago: You are completely right about their stats. But according to my numbers their defense played the #11 schedule plus those injuries they have been dealing with. This is also the first game their offense is healthy and I expect Jay Cutler and co. to score some points to make the Vikings come from behind. That doesn't bode well with their current efficiency stats.

Hope you took NE -8. Good luck this week and thanks for your comment!

Good context on the ATL struggles. Ultimately that's a no play for me. TB is a high variance team as is ATL. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins is downgraded to doubtful as well and the WR's outside of Evans are unproven. 

I did take NE -8 which was an easy win for the most part. It was looking like a back door cover in the works after that 3rd Qtr drive but they went back to their coverage schemes and it really frustrated Tannehill. 

They say AP is likely to play after practicing today which I'm kind of ambivalent about. I still don't think he's the best fit for the offense but they're going against a defense that can give up big plays. They are fairly similar teams statistically. The Relativity Index I use off cold hard football facts has MIN ~7pts better than CHI. I can't fault the play either way.

Do you have an opinion on the loss of Jay Ratliff impacting the Bears defense?
 
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Posted: #80
I also fade Cutler in 90% of spots where they have to win to cover ATS. Me and my friend have been saying this about Cutler for years "He's always good for one [INT]." Usually it's in the red zone or at the worst point in the game. 
 
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Posted: #81
Never bet against the Pats
Never bet Cutler except MNF
Just my two cents
GL
that said I also like the Bears this week but lack the balls to pull the trigger, pass for me.
 
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Posted: #82
Short week always favors the Better QB/coach combo. Always. Just look at the history of TNF, it is littered with lesser coaches/QBs losing to better ones. 
 
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Posted: #83
is this your final card for sunday/monday?  
 
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Posted: #84
PFR ratings:  Bridgewater 7,351
                     Cutler           423

That is a MAJOR advantage to CHI unless you take issue with PFR.

I certainly don't.  Go, suuma.
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Exactly what gmitran said. I open these threads and give my thoughts to let others participate and have some good discussions because I am addicted to talking about Football. If someone visits my thread and says he is on the opposite of all of my plays, it's fine as long as he provides his thoughts and gets a discussion going, because this is why we are here.

But this fadeORdie guy with his 16-year-old behaviour visits my threads week in week out with his disrespectful comments. He knows nothing about Football but tells people to bet on certain sides because of his hokus pokus angles and "fade-the-public"-theories. He probably doesn't even know who the starting safeties of Cincinnati are, but says people should unload on them because he sees a fictive number on a free website.

In week 5 he told BB and me that our Cardinals at Lions play is wrong because 80% of the public would be on the Cardinals and it's an easy fade - it turned out as the easiest cover on the board. He got exposed.

Last week early Sunday he said about my then-card that it doesn't look good because I am going "with the public" - those plays went 4-1 and he got exposed.
Also last week he told people to unload on the Lions, it would have been his "play of the month" - he got exposed.


Suuma,
Why do you even bother responding. We know who you are. If you respond they will try to get more attention. That's what kids do,  In my first ever post, I  had asked  you not to let these kids get to you. I think you are very informative and vey knowledgeable as far as this sport is concern. 
GL 
 
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Posted: #86

Dang Heff,  For some reason I thought N.O. -3 would be one of your plays.  I have them large, 

Any thoughts? 

 
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Posted: #87
Summa, for a survivor pool who would you take Atlanta or Carolina. Thanks for all your insight.
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:





1. 80% of public on Bengals spread and moneyline.
2. Bengals 6-0. Steelers 4-3. Screw the home-field advantage and Big Ben being back - Bengals are dogs?????
3. Line moving from -2.0 Bengals to -2.0 Steelers. A 4 point line movement despite public and squares like yourself pounding the Bengals.

This is what I call a Triple Trifecta Unload Your House play on Steelers. No need to watch the game. Just bet your hard earned money on Steelers, go to sleep, wake up and pack up for Hawaii

 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by JDE:

Suuma,
Why do you even bother responding. We know who you are. If you respond they will try to get more attention. That's what kids do,  In my first ever post, I  had asked  you not to let these kids get to you. I think you are very informative and vey knowledgeable as far as this sport is concern. 
GL 


You are right, JDE!
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by tootskie:

GlSumma!

Only pick I'm opposite of you Sunday is Pittsburgh.



I see your located in Germany.  What city if you don't mind me asking? I'm heading to Munich on a family vacation December for two weeks.


South Westphalia, in the near of Dortmund.

