Finally on the track. We always have to question/challenge the status quo. I noticed that I am losing my bets by 7.6 PPG. I have lost 7 of the 15 games by six or less points, 3 by one point. So I decided to add 6pt-teasers to my weekly card instead of only straight picks.
Locked in: 6-pt-teaser Seattle Seahawks pk & New York Jets +15.5 -110 St. Louis Rams -4.5 -109
I
like the Seahawks to win and cover but they really shouldn't be -6 or
-7 favorites by now. Monitoring injuries for the rest of the card.
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
24-15 ytd 2014: 83-51 (62%)
Finally on the track. We always have to question/challenge the status quo. I noticed that I am losing my bets by 7.6 PPG. I have lost 7 of the 15 games by six or less points, 3 by one point. So I decided to add 6pt-teasers to my weekly card instead of only straight picks.
Locked in: 6-pt-teaser Seattle Seahawks pk & New York Jets +15.5 -110 St. Louis Rams -4.5 -109
I
like the Seahawks to win and cover but they really shouldn't be -6 or
-7 favorites by now. Monitoring injuries for the rest of the card.
I am 5-0 on
Jets games, so why stopping here? I wrote down this thing throughout the
day by multitasking, so if you find some mistakes, they are yours!
The
Patriots have been looking phenomenal, 5-0 and outscoring their
opponents by a large clip. Let’s take a look at their opponents:
Steelers without Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant and they still missed a
few opportunities in that game, they lost because of their defense. The
Bills without McCoy and Sammy Watkins, Taylor who got sacked 8 times
and still scored 32 points. You have seen that the Bills had pass rush
issues this season, because Rex Ryan has a different opinion of how to
use these players. The Jaguars – nothing to say here. The Cowboys
without Romo, Bryant and Gregory. They still did a great job and Tom
Brady was lying on the ground a lot during the first half. Pats adjusted
very well, tremendous respect for that coaching, and won easily. But
you saw that this OL will get eaten against a quality pass rush. With
Romo and Bryant, that game is completely different. Colts? They are one
of the most overrated teams IMO, I can’t take any win against them
serious. So it’s pretty obvious: the Patriots played a cupcake schedule.
The
Jets had a terrible spot against the Eagles, off that MNF win at Indy,
and were missing Chris Ivory and Eric Decker. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw
three interceptions of which two were tipped and one was incredibly
defended by Eric Rowe against Devin Smith. The Eagles got in front by
short field positions and a punt return TD. The Jets got back into the
game to beat the Eagles 17-0 in the second half but because of the
Fitzpatrick interceptions, there was no chance to seal the comeback win.
Other than that, they are 4-1 and have been manhandling their
opponents. We knew what to expect from their defense which is arguably
in the top-3 this year, but what I am even more excited about is their
offense. If anyone says “hey they create a lot of turnovers, so Ryan
Fitzpatrick has short fields” – he might be right that this is
supporting the offense very well, but the Jets rank very high in every
serious efficiency ranking. They are and already have been capable of
moving the chains throughout a game which their 25.8 offensive PPG show
us. The play-calling and execution by the OL is perfectly set up to not
get defenders to Ryan Fitzpatrick who has the lowest sack rate of all
QBs thus far. Chris Ivory took his beast mode from the training camp
into the season which takes a lot of pressure off Fitzpatrick. The
offense didn’t have a tough schedule, but the Patriots aren’t a good
defense either as you can see above that their numbers are INFLATED due
to the lucky schedule.
Jets offense vs. Patriots defense:
This is the first time the Patriots face an offense that has all three
components: good OL, strong running game and good passing game. If the
stout front sevens from the Eagles or the Redskins couldn’t get the
least pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Patriots won’t get that either.
