The Covers NFL Forum and The Simple Handicap Podcast community have teamed up for the 2021 NFL season to bring you this mega thread.
Not familiar with Covers newest podcast, The Simple Handicap?
It is a 10-minute daily show published every morning during the regular season. Each episode breaks down all the market movements for each game. Over the past three seasons, the show has been downloaded on Apple and Spotify more than 750,000 times and is trusted by some of the biggest bettors in the industry. The easiest way to stay on top of all the most important NFL betting news is to make The Simple Handicap Podcast part of your daily routine.
What happens inside The Simple Handicap community? It is simple. Think of this thread as an extension of the podcast. Episodes are published each morning, but as everyone knows, the NFL never stops during the day! This thread will be open to anyone in the community who wants to drop in and ask questions about things talked about on the podcast as well as any changes that happen throughout the day.
Adam Chernoff @tshadam, the host of The Simple Handicap, will be posted during the week to any questions you might have about the podcast.
Welcome back to football everybody, enjoy the 2021 NFL Season!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Goooood Morning Everyone!
The Covers NFL Forum and The Simple Handicap Podcast community have teamed up for the 2021 NFL season to bring you this mega thread.
Not familiar with Covers newest podcast, The Simple Handicap?
It is a 10-minute daily show published every morning during the regular season. Each episode breaks down all the market movements for each game. Over the past three seasons, the show has been downloaded on Apple and Spotify more than 750,000 times and is trusted by some of the biggest bettors in the industry. The easiest way to stay on top of all the most important NFL betting news is to make The Simple Handicap Podcast part of your daily routine.
What happens inside The Simple Handicap community? It is simple. Think of this thread as an extension of the podcast. Episodes are published each morning, but as everyone knows, the NFL never stops during the day! This thread will be open to anyone in the community who wants to drop in and ask questions about things talked about on the podcast as well as any changes that happen throughout the day.
Adam Chernoff @tshadam, the host of The Simple Handicap, will be posted during the week to any questions you might have about the podcast.
Welcome back to football everybody, enjoy the 2021 NFL Season!
Glad to be back in the swing of things with practice reports beginning to hit the wire.
Godwin surprisingly missed practice yesterday for TB. Nobody knew of the quad injury prior and it was a surprise. With reports on how fast Antonio Brown looked in camp, it is not a surprise to see his prop prices trending up vs the DAL secondary. o4.5 receptions and 54.5 receiving yards are both numbers that will go higher - especially if today confirms a second DNP for Godwin.
Wentz is in to start for Sunday. Total is now up to 50 o-12 and trending higher at Pinnacle. Peak was 52 at open, with a prior release on this game at 48/49, it should trend back towards 52.
Everything about the Texans camp, preseason and roster construction suggests huge run volume. The Jaguars went from 2.5 through the 3 this morning and are now shading towards 3.5. Rumors have it that Johnson and Burkhead are to take a back seat to Ingram and Lindsey to start the season carry wise. Tough call from props, but not surprised to see the Jags take on money.
Early week news from Monday, but the Bengals best corner - Trae Waynes - is OUT for Sunday. Keep an eye on how props look for either Jefferson or Thielen when they are out tomorrow. The matchup against Apple is a huge advantage for either given his conditioning issues. Would not be surprised to see -3 turn into -3.5 at some point for MIN either.
Engram is a DNP for NYG today. With Golladay already hurt, Barkley limited in production at best and Engram trending towards not playing, pass catching weapons are getting awfully thin for NYG. Not surprisingly the matchup vs DEN sees the shortest total on the board, 42 could soon turn into 41. Kadarious Toney the first round pick could be the man to watch in the prop market when prices are up tomorrow.
Hunter Henry on track to play for NE, but his production is in question after missing preseason.
1
Good morning (from Alberta)
Glad to be back in the swing of things with practice reports beginning to hit the wire.
Godwin surprisingly missed practice yesterday for TB. Nobody knew of the quad injury prior and it was a surprise. With reports on how fast Antonio Brown looked in camp, it is not a surprise to see his prop prices trending up vs the DAL secondary. o4.5 receptions and 54.5 receiving yards are both numbers that will go higher - especially if today confirms a second DNP for Godwin.
Wentz is in to start for Sunday. Total is now up to 50 o-12 and trending higher at Pinnacle. Peak was 52 at open, with a prior release on this game at 48/49, it should trend back towards 52.
Everything about the Texans camp, preseason and roster construction suggests huge run volume. The Jaguars went from 2.5 through the 3 this morning and are now shading towards 3.5. Rumors have it that Johnson and Burkhead are to take a back seat to Ingram and Lindsey to start the season carry wise. Tough call from props, but not surprised to see the Jags take on money.
Early week news from Monday, but the Bengals best corner - Trae Waynes - is OUT for Sunday. Keep an eye on how props look for either Jefferson or Thielen when they are out tomorrow. The matchup against Apple is a huge advantage for either given his conditioning issues. Would not be surprised to see -3 turn into -3.5 at some point for MIN either.
