gylde...your math is wrong...why are you multiplying 424 x 10 and 500 x 5?? Letting it ride for 10 games the e(x) is 500...which is winning a grand 50% of the time...the 500 already is factoring in the 50% winning percentage..thats where the 500 comes in and not 1000.
Say you hit the first 3 legs of your 4 team parlay 10 times:
1. hedging yields 424 * 10 = 4240 2. Dont hedge and you win 1000 * 5 = 5000 3. Play a 3 team parlay in the first place and you would have won 600 ten times = 6000
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gylde...your math is wrong...why are you multiplying 424 x 10 and 500 x 5?? Letting it ride for 10 games the e(x) is 500...which is winning a grand 50% of the time...the 500 already is factoring in the 50% winning percentage..thats where the 500 comes in and not 1000.
Say you hit the first 3 legs of your 4 team parlay 10 times:
1. hedging yields 424 * 10 = 4240 2. Dont hedge and you win 1000 * 5 = 5000 3. Play a 3 team parlay in the first place and you would have won 600 ten times = 6000
gylde...your math is wrong...why are you multiplying 424 x 10 and 500 x 5?? Letting it ride for 10 games the e(x) is 500...which is winning a grand 50% of the time...the 500 already is factoring in the 50% winning percentage..thats where the 500 comes in and not 1000.
Say you hit the first 3 legs of your 4 team parlay 10 times:
1. hedging yields 424 * 10 = 4240 2. Dont hedge and you win 1000 * 5 = 5000 3. Play a 3 team parlay in the first place and you would have won 600 ten times = 6000
Everbody Read This
Lunchbox brings the food.
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Quote Originally Posted by LUNCHBOX:
gylde...your math is wrong...why are you multiplying 424 x 10 and 500 x 5?? Letting it ride for 10 games the e(x) is 500...which is winning a grand 50% of the time...the 500 already is factoring in the 50% winning percentage..thats where the 500 comes in and not 1000.
Say you hit the first 3 legs of your 4 team parlay 10 times:
1. hedging yields 424 * 10 = 4240 2. Dont hedge and you win 1000 * 5 = 5000 3. Play a 3 team parlay in the first place and you would have won 600 ten times = 6000
And when you continually put yourself in a situation where the payouts are LESS then the risk you assumed, then you're in land. Just because you have already ASSUMED the risk and won doesn't mean you should settle for a less return on your money. There will be plenty of times when you WON'T win the first two games of the parlay. You're basically setting yourself up where you have to win an even HIGHER percentage to make a profit.
KOAJ, what blows my mind is you abhor people who bet -200 favs because the payout is not commensurate with the risk. This parlay issue is NO different. Just because you already assumed the risk and won the first 2 games and are in a position to possibly hedge makes no difference at all in how you evaluate a wager such as this.
Bingo.
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Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:
And when you continually put yourself in a situation where the payouts are LESS then the risk you assumed, then you're in land. Just because you have already ASSUMED the risk and won doesn't mean you should settle for a less return on your money. There will be plenty of times when you WON'T win the first two games of the parlay. You're basically setting yourself up where you have to win an even HIGHER percentage to make a profit.
KOAJ, what blows my mind is you abhor people who bet -200 favs because the payout is not commensurate with the risk. This parlay issue is NO different. Just because you already assumed the risk and won the first 2 games and are in a position to possibly hedge makes no difference at all in how you evaluate a wager such as this.
All the people that take guaranteed money remind me of the "deal or no deal" show. When you have two suitcases left with a million dollar and zero suitcases. They offer $424,000 gauranteed money and people will choose the guaranteed money everytime. This is why no one has ever won the million dollar jackpot. Yes, you will either win 1 mil or nothing but math tell you that you are better off picking the suitcase.
In this example, let's say that if you know before hand that you will get to the last two suitcases. And before you get to that point you guarantee $600,000 ...would you still opt to take the $424,000 gauranteed?
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All the people that take guaranteed money remind me of the "deal or no deal" show. When you have two suitcases left with a million dollar and zero suitcases. They offer $424,000 gauranteed money and people will choose the guaranteed money everytime. This is why no one has ever won the million dollar jackpot. Yes, you will either win 1 mil or nothing but math tell you that you are better off picking the suitcase.
In this example, let's say that if you know before hand that you will get to the last two suitcases. And before you get to that point you guarantee $600,000 ...would you still opt to take the $424,000 gauranteed?
gylde...your math is wrong...why are you multiplying 424 x 10 and 500 x 5?? Letting it ride for 10 games the e(x) is 500...which is winning a grand 50% of the time...the 500 already is factoring in the 50% winning percentage..thats where the 500 comes in and not 1000.