Fitzpatrick is still making some inaccurate throws and sometimes doesn’t
know how much power he needs for a throw, but he has been successful
because of his OL and the great scheming by Chan Gailey. If you exclude
the three interceptions off tipped ball, he looks even better. He
doesn’t have to throw into tight windows here. The Patriots have been
one of the worst teams against the run and Chris Ivory is going to run
wild on them to keep drives alive or milk the clock at the end. This is
also the first time the Patriots secondary will get really exposed as
they have a terrible matchup problem. Their corners are not only bad in
man-to-man coverage as we have seen against the Steelers, they are also
small. Will Butler cover Marshall? PROBLEM! The Patriots are also not
deep on the secondary and unexperienced with a lot of young players.
Chan Gailey loves to run 3-WR-sets but you also see 4-WR-sets during a
game. Bill Belichick sees this game like me and doesn’t really care
about a running game but even he has to do something against Chris
Ivory. But if he sends an extra safety or LB into the box, his secondary
is wide open. So I believe the Jets are going to be successful on
offense. Jets defense vs. Pats offense: We know what
damage the Pats offense is able to provide, so I want to give some
thoughts on the Jets D and the matchup. The Patriots have been rolling
over poor quality secondaries (Steelers e.g.) or poorly coached defenses
(Bills). I’ve got tremendous respect for Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels
but this is the first real test for them. They haven’t seen a defense
like this in a long time. IMO the Jets are a top-3 defense along with
the Rams and Broncos this year. If you say that’s not true, feel free to
challenge me. In the past we have seen what defenses need to make the
life of Tom Brady unfomfortable: a strong pass rush and good man-to-man
cover corners – Jets have both. I don’t want to dig deep into Todd
Bowles’ scheming and blitzing havoc, you should have seen enough. This
secondary plays phenomenal off the strong pass rush/blitzes which
disturb the passing lanes for the opposing QB’s. They don’t play to
sack, they play to pressure the QB to make him force throws and/or make
bad decisions throwing into a good coverage. When the opposite OL is
capable of picking up blitzes like the Browns did and also the Eagles a
little bit, then the Jets have to rely on their coverage. That’s why
Josh McCown had a great first drive and Johnny Manziel was able to throw
two bombs. This decimated Patriots OL won’t be able to pick up a lot of
those blitzes and we know that Brady can’t throw deep balls anyway.
Julian Edelman is hurt at the hand, he just isn’t 100% at the moment.
Every team struggles to run against the Jets as they have a stout run
defense. So Tom Brady isn’t provided with a lot of short down situations
due to the running game on Sunday. Buster Skrine is a big advantage for
this defense in general and against the Patriots on Sunday. He is one
heck of a slot defender and is used in a lot of blitzing packages. He is
an important factor and I am going to pay attention to his concussion
protocol until the weekend. Rob Gronkowski is almost undefendable, but
please remember that this Jets defense did a great job last season
against the Patriots, coming short of a win in each of two matchups. A
big reason for that was the fact that Tom Brady can’t throw the deep
ball. The Jets had their weakness at secondary but NE wasn’t able to
exploit it. So this time you have an upgraded defense that also
contained the Patriots offense last season with a much better
scheming/play-calling against a very young offensive line. Tom Brady and
Josh McDaniels often find ways to successful drives but based on how I
capped this matchup I just have to give the Jets the edge here.
0
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
I am 5-0 on
Jets games, so why stopping here? I wrote down this thing throughout the
day by multitasking, so if you find some mistakes, they are yours!
The
Patriots have been looking phenomenal, 5-0 and outscoring their
opponents by a large clip. Let’s take a look at their opponents:
Steelers without Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant and they still missed a
few opportunities in that game, they lost because of their defense. The
Bills without McCoy and Sammy Watkins, Taylor who got sacked 8 times
and still scored 32 points. You have seen that the Bills had pass rush
issues this season, because Rex Ryan has a different opinion of how to
use these players. The Jaguars – nothing to say here. The Cowboys
without Romo, Bryant and Gregory. They still did a great job and Tom
Brady was lying on the ground a lot during the first half. Pats adjusted
very well, tremendous respect for that coaching, and won easily. But
you saw that this OL will get eaten against a quality pass rush. With
Romo and Bryant, that game is completely different. Colts? They are one
of the most overrated teams IMO, I can’t take any win against them
serious. So it’s pretty obvious: the Patriots played a cupcake schedule.
