Rodgers vs two rookie CB's for DET. Those rookies will line up on WR2 and in the slot for DET expected to play "expanded roles". Rodgers stating the obvious, but we have seen him kill rookie DB's. MVS down from 46 yds last to 38 this wk.
Carolina Panthers +3.5 (-115)
Injuries piled up in a hurry for the Saints. Panthers get through the week with a clean report. Likely a lower scoring game, but might be too strong an over reaction to week one to lay more than a FG on the road in division.
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling o38.5 rec yds
Rodgers vs two rookie CB's for DET. Those rookies will line up on WR2 and in the slot for DET expected to play "expanded roles". Rodgers stating the obvious, but we have seen him kill rookie DB's. MVS down from 46 yds last to 38 this wk.
Carolina Panthers +3.5 (-115)
Injuries piled up in a hurry for the Saints. Panthers get through the week with a clean report. Likely a lower scoring game, but might be too strong an over reaction to week one to lay more than a FG on the road in division.
NFL Week 3 bets and mini write-ups. Week 2 finished at 6-3.
Thread will be updated throughout the week.
Arizona -7.5 (-105)
The JAX defense has been on the field 78 of the 120 minutes in the first 2 wks (gassed). Now they get to chase Murray and co. around in the heat. Gave up 6.0ypp to DEN & HOU. Big step up vs ARZ OFF. JAX OL vs Jones & rushers is a mess. Coaching mismatch too.
Tampa Bay +1
I think Tampa Bay is the better team through and through. QB, coaches, skill players, defense. I still think the Rams defense is over rated too - and now get their first big test of the season. I don't think I am alone in this sentiment and the line may flip.
Atlanta +3 (-107)
Talked about this on the pod and think this is a case of an 0-2 ATS team getting disregarded and NYG getting bumped up considering the box score on TNF. Reviewed more and see ATL played much better on OFF than I initially thought vs TB.
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NFL Week 3 bets and mini write-ups. Week 2 finished at 6-3.
Thread will be updated throughout the week.
Arizona -7.5 (-105)
The JAX defense has been on the field 78 of the 120 minutes in the first 2 wks (gassed). Now they get to chase Murray and co. around in the heat. Gave up 6.0ypp to DEN & HOU. Big step up vs ARZ OFF. JAX OL vs Jones & rushers is a mess. Coaching mismatch too.
Tampa Bay +1
I think Tampa Bay is the better team through and through. QB, coaches, skill players, defense. I still think the Rams defense is over rated too - and now get their first big test of the season. I don't think I am alone in this sentiment and the line may flip.
Atlanta +3 (-107)
Talked about this on the pod and think this is a case of an 0-2 ATS team getting disregarded and NYG getting bumped up considering the box score on TNF. Reviewed more and see ATL played much better on OFF than I initially thought vs TB.
This number is 1 point higher than the same matchup in 2020 with Mullens at QB? GB DEF worse this year than last, Barry has changed nothing, SF OFF was without Kittle, Samuel, Aiyuk and OL men - now all back. SF DEF banged up. Points.
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San Francisco Green Bay Over 49.5 (-118)
This number is 1 point higher than the same matchup in 2020 with Mullens at QB? GB DEF worse this year than last, Barry has changed nothing, SF OFF was without Kittle, Samuel, Aiyuk and OL men - now all back. SF DEF banged up. Points.
Injuries piling up on both sides for the PIT and despite what the reports say today, key names are not going to be 100% if they do start. PIT still over rated through two games. CIN tends to start well early w Taylor and I think they jump ahead.
Miami +4
As we get closer to kick this number is going to come down and trend towards +3. Raiders injury report has some big question marks but it’s a team and price inflated too far off two wins and MIA dropping to Brissett.
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1H Cincinnati +3 (-124)
Injuries piling up on both sides for the PIT and despite what the reports say today, key names are not going to be 100% if they do start. PIT still over rated through two games. CIN tends to start well early w Taylor and I think they jump ahead.
Miami +4
As we get closer to kick this number is going to come down and trend towards +3. Raiders injury report has some big question marks but it’s a team and price inflated too far off two wins and MIA dropping to Brissett.
