The Simple Handicap Podcast – NFL 2021 Season Thread

@tshadam

 You still like the over @ 37.5 rushing yards? Thanks

nice job tshadam, 2-0 so far this week.

 you're just on fire

Thread of NFL Week 13 bets and mini write-ups.

Thread will be updated throughout the week. 4-0 after week 12 36-10 going into week 12.

 New England +3

Surprised not more movement off results this wk. BUF is in a terrible spot here against the NE run game. This time last week, it seemed possible that they could erase the pass, but loss of White is massive here. NE has pieces to stop BUF in same way teams have.

@tshadam

awsome tip brutha

@tshadam 

Couldn’t agree more on this New England discussion. Happy to have the +3 in pocket!

PS: Happy to hear you enjoyed some Ralph’s Pizza on your trip to NJ! Definitely the best pizza spot in my area. Have a safe trip home bud! 

 NY Jets +7

Last week PHI laid the biggest price of their season, -4 @ NYG. Didn't cover. Now they step up and lay -7 against NYJ who will be able to survive in trenches. NYJ is 13th in run stop win rate and 14th in pass block win rate. Not sure PHI can cover this price.

 LA Chargers +3

Last two games have been weird for CIN. Wk 11 just 4.1 ypp vs LVR (outgained by 1.8), win by 29. Just 5.7 and 0.5 per play better vs PIT, win by 31. Burrow 140/190 passing. CIN has played soft schedule of opp OFF, now get their top test in LAC. 3 too much.

@Straface23

Great spot couldn't agree more.

Nice work 

yes another great week it looks like. Jets call most likely would of been good if hurts was in. Minshew magic is alive

Thread of NFL Week 14 bets and mini write-ups.

Thread will be updated throughout the week. 1-1 after week 13 with one remaining.

 Pittsburgh +3.5

Honestly, I hate Pittsburgh. But, this number is just a little too long. I doubt that Thielen can turn around on a short week with his injury, and Cook won't get rushed back. DL is not what it used to be, and if the LB's are less than 100%, PIT can score.

 Jacksonville +11

Honestly, I hate the Jaguars too but come on, how can anyone get to 11 here? I get they are out of the bye (great!) but this offense is Foreman, Rodgers, Westbrook, Fitzpatrick and Swaim. The Rams just closed 14 vs JAX, and that group is now 11? Too many.

Thread of NFL Week 15 bets and mini write-ups.

Thread will be updated throughout the week. 0-2 in week 14. 38-13 on the season.

 Indianapolis PK

Toughest matchup for NE in 2+ months. IND DEF can contain/stop the run which will force Mac in 3D’s often. Dome ensures this inflated NE DEF won’t get bailed out by weather like they did vs BUF/TB. DAL/LAC had no issues scoring nor will IND who can throw here.

 Pittsburgh +2.5

Four games in a row now where TEN has done little to move the ball. Benefitted from 4 INTs to win by 20 vs JAX with less than 300 yards. As much as I dislike PIT, this is their season, and their DEF can limit TEN. This game should be PK and not close to 3.

 San Francisco -8

ATL performs well against weak teams, poor against good teams. Wins vs CAR, JAX, NO, MIA, NYJ & NYG. These two teams are in different classes. SF a yard per play better, ATL bottom 7 on both OFF and DEF, SF top 10 OFF. This should be a double digit spread.

 Kansas City -3.5

Completely different set of circumstances from the opening game. The LAC DEF has fallen off a cliff last 8 weeks and get the KC OFF much improved from first meeting. I’ve got this game closer to 5.5 than I do a flat 3. Expect it to come up between now and kick.

 Jacksonville -3.5

No brainer bet here on the Jaguars with Meyer now out of the picture. Toxic coach and a complete sigh of relief within the locker room. Jags better than Houston in all numbers, and now the Texans are the team in this game with the locker room issues.

Idiot for jags got penalized on the punt and the Texans end up scoring a touchdown 

awesome job - 4 and 1 - love the writeups 

I saw your picks on twitter - are you still going to post here?

Adam Chernoff (@adamchernoff) / Twitter