NFL Week 7 bets and mini write-ups.
Some early bets this week. Record after week 6 is 21-5.
New England -6.5
This game was NE -5.5 in Week 2 and the Jets were not even close. Getting basically the same number here in NE but I am not sure we can say both of the teams are in the same position now? NE/Mac much better. Surely this gets to -7? Early bet, why not?
Thread of NFL Week 8 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week. 3-1 in week 7 record now 24-6.
Cleveland -3
IMO, this line can only go one way. CLE is only getting healthier and this looks to be priced assuming the worst. Keenum looked comfortable with Stefanski, and even if it is him, still a good bet, potential to be much higher. PIT being valued like AZ is too much.
Arizona TT o28.5 -113
GB is 25th in defensive success rate. To date they have played:
NO/Jameis (16th)
DET/Goff (20th)
SF/Jimmy (22nd)
PIT/Ben (31st)
CIN/Burrow (12th)
CHI/Fields (30th)
WFT/Heinicke (23rd)
Now step up to AZ/Murray (4th) w some key injuries on DEF. Points.
Eagles -3
This line seems extremely short. No idea why there is excitement to bet DET any week let alone off an all in effort against LAR where everything was thrown at the Rams. DET has not scored 20+ since Week 1, rank 27th on both OFF/DEF. Good price w PHI.
Indianapolis -2.5
Little late to the party but the number is going to move and I think in the same way that I bet the total, IND generally under rated offensively and TEN is in a tough spot off two huge wins. IND best run def in the NFL and can zone out and semi slow down PA.
Washington Denver Over 45
WAS injuries not as bad as weeks past on OFF. DEN still hurt in the middle of the field which will allow WAS to move. WAS secondary still a mess, and both defenses are among the most over rated in the league. Game should be closer to an avg total.
Thread of NFL Week 9 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week. 1-4 in week 8 record is now 25-10.
Carolina New England Under 42
If Darnold is in (seeing doctor today), this is an under with him vs NE DEF. If Walker is in, then this is REALLY an under (likely adj to 40). CAR DEF getting healthier last two weeks. Pass rush will be effective vs non explosive NE OFF.
Cleveland Cincinnati Over 46
CIN has scored 30+ in three straight weeks and their extremely high pass rate is only going to go higher against a beat up CLE secondary this week. RB/TE's struggle v CIN, CLE might be forced into a different (more effective?) OFF style. Points.
Thread of NFL Week 10 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week. 3-0 in week 9 record is now 28-10.
Going to be an awfully light Week 10.
Kansas City -2.5
I do not love it, but I must bet it. I mean, in the span of 8 days, KC closed 10 and LV closed 3 vs NYG. Last year in this matchup we were at KC -11 and -8. To go below a FG here is a different world. I'll take Mahomes v Carr and Reid vs Bisaccia less than 3.
Thread of NFL Week 11 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week.
Houston +10.5
TEN had their big run as dogs. They got no support in a fave role at -3 v NO. Now laying -10.5. Outgained by 111 v NO & 250 the week before v LAR. This is a 1 QB and 1 WR team now with an OL that can't block. This number now is just too big even if it is vs HOU.
Minnesota +2.5
MIN gets key DEF guys back while GB plays wo Jones. This is a matchup where MIN being conservative might not hurt them. GB 30th vs the run & play with two safeties very deep to avoid being burned by PA. If deep, Cook can run. If they play up, MIN PA game works.
Thread of NFL Week 12 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week. 3-0 after week 11 32-10 going into week 12.
NY Jets +3
NYJ has been losing mainly due to their DEF. 551 v NE, 532 v IND, 489 v BUF. These are top five AFC OFF's. Now a step back v HOU OFF/DEF. HOU 29th per play, 26th p/pass. HOU just 3.1 per play (-2.3) in win v TEN. NYJ 6.4 (+0.6) v MIA. HOU shouldn't lay 3 to anyone.
@tshadam
I bow to your abilities. i myself did a two way parlay niners -6.5 and ravens under 44 ( daughter put it in for me in tahoe - but didnt check the ticket and they gave her ravens over so a bad day) should of been a winner.
Have a 3 way parlay going just need ny giants ml to hit and get a nice payoff.
Had a 7 way parlay with some underdogs I was going to bet but didnt want to confuse her to much - $50 would of paid $25k - that is the way my weekend has gone
Cincinnati -3.5
The Steelers are phoney. The faux comeback against LAC in prime time just disguises it even further. The CIN DEF can absolutely contain this PIT OFF and I think it is a bounce back spot for the CIN OFF vs a PIT DEF that gave up 380 to Herbert & 300 to Fields.
Detroit +3.5
Subjective & messy. Report yesterday about Nagy "losing locker room". Pretty damning. If there is ANY truth to him being fired after the game, this CHI team is not showing up Thursday morning. If Hicks is out too, this is a BIG Swift game. DET last chance to win.
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