Staley has pieces to man Kelce and bracket Hill. Could force a slow KC team to be less explosive. LA OFF avg or worse in YPP, EPA and SUC. KC faced nightmare matchups vs BAL & CLE. MUCH easier matchup vs LA but the total is as high as other two games this year?
I’d love to find any Cam Sims props. Heinicke targeted him 13 times (!) against TB in his first game. BUF has Milano to take away Thomas and White to take away Mclaurin. Big potential for #3/#4 guys this wk on WSH. Their practices this week had a lot of Sims. No lines anywhere…
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LA KC u/54.5
Staley has pieces to man Kelce and bracket Hill. Could force a slow KC team to be less explosive. LA OFF avg or worse in YPP, EPA and SUC. KC faced nightmare matchups vs BAL & CLE. MUCH easier matchup vs LA but the total is as high as other two games this year?
I’d love to find any Cam Sims props. Heinicke targeted him 13 times (!) against TB in his first game. BUF has Milano to take away Thomas and White to take away Mclaurin. Big potential for #3/#4 guys this wk on WSH. Their practices this week had a lot of Sims. No lines anywhere…
NFL Week 4 bets and mini write-ups. Week 3 finished at 6-1.
Record after week 2 and 3 is 12-4.
Thread will be updated throughout the week. Here are some early bets:
Dallas -4.5
CAR DEF has been great, sure, but they have played Wilson and Mills in their first ever start + Jameis. Now they get Dak & Dallas, MUCH different test after losing key DEF players on TNF. I can't trust Darnold to keep up or play from behind on the road.
Baltimore +1.5
DEN 3-0 but plays the easiest schedule of opponents (NYG, JAX, NYJ) to start season. BAL big lead against LV, wins vs KC and despite the final score puts up big numbers on DET. Look ahead to reopen flips, but I just do not agree & think DEN is valued too high.
Kansas City -5.5
KC is two late turnovers & two 4th down conversions away from being 3-0 and beating CLE, BAL and LAC (3 of the best in the AFC). PHI is 1-1 vs ATL/SF with DAL pending on MNF. These KC spreads keep falling & this seems short vs PHI banged up DL.
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NFL Week 4 bets and mini write-ups. Week 3 finished at 6-1.
Record after week 2 and 3 is 12-4.
Thread will be updated throughout the week. Here are some early bets:
Dallas -4.5
CAR DEF has been great, sure, but they have played Wilson and Mills in their first ever start + Jameis. Now they get Dak & Dallas, MUCH different test after losing key DEF players on TNF. I can't trust Darnold to keep up or play from behind on the road.
Baltimore +1.5
DEN 3-0 but plays the easiest schedule of opponents (NYG, JAX, NYJ) to start season. BAL big lead against LV, wins vs KC and despite the final score puts up big numbers on DET. Look ahead to reopen flips, but I just do not agree & think DEN is valued too high.
Kansas City -5.5
KC is two late turnovers & two 4th down conversions away from being 3-0 and beating CLE, BAL and LAC (3 of the best in the AFC). PHI is 1-1 vs ATL/SF with DAL pending on MNF. These KC spreads keep falling & this seems short vs PHI banged up DL.
Kirk Cousins being lauded for his opening three weeks...but if there is anyone that knows how to defend him, it is Kevin Stefanski - and he has a defense to do it. MIN 2-1 but -0.7 NetYPP & -2% net success. CLE 2-1 but league best +1.9 and +11% net success.
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Cleveland -1.5
Kirk Cousins being lauded for his opening three weeks...but if there is anyone that knows how to defend him, it is Kevin Stefanski - and he has a defense to do it. MIN 2-1 but -0.7 NetYPP & -2% net success. CLE 2-1 but league best +1.9 and +11% net success.
JAX is always the side here, I was going to avoid, yet, here we are...This closed -1 last season. CIN obviously better now - but by THIS much? JAX got same price vs a MUCH better ARZ team last week. 0-3 ATS inflating this? CIN 65% rush when up 7+. Ugly TNF.
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Jacksonville +7.5
JAX is always the side here, I was going to avoid, yet, here we are...This closed -1 last season. CIN obviously better now - but by THIS much? JAX got same price vs a MUCH better ARZ team last week. 0-3 ATS inflating this? CIN 65% rush when up 7+. Ugly TNF.