When you go to Munich you have to visit the Hofbräuhaus and BMW World!!
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by TheDrill:


Thanks for the response bud.  And I hear ya for sure...Ben could barely walk last year towards the end of the season, he holds the ball forever and takes a punishment year in and year out, so you could def be spot on with your expectations of him moving around in the pocket.  I do feel however this year is a little different in that they absolutely stole 2 games (at SD and home KC) with Vick and Vick/Jones, so they were a little more patient with him this year and not forced to bring him back early.  We shall see though.  BOL to you.  

Any other leans this week?  With ya on Bears/Jets...kind of like Saints and Pack but don't love either...any thoughts?


I like the Broncos and Over on Giants/Saints.

I know GB had two weeks to prepare but so had the Broncos. Their defense will be a very big task for the Packers WRs. Ty Montgomery wasn't practicing and is questionable. The Packers OL has been playing inconsistent and has a tough matchup against this DEN pass rush with DeMarcus Ware back. Aaron Rodgers will need another great performance in the pocket while trying for his receivers to go open against this phenomenal Broncos secondary. Talib and Harris are going to lock them down. I really don't see how the Packers are moving the ball consistently. They needed 4 INTs (1 pick six) and two missed FGs to beat a top-3 defense at home (STL). Now they are at Mile High...

Drew Brees should have no problem moving the ball against this Giants secondary while I also believe Eli is going to have some success through the air. Game looks like a 27-24 either way IMO.


 
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Posted: #92
A personal question if I may, you don't have to answer seeing that you see with loathsome eyes.

Are you German? Do all Germans speak English as good as you do?
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Short week always favors the Better QB/coach combo. Always. Just look at the history of TNF, it is littered with lesser coaches/QBs losing to better ones. 


Couldn't you tell me that on Wednesday?

Just kidding but you might be right. Definitely worth to keep an eye on!
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by iloseagain:

is this your final card for sunday/monday?  


Will probably add one or two over the weekend!
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by Dogjimbo:

Dang Heff,  For some reason I thought N.O. -3 would be one of your plays.  I have them large, 

Any thoughts? 



Dog!! Yesterday I watched the episode in which Doug and Arthur travelled to St. Louis for the Final Four. "I can't hear you, you are too fat"

I like the over even more in this game. Eli is going to have more success through the air than Andrew "Gunslinger" Luck had.
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by Chloeq:

Summa, for a survivor pool who would you take Atlanta or Carolina. Thanks for all your insight.


Flip a coin

I really like both. Can't see Luck beating the Panthers, neither Winston beating the Falcons with only one stud receiver.
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

A personal question if I may, you don't have to answer seeing that you see with loathsome eyes.

Are you German? Do all Germans speak English as good as you do?


Yes I am - thanks. Can't really speak for others. I believe a lot of Germans can speak English very well while there are also people who can't put together one sentence.

I am better in writing and understanding than speaking though. Don't get a lot of opportunities to speak English.


 
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Posted: #98
Suuma,

Best of Luck this weekend. 

Unfortunately I am on the other side with the Raiders, VIkings, and Bucs. Still believe the Vikings are way underrated as continue to cover week after week. I like their balance on offense with A.P. and Bridgewater continues play some good football making critical plays for the team.  Diggs has been an awesome playmaker, and Vikings defense has been stingy with a solid pass rush to give Cutler some problems.

Jets are in a bad spot losing their Super Bowl and travel across the country to play this dangerous Oakland team.  Raiders another underrated team.

The Falcons carelessness with the football combined with a balanced Bucs attack could make for a close game.  This is a must-win game for the Bucs to stay alive this season.  Two strong trends for the Bucs this week. Lovie Smith is 8-1 ATS as a divisional dog of 7 or more, and he is 7-0 ATS as a road dog following a road loss.

I think the Bengals are the better team in the better situation. However, this game is a must-win for the Steelers if they want any shot at the division.  For some reason, the Steelers have their number and Bengals have a Thursday Night game looming ahead. I try to stay clear of teams playing on Thursday the foolowing week.

I like the Panthers, but too many points for my taste. -6.5 is usually my limit, as I see too much backdoor garbage especially in high volume betting games like Monday Night.

Good analysis and BOL 
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Dog!! Yesterday I watched the episode in which Doug and Arthur travelled to St. Louis for the Final Four. "I can't hear you, you are too fat"

I like the over even more in this game. Eli is going to have more success through the air than Andrew "Gunslinger" Luck had.
    Cracked me up....
 
 
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Posted: #100
Appreciate your valuable insight and learn something from your threads with every read. Do my research before reading and agree with almost every pick you made for this week so feel like i'm definitely learning something here. Except see the Colts covering on MNF so might just sit back and enjoy or sprinkle very little on that one b/c i respect your viewpoint. Thanks for the insight and BOL this week. You gave the books a real beating last week. Can tell you love what you do. 
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