is on New England -4.
Philly was +3 at home to the Vikes and Falcons. Makes them +6 on a neutral vs those teams. You telling me the Pats would be dogs to the Falcons and Vikes in this game? No chance. This line is simply a product of the Pats playing bad last game and Philly covering by 5 TDs. That's it.
Classic buy low, sell high and how often do you get to do that with the Pats?
Nick Foles has had a career's worth of mediocre play and now he's a great QB after one game? No doubt he played well vs MIN but the guy was 2-15 on deep throws coming into the game and had a 23.3 rating under pressure. Last game he was 4-6 on deep throws (at least a couple when Rhodes went out of the game) and had insane 152 rating when under pressure. With two weeks off, two weeks for Belichick to prepare, I'm betting Foles regresses and regresses hard.
But for Philly he can't afford to regress. We can dissect this game all we want but at the end of the day Foles has to outplay Brady. The Pats are an absurd 29-4 since Brady came back from suspension last year. In the 4 losses the Pats gave up 31,42, 33, and 27 and the opposing QBs had these lines:
68% completions 348 yards 3 TD 0 INT 124.6 RAT
66% completions 263 yards 3 TD 0 INT 112.1 RAT
76% completions 316 yards 3 TD 1 INT 130.8 RAT
80% completions 368 yards 4 TD 0 INT 148.6 RAT
That's the level Foles has to play at to outduel Brady. Mediocre QB off a career game and the greatest coach of all time has two weeks to get him off his spot and make him uncomfortable...the odds Foles plays well again are not good. Sell high.
Pats also off a game where they probably should have lost had Jacksonville not crapped the bed. Down double digits, lost the turnover battle, didn't cover. This current Pats group is 7-1 ATS the last two years off an ATS loss. And how often do the Pats play two bad games? Buy low.
Lots of talk about how NE always play close Super Bowls. I think they are going to win this one by double digits.
GL.
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