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suuma's NFL Week Ten

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Posted: #26
*2nd biggest wager of the season on the patriots
 
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Posted: #27
Great stuff as always!
 
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Posted: #28
Really like the Eagles and Pittsburgh....was wondering your read on KC/Carolina??......Keep it going Suuma.....
 
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Posted: #29
Long time reader, new to posting. I really appreciate your insights every week, which have led to a lot of my success this season.

How much weight do you put on the letdown angle with Baltimore and Pittsburgh off the division rivalry game, especially with Baltimore on a short week? The Browns are desperate for a win this week to avoid continuing the winless season, so they will play hard.

Good luck with all your plays! I'll be tailing several.



 
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Posted: #30
Suma

Would love hear your thoughts on 2 games I posted on early in the week

Play on Vikes+3 at Skins

Play on  NYG-2 vs Cinci
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

44-31 (58.6%) +12u

L2 years: 153-109 (58.4%) +37.75u


What's up everybody? Hope you are having a good week. Bitty11, I appreciated your comment, I just didn't want to push the thread again. I ignore every troll. That's actually a great part of Twitter - if someone trolled me, I would just block him. No reason to deal with clowns.


Baltimore Ravens -10 -105

Grabbed the line earlier in the week and one of the rare situations in which I got robbed off a key line move. Early money pushed the line to 10, after that the money shifted towards CLE. Sharps are playing the DD divisional dog vs a team that didn't win by 8+ since 2014 and pushed the line down to +8 at some books overnight. Betting splits show 50/50 but the money split is actually 77/23 in favor of CLE according to sportsinsights.

My preseason line for this game was close to -14. I honestly don't know how the Browns are going to score today. You might say "hey suuma they have scored points in several games this year" - yeah, but not today on the road at Baltimore. Baltimore's D is top-10 material and they are really healthy now except for Dumervil and Correa. Both have played under 10% of the snaps this year and the D was still the premium unit of the team. The first game CLE was up 20-2 quickly off a 85yard run (outlier) and a start deep in BAL territory. After that, the Ravens held them SCORELESS for 49 minutes until the final whistle.

The last four games the Ravens played against rookie QBs, they went 4-0, won by a combined 80-32 and held the rookies to 52% completions, 1TD and 5INT - never allowed a 210+ passing yard game. Do you think Kessler gonna roll over Harbaughs team today? I don't think so. The Browns won't run on the best run D in the league which makes Kessler air it out - I smell a disaster.

The Browns D gives up 29.8 PPG, 7.8 NYPPA and has a total DVOA of 20%. These numbers come VERY close to the Saints defense of 2015. They left Dallas' receivers wide open, it's like taking candy from a baby. Even the Jets offense which is really bad scored 28 points on CLE even though Fitzpatrick started 3/15 because his receivers dropped passes like hot coals.

Fading the sharps on this one, final score prediction: Ravens win 27-6



Balty -7.5 now 
 
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Posted: #32
Good comments, gonna respond to you guys tomorrow!


Took PHI ML +110 for 2u.


Have a good day 
 
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Posted: #33
I enjoyed reading your analysis, even though much of it went over my head as usual.

Thank you for all of your time and effort, suuma.
 
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Posted: #34
Suuma, thanks again for all your great work.

I definitely agree with you that the Ravens' stout defense will shut down the Browns' putrid offense. However, as you possibly know, Football Outsiders DVOA has the Ravens' offensive DVOA at 32nd and the Browns defensive DVOA at 31st.  

Even given the Browns' awful defense, what makes you think that the Ravens will be able to score 27?

---

also, for all wondering, weather is a total non-factor tonight. Will be mid-50s, slightly overcast, very little win, no rain.
 
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Posted: #35
Pittsburgh was the first play I put in this week.. cowboys are a very good team, but feel they haven't faced an offense with the "potential " to light up the score board like PITT.. plus on second half of back-to-back road games.. and Pittsburgh will be playing with a bit of desperation to get back in track.. if and at the cost of under a field goal..
 
