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****The TRAIN69 Super Bowl Extravaganza****

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Posted: #26
Train look for props w Seattle  as a fav 3/4/5/6 nice  3-1 5-1 payoffs!on the same side but I like under 
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by Mangowoman:

train - respect you a lot as a capper, but this analysis reads a lot like a guy trying to convince himself he's on the right side. I noticed you only mentioned manning and none of his receivers. Seattle hasn't faced a team with weapons like Thomas x2, welker, decker and Moreno. they also won't have their home field/12th man + broncos d has been playing extremely well as of late, against more potent offenses than Seattle. no doubt Seahawks have the depth and talent to win, but it's a far cry from a foregone conclusion, despite the claims of a lot of Seattle backers on this forum. the game comes down to Seattle getting pressure on manning and disrupting his rhythm. just not sold on Hawks d line consistently getting to him before he releases the ball. Seattle barely beat SF, whose QB turned the ball over 3 times. will Peyton give them the same luxury?  I doubt it.  



Seriously,TRAIN,  what if Hawks "D" doesn't get to Peyton? 5 Time MVP, 13 Pro Bowls, one of the greatest QB's to ever play the game and you want to blow your wad on a 3rd year quality up and coming QB

Given the time AND.... time to ADJUST (in game)  experience should always win in a contest of this ...magnitude...... Manning is a surgeon and I could easily envision him dissecting the "thugs" eventually Meanwhile, Russell is asking TB for SB advice on podium after game WILSON is gonna win SB's..... just not yet 

Good luck with many of your wagers, but, I have to agree like pointed  out above "your argument is trying to convince yourself" Either Hawks get to Manning or don't A simple question on how this SB goes......

I'll take the team that historically, a 2 time SB winner and 6 time participant, that enters this game CONFIDENT about how they will attack this "vaunted" D that clamped down on the visiting  Saints and 49ers  with an extremely strong HFA........Lastly, you best hope Hawks can slow down BRoncos no huddle, because if,   if it gets cranked up, points will be flying and you just might hit a few of your props.....

Go ORANGE CRUSH

PS I assure you I know BRONCOS like you know your TIGERS 

 
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Posted: #28
Train for pres. And we"ll all make $ 
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:






Given the time AND.... time to ADJUST (in game)  experience should always win in a contest of this ...magnitude......



I'll take the team that historically, a 2 time SB winner and 6 time participant, that enters this game CONFIDENT about how they will attack this "vaunted" D that clamped down on the visiting
Stop with this experience win superbowl s#it.
Have you actually researched that angle?  NO you did not because if you did, you wouldn't be saying that on record.
Doesn't anybody here actually cap/research games?

 
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Posted: #30
Train, with all due respect, I think the game is almost a toss up, but your final score indicates 60 + points will be scored at Metlife in what figures to be windy conditions or worse?  Are you really going over the 47 total?
 
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Posted: #31
hey train who do u like for pro bowl?
 
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Posted: #32
Weather at Gametime...Wintry mix and winds gusting to 25 mph...
 
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Posted: #33
Oddsmakers know the weathet report too. Yet, they still put up 48 right away. As expected, the under is getting pounded. I like to know what most people know, and then do the opposite. They coulda waited a bit to release a total or even made it 42/43....but no, right away its 48.....


Ive been wrong before though.
 
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Posted: #34
Bol buddy. 
 
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Posted: #35
GL TRAIN

Seahawks
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #36
Will respond monday when i get some time.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Also forgot my final score prediction:

 

Seattle 34

Denver 27

 

Y
YOU ALSO FORGOT HAWKS TT OVR THE #
 
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Posted: #38
In a normal year with optimal passing conditions I'd take Denver.
I'm leaning Seattle however saying Wilson and Luke are similar players is insane.
If Seattle wins it will because of D and running game, not Wilson.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Whats up boys & girls. Its been a fun year, as usual. Been reading a lot of posts on this site and watching a little espn. All people are talking about is Manning vs the Seattle defense. I shake my head. That is the obvious matchup that makes better tv.

Record setting HOFer Manning vs Sherman the thug!!! OMG!!!

However, the matchup people should be focusing on is RW vs the Denver defense. Thats where this game will be won.

Denver will most likely play its 4-3 defense and probably have a little safety help to stop Lynch. Now, Denvers 2 safeties and 2 CBs (Cromartie/Bailey) had a combined 4 ints this year. No big deal you say? Well, with as much as teams had to throw this year being down, I'd say it is. They are under sized and neither corner likes to tackle or get physical.

If you dig deeper you will find Denver was dead even in turnover ratio...Seattle was +20. No big deal? Well, kinda. Denver scored a lot this year, in case you didnt know. That means teams got the ball back on offense a lot. Now heres where the issue is....lets look at the AFC this year: Just horrific.

Texans

Jags

Oakland x2

SD x3

KC x2

Titans

Then they got the NFC East this year. Philly/Wash/Dallas/Giants. Brutal doesnt even describe it.

Yuck. 13 of Denvers 18 games this year have been against defenses ranked 20th or worse. Of course games vs the broncos have something to do with that. Yet, they still were dead even in turnovers and ranked 19th in total defense. Part understandable with a lot of bend but dont break, big lead defense. Problem arises when you need to make a play and reach down and find nothing.