The
Jets had a terrible spot against the Eagles, off that MNF win at Indy,
and were missing Chris Ivory and Eric Decker. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw
three interceptions of which two were tipped and one was incredibly
defended by Eric Rowe against Devin Smith. The Eagles got in front by
short field positions and a punt return TD. The Jets got back into the
game to beat the Eagles 17-0 in the second half but because of the
Fitzpatrick interceptions, there was no chance to seal the comeback win.
Other than that, they are 4-1 and have been manhandling their
opponents. We knew what to expect from their defense which is arguably
in the top-3 this year, but what I am even more excited about is their
offense. If anyone says “hey they create a lot of turnovers, so Ryan
Fitzpatrick has short fields” – he might be right that this is
supporting the offense very well, but the Jets rank very high in every
serious efficiency ranking. They are and already have been capable of
moving the chains throughout a game which their 25.8 offensive PPG show
us. The play-calling and execution by the OL is perfectly set up to not
get defenders to Ryan Fitzpatrick who has the lowest sack rate of all
QBs thus far. Chris Ivory took his beast mode from the training camp
into the season which takes a lot of pressure off Fitzpatrick. The
offense didn’t have a tough schedule, but the Patriots aren’t a good
defense either as you can see above that their numbers are INFLATED due
to the lucky schedule.
Jets offense vs. Patriots defense:
This is the first time the Patriots face an offense that has all three
components: good OL, strong running game and good passing game. If the
stout front sevens from the Eagles or the Redskins couldn’t get the
least pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Patriots won’t get that either.
Fitzpatrick is still making some inaccurate throws and sometimes doesn’t
know how much power he needs for a throw, but he has been successful
because of his OL and the great scheming by Chan Gailey. If you exclude
the three interceptions off tipped ball, he looks even better. He
doesn’t have to throw into tight windows here. The Patriots have been
one of the worst teams against the run and Chris Ivory is going to run
wild on them to keep drives alive or milk the clock at the end. This is
also the first time the Patriots secondary will get really exposed as
they have a terrible matchup problem. Their corners are not only bad in
man-to-man coverage as we have seen against the Steelers, they are also
small. Will Butler cover Marshall? PROBLEM! The Patriots are also not
deep on the secondary and unexperienced with a lot of young players.
Chan Gailey loves to run 3-WR-sets but you also see 4-WR-sets during a
game. Bill Belichick sees this game like me and doesn’t really care
about a running game but even he has to do something against Chris
Ivory. But if he sends an extra safety or LB into the box, his secondary
is wide open. So I believe the Jets are going to be successful on
offense. Jets defense vs. Pats offense: We know what
damage the Pats offense is able to provide, so I want to give some
thoughts on the Jets D and the matchup. The Patriots have been rolling
over poor quality secondaries (Steelers e.g.) or poorly coached defenses
(Bills). I’ve got tremendous respect for Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels
but this is the first real test for them. They haven’t seen a defense
like this in a long time. IMO the Jets are a top-3 defense along with
the Rams and Broncos this year. If you say that’s not true, feel free to
challenge me. In the past we have seen what defenses need to make the
life of Tom Brady unfomfortable: a strong pass rush and good man-to-man
cover corners – Jets have both. I don’t want to dig deep into Todd
Bowles’ scheming and blitzing havoc, you should have seen enough. This
secondary plays phenomenal off the strong pass rush/blitzes which
disturb the passing lanes for the opposing QB’s. They don’t play to
sack, they play to pressure the QB to make him force throws and/or make
bad decisions throwing into a good coverage. When the opposite OL is
capable of picking up blitzes like the Browns did and also the Eagles a
little bit, then the Jets have to rely on their coverage. That’s why
Josh McCown had a great first drive and Johnny Manziel was able to throw
two bombs. This decimated Patriots OL won’t be able to pick up a lot of
those blitzes and we know that Brady can’t throw deep balls anyway.