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Posted: #36
Suuma - Thanks for the great right up. I have Cleveland +16 in the second leg of a tease where the first game already hit. The line is  now +7.5 so I was thinking of hedging half the bet on Balt with an 8 point window to hit both. Should I consider laying off more than half with the size window?  I'd appreciate your thoughts.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by pennie69:

Suuma - Thanks for the great right up. I have Cleveland +16 in the second leg of a tease where the first game already hit. The line is  now +7.5 so I was thinking of hedging half the bet on Balt with an 8 point window to hit both. Should I consider laying off more than half with the size window?  I'd appreciate your thoughts.

Guaranteed money with the chance for a middle 
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by ChickPea387:

Suuma, thanks again for all your great work.

I definitely agree with you that the Ravens' stout defense will shut down the Browns' putrid offense. However, as you possibly know, Football Outsiders DVOA has the Ravens' offensive DVOA at 32nd and the Browns defensive DVOA at 31st.  

Even given the Browns' awful defense, what makes you think that the Ravens will be able to score 27?

---

also, for all wondering, weather is a total non-factor tonight. Will be mid-50s, slightly overcast, very little win, no rain.

Jets are 29th and scored 31. I am looking for good field position and 2 Kessler picks.

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:


Jets are 29th and scored 31. I am looking for good field position and 2 Kessler picks.


thanks for the reply! Let's get 'em tonight.
 
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Posted: #40
Solid year so far Suuma! You bring insightful info to the forum. Keep it up! 

 
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Posted: #41
A note of caution on the CLV-BAL game - I ran this query:

site = away and po:points > 27 and ppo:points > 27 and pppo:points > 27 and ppppo:points > 27 and pppppo:points > 27 and 7 <= t:line

ATS  7-0 (5.79 100%)

Road dogs of 7+ points that have allowed more than 27 points in 5 consecutive games are 0-7 ATS.

No streak lasts forever and suuma presents a great case for BAL to step up against the hapless Browns.  I just have a $5 bet with a co-worker who is a Ravens fan.

Good luck to suuma and all of the BAL bettors
 
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Posted: #42
bol this week buddy
 
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Posted: #43
ravens have no O can t cover this #!!!
locked it at 10 yesterday!!!!
GO BROWNS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #44
I'm on the Browns +9.5. don't have enough time to expound but I have it as a 23-16 game regardless of victor, though I do give the Ravens the upper hand.

Thanks for your thoughts as always
 
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Posted: #45
Good analysis yet again. I faded you week 9 with TN against SD and paid the price...although you have to admit, TN played quite admirably.

Anyways, CLE v BAL: I have angles for CLE to win ATS. Baltimore hasn't showed me any game this season with a dominating performance. They should have won some close games but they lost because they couldn't put teams away. Their wins were by margins of 6,5,2,and 7. To say they're gonna beat another team by more than what they've ever done this season seems to be a little farfetched. However...

CLE isn't really a reliable team either. You have to imagine that inevitably, this Browns team is gonna let you down, even with 10 points. I agree with your analysis on Baltimore's defense being underrated in this spot with Cleveland's attack being too unreliable.

So, I bought CLE at +10 earlier this week. i checked again earlier to day and its now BAL -7 in my book. I'm middling this one thanks to your write up. I hope the score margin lands somewhere in the middle. 
 
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Posted: #46
I'm amazed how some people think this could possibly be a letdown spot for the Ravens. It's a home division game, they're 4-4. It's not a letdown spot in any way shape or form. I'm not going to lay the points but it a possible let down is not the reason (I just like the college card better tonight)
 
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Posted: #47
 
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Posted: #48
That's a lot of hard work. Hope it pays off for you this week.

GL Suuma
 
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Posted: #49
Awesome call on the Ravens man. 
I was leaning on them, but was hesitant. Nice write up on them. Will tail some of your other plays this weekend. 

 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

 


Fading the sharps on this one, final score prediction: Ravens win 27-6





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