Engram is a DNP for NYG today. With Golladay already hurt, Barkley limited in production at best and Engram trending towards not playing, pass catching weapons are getting awfully thin for NYG. Not surprisingly the matchup vs DEN sees the shortest total on the board, 42 could soon turn into 41. Kadarious Toney the first round pick could be the man to watch in the prop market when prices are up tomorrow.
Hunter Henry on track to play for NE, but his production is in question after missing preseason.
Quote Originally Posted by Holyh3llz: Guy doesn’t even get his dates right. Tuesday September 8th? wednesday September 7th? Hard to keep track of any day but Sunday during football season.
Tuesday September 8th was in 2020
Wednesday September 7th will be 2022
You almost had me all screwed up
Good luck
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Quote Originally Posted by tshadam:
Quote Originally Posted by Holyh3llz: Guy doesn’t even get his dates right. Tuesday September 8th? wednesday September 7th? Hard to keep track of any day but Sunday during football season.
NFL Week 2 bets and mini write-ups. Check in for any updates over the next few days.
Logan Thomas o46.5 rec yards
Heinicke loves throwing at TEs & big targets. Went to Thomas/Sims 5 of 12 non RB targets vs LAC and 22/36 non RB targets vs TB. Total for Thomas same as last week despite the QB change. NYG allowed more targets to TE Fant in Wk1 than any WR. Over.
Green Bay -11 (-110)
DET allowed 8.0 (!) yards per play and 11.5 yards per pass the 49ers. With the Okudah injury, Amani Oruwariye steps in as top corner. DET relying on rookies for depth beyond. Why expect anything different vs GB OFF? Same price as SF with HFA adjusted.
Tennessee +6 (-110)
Sigh. SEA is loaded and the TEN defense is atrocious. However, as bad as TEN looked with Downing, at +6 this is the second biggest number ever laid against TEN w Tannehill and co. I don't believe the SEA DEF (just as bad) warrants a number this big.
Mike Williams o56.5 rec yards
Diggs can't cover both Allen/Williams. Last week Diggs was on the #1 WR (Evans) for 39/47 routes. Betting he takes Allen on Sunday and Williams runs free. Usage for Williams way up in game one under Stale, as was pass rate. Great H2H quote too...
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NFL Week 2 bets and mini write-ups. Check in for any updates over the next few days.
Logan Thomas o46.5 rec yards
Heinicke loves throwing at TEs & big targets. Went to Thomas/Sims 5 of 12 non RB targets vs LAC and 22/36 non RB targets vs TB. Total for Thomas same as last week despite the QB change. NYG allowed more targets to TE Fant in Wk1 than any WR. Over.
Green Bay -11 (-110)
DET allowed 8.0 (!) yards per play and 11.5 yards per pass the 49ers. With the Okudah injury, Amani Oruwariye steps in as top corner. DET relying on rookies for depth beyond. Why expect anything different vs GB OFF? Same price as SF with HFA adjusted.
Tennessee +6 (-110)
Sigh. SEA is loaded and the TEN defense is atrocious. However, as bad as TEN looked with Downing, at +6 this is the second biggest number ever laid against TEN w Tannehill and co. I don't believe the SEA DEF (just as bad) warrants a number this big.
Mike Williams o56.5 rec yards
Diggs can't cover both Allen/Williams. Last week Diggs was on the #1 WR (Evans) for 39/47 routes. Betting he takes Allen on Sunday and Williams runs free. Usage for Williams way up in game one under Stale, as was pass rate. Great H2H quote too...
Just going to keep betting it. We will see if we get a 1.5 at some point. Big underdog, will be playing from behind and throwing lots, GB have great DB’s. Best WR Williams likely out. Struggles vs pressure. Same thing, another week w/o McVay.
Cleveland -13 (-110)
Laying another big number, hurts, but I just have to do it. Ratings make the game north of 14. I think we might get there anyway. HOU got a gift in a unprepared JAX team in Week 1. Couldn't be more different this week at CLE. Two different leagues here.
0
Jared Goff o0.5 INT’s (-140)
Just going to keep betting it. We will see if we get a 1.5 at some point. Big underdog, will be playing from behind and throwing lots, GB have great DB’s. Best WR Williams likely out. Struggles vs pressure. Same thing, another week w/o McVay.
Cleveland -13 (-110)
Laying another big number, hurts, but I just have to do it. Ratings make the game north of 14. I think we might get there anyway. HOU got a gift in a unprepared JAX team in Week 1. Couldn't be more different this week at CLE. Two different leagues here.
BUF lives in 3 WR sets MIA lives in man. Allen success vs MIA not fluke, he kills their coverage. Heck, Mac w nobody killed MIA from 3 WR vs man last wk. With Davis out, MIA will struggle getting pressure rushing 4, tough for Flores to switch out. Over.
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Buffalo o26.5 (-117)
BUF lives in 3 WR sets MIA lives in man. Allen success vs MIA not fluke, he kills their coverage. Heck, Mac w nobody killed MIA from 3 WR vs man last wk. With Davis out, MIA will struggle getting pressure rushing 4, tough for Flores to switch out. Over.
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Logan Thomas o46.5 rec yards
Green Bay -11 (-110)
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