Julian Edelman is hurt at the hand, he just isn’t 100% at the moment.
Every team struggles to run against the Jets as they have a stout run
defense. So Tom Brady isn’t provided with a lot of short down situations
due to the running game on Sunday. Buster Skrine is a big advantage for
this defense in general and against the Patriots on Sunday. He is one
heck of a slot defender and is used in a lot of blitzing packages. He is
an important factor and I am going to pay attention to his concussion
protocol until the weekend. Rob Gronkowski is almost undefendable, but
please remember that this Jets defense did a great job last season
against the Patriots, coming short of a win in each of two matchups. A
big reason for that was the fact that Tom Brady can’t throw the deep
ball. The Jets had their weakness at secondary but NE wasn’t able to
exploit it. So this time you have an upgraded defense that also
contained the Patriots offense last season with a much better
scheming/play-calling against a very young offensive line. Tom Brady and
Josh McDaniels often find ways to successful drives but based on how I
capped this matchup I just have to give the Jets the edge here.
Conclusion:
the Jets offense is definitely going to score here and I can’t see the
Patriots holding them to below 24. So in order to cover a spread of -9,
the Patriots have to drop 34 points on this havoc-style blitzing and
very well covering Jets defense against an OL that can’t pick up
blitzes, a hurt Julian Edelman and a QB who can’t throw the deep ball
and an offense as a whole that struggled against a worse Jets defense in
2014. Can you see that happening? I can’t. If the Jets have a lead at
the end of the third quarter or early in the fourth, they are going to
win this game straight up, because Chris Ivory will milk the clock and
the Patriots can’t do anything against that. The pick:New York Jets +15 in teasers and +9 on the spread if Buster Skrine is ready to go.
0
Conclusion:
the Jets offense is definitely going to score here and I can’t see the
Patriots holding them to below 24. So in order to cover a spread of -9,
the Patriots have to drop 34 points on this havoc-style blitzing and
very well covering Jets defense against an OL that can’t pick up
blitzes, a hurt Julian Edelman and a QB who can’t throw the deep ball
and an offense as a whole that struggled against a worse Jets defense in
2014. Can you see that happening? I can’t. If the Jets have a lead at
the end of the third quarter or early in the fourth, they are going to
win this game straight up, because Chris Ivory will milk the clock and
the Patriots can’t do anything against that. The pick:New York Jets +15 in teasers and +9 on the spread if Buster Skrine is ready to go.
I like Jets to cover 10 pts, Suuma. This Jets team is for real, and they always played the Pats tough. I would rather parlay Seahawks ML tonight with Packers ML on Sunday night at +112. Good luck!
0
I like Jets to cover 10 pts, Suuma. This Jets team is for real, and they always played the Pats tough. I would rather parlay Seahawks ML tonight with Packers ML on Sunday night at +112. Good luck!
I like Jets to cover 10 pts, Suuma. This Jets team is for real, and they always played the Pats tough. I would rather parlay Seahawks ML tonight with Packers ML on Sunday night at +112. Good luck!
0
Aren't the packers on a bye?
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
I like Jets to cover 10 pts, Suuma. This Jets team is for real, and they always played the Pats tough. I would rather parlay Seahawks ML tonight with Packers ML on Sunday night at +112. Good luck!
I agree with your play on the Jets. As a jet fan I just have to disagree on one comment you made.( Jets) "have a good passing game".
They do not have a good passing team relative to the rest of the league Fitz is rated near the bottom in QB Rating. That is the teams weakness and is the only thing at this point holding them back from being a title contender.
In my opinion the jets have a weak passing offense.
Anyway just venting. I enjoy reading your weekly write-ups.
Good Luck
0
I agree with your play on the Jets. As a jet fan I just have to disagree on one comment you made.( Jets) "have a good passing game".