Thread will be updated throughout the week. Week 4 finished at 5-0.
Record after week 2, 3, and 4 is 17-4.
NY Jets Atlanta Over 44.5
Late to the party/piling on. NYJ DEF saw a record 93 plays, 33 Henry runs, & 41 mins Sunday. Loss of Maye never exposed bc TEN had no WR's. NYJ OFF suppressed Wk 1-3 vs CAR, NE, DEN. Good vs TEN (24th DEF EFF) now get easiest DEF in ATL (28th). Over.
1
NFL Week 5 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week. Week 4 finished at 5-0.
Record after week 2, 3, and 4 is 17-4.
NY Jets Atlanta Over 44.5
Late to the party/piling on. NYJ DEF saw a record 93 plays, 33 Henry runs, & 41 mins Sunday. Loss of Maye never exposed bc TEN had no WR's. NYJ OFF suppressed Wk 1-3 vs CAR, NE, DEN. Good vs TEN (24th DEF EFF) now get easiest DEF in ATL (28th). Over.
Thread will be updated throughout the week. Week 5 finished at 1-0. There wasn't a lot I liked going into last week but, this week looks more promising.
Record after week 2, 3, 4, and 5 is 18-4.
Philadelphia +7 (-18)
PHI 3rd in NetYPP, 14th in OFF success & go no huddle at 5th highest rate. I think they can negate some TB pressure & attack an injured secondary which has been cushioned facing NE (23rd) and MIA (30th) in OFF success. PHI getting 7 where NE got 6? No.
0
NFL Week 6 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week. Week 5 finished at 1-0. There wasn't a lot I liked going into last week but, this week looks more promising.
Record after week 2, 3, 4, and 5 is 18-4.
Philadelphia +7 (-18)
PHI 3rd in NetYPP, 14th in OFF success & go no huddle at 5th highest rate. I think they can negate some TB pressure & attack an injured secondary which has been cushioned facing NE (23rd) and MIA (30th) in OFF success. PHI getting 7 where NE got 6? No.
Stepping in front of a runaway train here but -6 seems far too high. Game closed -3 last season and opened -3.5 before the KC win took this up. BUF encourages the run & TEN will take it all day - and do it well. May get Julio back too. Tricky spot for BUF.
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Tennessee +6 (-112)
Stepping in front of a runaway train here but -6 seems far too high. Game closed -3 last season and opened -3.5 before the KC win took this up. BUF encourages the run & TEN will take it all day - and do it well. May get Julio back too. Tricky spot for BUF.
Teams can run all over ARZ which sets up well for CLE and the best rush OFF - especially if the wind is as forecast. ARZ has had plenty of TO luck. Injury report for CLE looks much more promising this afternoon. CLE better in NetYPP and NetSuccess.
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Cleveland -2.5 (-122)
Teams can run all over ARZ which sets up well for CLE and the best rush OFF - especially if the wind is as forecast. ARZ has had plenty of TO luck. Injury report for CLE looks much more promising this afternoon. CLE better in NetYPP and NetSuccess.
At the time of making this bet, there is nothing suggests Jefferson nor Thielen will miss. Bye week ahead, and Cook is likely back. CAR played one decent QB/OFF all season, and were torched, will be tough vs MIN. Darnold vs MIN DEF a tough spot too.
0
Minnesota -1
At the time of making this bet, there is nothing suggests Jefferson nor Thielen will miss. Bye week ahead, and Cook is likely back. CAR played one decent QB/OFF all season, and were torched, will be tough vs MIN. Darnold vs MIN DEF a tough spot too.
It looks like it's an illness is keeping Hopkins out of practice, on top of an injury. Agreed Arizona has some good receivers, but without Maxx Williams and possibly Hopkins, it should make the CLE DEF's day a lot easier.
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@webba
It looks like it's an illness is keeping Hopkins out of practice, on top of an injury. Agreed Arizona has some good receivers, but without Maxx Williams and possibly Hopkins, it should make the CLE DEF's day a lot easier.
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling o38.5 rec yds
Jacksonville +7.5
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