Now, Denvers route to the SB. SD, a team they had seen twice already and who was basically playing its 5th playoff game and on b2b roadies, and shouldnt have even been in the playoffs. Then, you get a New England team that has become a "running" squad and the main offensive weapon is Julian Edelman. PUUUHLEEEZE

Manning simply cant move. That will obviously be a problem vs this defense. Of course, manning is the king of the quick release, but the AFC defenses were weak this year. Super freakin weak. Dont be surprised if you see Manning go to his second read and then fall to the ground like a cheap hooker who got punched in the stomach. He wants no part of being hit. This also means he will try to squeeze the ball in some tight windows. Not a good idea. Add to that, Peytons long ball is non existent (maybe worse if the weather is bad). His arm strenght and touch have dropped off considerably, and understandably. With the safeties being able to play a little looser, it will make manning think twice able ever throw over 10 yards.

iI'm not gonna bore you with stats you can google. However, Manning had a qb rating of 115 while Wilsons was 101.....but, Denver allowed a qb rating of 84 while Seattle allowed 63....RW will be playing weaker defense than hes used to.....Manning will be playing the best hes seen all season.

Ok. I'm done for now

 

Seattle +3.5 (-130)

Seattle ML +115

Manning to throw INT before a TD +190

RW O199.5 passing yds -110

RW O1.5 passing tds +130

RW scores a rushing td +300

Lynch O21.5 rushing attempts -105

Lynch O1.5 receptions -125

Golden Tate O45.5 rec yds -110

Doug Baldwin O37.5 rec yds -110

Zach Miller O24.5 rec yds -110

 

More props to follow.

 

Eagerly awaiting the total to keep dropping (at 46.5 right now)as it will surely do as everyone keeps watching espn and thinking its gonna be soooo cold and windy.

 

All thoughts welcome, even from the endless trolls on this site. 



yes train!!! yes!!! we win this one for sure.!
 
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Posted: #40
Hawks
 
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Posted: #41
GL
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Also forgot my final score prediction:

 

Seattle 34

Denver 27

 

i don't thing Seattle can score that high Tran , maybe Sea 19 Den 17
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Oktoberfestlax4:

RW...Most people just started watching em probably, but sure you remember the fact that he had only 1 Int as a frosh @ Carter-Findley. Just incredible what he has accomplished so far in the league and love the people who bash em not even talking about the fact that he is throwing the ball to the likes of Kearse and Baldwin. No disrespect to them either.

 Denver has some beautiful women, namely Anna Sophia Robb, but give me the best D, coupled with a QB who can make plays within the pocket and his legs to buy time. He jsut has to get rid of the ball a little quicker. Oh yeah and having a BEAST workhorse to grind the clock doesn't hurt either. Normal Medium bet 4 me so let's hear what Dribble4Life has to say with the best play Hawks have is to simply "Handoff 2 Lynch." It really is a great play though. BOL Train and enjoyed talking with ya this year!!
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:

I loved your analaysis train and could not agree more. I visualize Wilson having a huge day also. That Denver D is going to make him look so good.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:

Train...Maybe a stupid question I know...How do you get "Lynch 1.5 receptions"

What's a 1/2 reception?  Before you laugh..My mother always said:  "The only dumb question....is the one that isn't asked"
Omg are you a noob troll? Htf dont you know what over 1.5 receptions mean??
 
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Posted: #46
GL Train
 
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Posted: #47
imo train and other seattle bettors are in for one bad sunday as manning shreds that defense.....34-13  is how I see it
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Good stuff, Train. One question, how are you spreading the money out between the ML and the spread (i.e., where are you putting most of your eggs?).

thanks
Twice as much on the spread
 
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Posted: #49

Quote Originally Posted by Mangowoman:

train - respect you a lot as a capper, but this analysis reads a lot like a guy trying to convince himself he's on the right side. I noticed you only mentioned manning and none of his receivers. Seattle hasn't faced a team with weapons like Thomas x2, welker, decker and Moreno. they also won't have their home field/12th man + broncos d has been playing extremely well as of late, against more potent offenses than Seattle. no doubt Seahawks have the depth and talent to win, but it's a far cry from a foregone conclusion, despite the claims of a lot of Seattle backers on this forum. the game comes down to Seattle getting pressure on manning and disrupting his rhythm. just not sold on Hawks d line consistently getting to him before he releases the ball. Seattle barely beat SF, whose QB turned the ball over 3 times. will Peyton give them the same luxury?  I doubt it.  

No worries. I'm not convincing myslef or anyone, its just my opinion. I'm wrong all the time.

 

bol

 
 
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Posted: #50
Train

I disagree with what you said about the chargers! They did deserve to be there and incase you missed it came from a 3&17 on defense from possibly tying the game vs the best team in the conference on the road - it was a great come back that fell short thanks to a great play by manning -
and happened to be the only team to have gone into Denver and won - on a very short week no less -thurs

Closest game Denver had to a loss well since they lost to the chargers

also no credit given for beating a team that hasn't lost a game at home and covered in each of those games including a win and cover vs a colts team who actually defeated the 2 Super Bowl teams head to head!

Not saying they didn't get lucky of course they did (all teams do)

but they won the games they needed to win including a tougher than expected game vs the backups for KC - yes back ups but chase Daniel was dying to get a start and prove himself and if you know anything about the NFL and I know you do - the pressure to win that game was HUGE and was a must win and they won - albeit with a missed FG and a non call but still came back to win

And as far as the patriots well they brady is Brady and Was not an easy game and held Blount to under 10 yards amazing considering the game he had previous week

Denver didn't score in the 2nd H and thanks and that 2 pt miss was aBle to hang on - but all of this stuff who beat who and a where and defensive stats you pulled up means very little when it comes to a game between two teams that don't know each other -

Chargers had mannings old offensive coach who was with him every day

Patriots & ol bill know manning better than any other team - what so the Seahawks have on the best QB ?

Not mucho


Oh and no offense but I hope the " Train "runs off the track on Sunday

Best ,,

GR
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