They do not have a good passing team relative to the rest of the league Fitz is rated near the bottom in QB Rating. That is the teams weakness and is the only thing at this point holding them back from being a title contender.
In my opinion the jets have a weak passing offense.
Anyway just venting. I enjoy reading your weekly write-ups.
Finally on the track. We always have to question/challenge the status quo. I noticed that I am losing my bets by 7.6 PPG. I have lost 7 of the 15 games by six or less points, 3 by one point. So I decided to add 6pt-teasers to my weekly card instead of only straight picks.
Locked in: 6-pt-teaser Seattle Seahawks pk & New York Jets +15.5 -110 St. Louis Rams -4.5 -109
I
like the Seahawks to win and cover but they really shouldn't be -6 or
-7 favorites by now. Monitoring injuries for the rest of the card.
you like seahawks to win and cover but you have st louis -4.5 as a pick??????????
0
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
24-15 ytd 2014: 83-51 (62%)
Finally on the track. We always have to question/challenge the status quo. I noticed that I am losing my bets by 7.6 PPG. I have lost 7 of the 15 games by six or less points, 3 by one point. So I decided to add 6pt-teasers to my weekly card instead of only straight picks.
Locked in: 6-pt-teaser Seattle Seahawks pk & New York Jets +15.5 -110 St. Louis Rams -4.5 -109
I
like the Seahawks to win and cover but they really shouldn't be -6 or
-7 favorites by now. Monitoring injuries for the rest of the card.
you like seahawks to win and cover but you have st louis -4.5 as a pick??????????
24-15 ytd2014: 83-51 (62%)Finally on the track. We always have to question/challenge the status quo. I noticed that I am losing my bets by 7.6 PPG. I have lost 7 of the 15 games by six or less points, 3 by one point. So I decided to add 6pt-teasers to my weekly card instead of only straight picks.Locked in: 6-pt-teaser Seattle Seahawks pk & New York Jets +15.5 -110St. Louis Rams -4.5 -109I like the Seahawks to win and cover but they really shouldn't be -6 or -7 favorites by now. Monitoring injuries for the rest of the card.
you like seahawks to win and cover but you have st louis -4.5 as a pick??????????
Stop being an idiot. St Louis is a straight pick. He's taking Seattle to win the game in a teaser bc he doesn't want to lay 7 on the road w/ that Seattle team right now.
0
Quote Originally Posted by billyh:
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
24-15 ytd2014: 83-51 (62%)Finally on the track. We always have to question/challenge the status quo. I noticed that I am losing my bets by 7.6 PPG. I have lost 7 of the 15 games by six or less points, 3 by one point. So I decided to add 6pt-teasers to my weekly card instead of only straight picks.Locked in: 6-pt-teaser Seattle Seahawks pk & New York Jets +15.5 -110St. Louis Rams -4.5 -109I like the Seahawks to win and cover but they really shouldn't be -6 or -7 favorites by now. Monitoring injuries for the rest of the card.
you like seahawks to win and cover but you have st louis -4.5 as a pick??????????
Stop being an idiot. St Louis is a straight pick. He's taking Seattle to win the game in a teaser bc he doesn't want to lay 7 on the road w/ that Seattle team right now.
you like seahawks to win and cover but you have st louis -4.5 as a pick??????????
Stop being an idiot. St Louis is a straight pick. He's taking Seattle to win the game in a teaser bc he doesn't want to lay 7 on the road w/ that Seattle team right now.
you are unable to read what is going on here. he has St. Louis Rams -4.5 -109. MINUS!!!
0
Quote Originally Posted by DegenCurtis21:
you like seahawks to win and cover but you have st louis -4.5 as a pick??????????
Stop being an idiot. St Louis is a straight pick. He's taking Seattle to win the game in a teaser bc he doesn't want to lay 7 on the road w/ that Seattle team right now.
you are unable to read what is going on here. he has St. Louis Rams -4.5 -109. MINUS!!!
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