Say you hit the first 3 legs of your 4 team parlay 10 times:
1. hedging yields 424 * 10 = 4240 2. Dont hedge and you win 1000 * 5 = 5000 3. Play a 3 team parlay in the first place and you would have won 600 ten times = 6000
And Bingo #2.
I am honestly amazed at the lack of math and probability understanding. Maybe I shouldnt be, but it is incredible to me that people partake in a hobby or profession based upon math and probability, and dont know the basics.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by LUNCHBOX:
gylde...your math is wrong...why are you multiplying 424 x 10 and 500 x 5?? Letting it ride for 10 games the e(x) is 500...which is winning a grand 50% of the time...the 500 already is factoring in the 50% winning percentage..thats where the 500 comes in and not 1000.
Say you hit the first 3 legs of your 4 team parlay 10 times:
1. hedging yields 424 * 10 = 4240 2. Dont hedge and you win 1000 * 5 = 5000 3. Play a 3 team parlay in the first place and you would have won 600 ten times = 6000
And Bingo #2.
I am honestly amazed at the lack of math and probability understanding. Maybe I shouldnt be, but it is incredible to me that people partake in a hobby or profession based upon math and probability, and dont know the basics.
All the people that take guaranteed money remind me of the "deal or no deal" show. When you have two suitcases left with a million dollar and zero suitcases. They offer $424,000 gauranteed money and people will choose the guaranteed money everytime. This is why no one has ever won the million dollar jackpot. Yes, you will either win 1 mil or nothing but math tell you that you are better off picking the suitcase.
In this example, let's say that if you know before hand that you will get to the last two suitcases. And before you get to that point you guarantee $600,000 ...would you still opt to take the $424,000 gauranteed?
This is actually a good discussion point.
The "deal or no deal" connundrum brings in the concept of utility to most people. If utility is an issue, then that effects your willingness to be paid less for the risk you are assuming. And on deal or no deal, utility will almost certainly enter the picture.
But when you are betting a parlay, you have the ability to calculate the utility ahead of time!! Surely you are not surprised after you hit your first 3 games and realize the value of your parlay going in to the 4th game, it is easily calculated. And if that amount is a high utility to you, then LEAVE THE LAST GAME OFF!!
It all goes back to the same principles.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by THAmanRP:
All the people that take guaranteed money remind me of the "deal or no deal" show. When you have two suitcases left with a million dollar and zero suitcases. They offer $424,000 gauranteed money and people will choose the guaranteed money everytime. This is why no one has ever won the million dollar jackpot. Yes, you will either win 1 mil or nothing but math tell you that you are better off picking the suitcase.
In this example, let's say that if you know before hand that you will get to the last two suitcases. And before you get to that point you guarantee $600,000 ...would you still opt to take the $424,000 gauranteed?
This is actually a good discussion point.
The "deal or no deal" connundrum brings in the concept of utility to most people. If utility is an issue, then that effects your willingness to be paid less for the risk you are assuming. And on deal or no deal, utility will almost certainly enter the picture.
But when you are betting a parlay, you have the ability to calculate the utility ahead of time!! Surely you are not surprised after you hit your first 3 games and realize the value of your parlay going in to the 4th game, it is easily calculated. And if that amount is a high utility to you, then LEAVE THE LAST GAME OFF!!
All the people that take guaranteed money remind me of the "deal or no deal" show. When you have two suitcases left with a million dollar and zero suitcases. They offer $424,000 gauranteed money and people will choose the guaranteed money everytime. This is why no one has ever won the million dollar jackpot. Yes, you will either win 1 mil or nothing but math tell you that you are better off picking the suitcase.
In this example, let's say that if you know before hand that you will get to the last two suitcases. And before you get to that point you guarantee $600,000 ...would you still opt to take the $424,000 gauranteed?
See the thing here with deal or no deal its a 1 time shot.
I would definitely (i almost typed definately...whats the most misspelled word on covers...consistant or definate?...I got to the point where I had to check to make sure I wasnt wrong)....
anyway, I would for certain take 400k guaranteed over a one time 50/50 shot at a million or nothing. Its one time...I might even take less. Now if I knew I could be a contestant over and over again I would strictly go by the math. You wouldnt take 450K? You would risk 450k to make 500k on one coin flip? So youre getting about +110 on the coin flip, I wouldnt put that much on it.
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Quote Originally Posted by THAmanRP:
All the people that take guaranteed money remind me of the "deal or no deal" show. When you have two suitcases left with a million dollar and zero suitcases. They offer $424,000 gauranteed money and people will choose the guaranteed money everytime. This is why no one has ever won the million dollar jackpot. Yes, you will either win 1 mil or nothing but math tell you that you are better off picking the suitcase.
In this example, let's say that if you know before hand that you will get to the last two suitcases. And before you get to that point you guarantee $600,000 ...would you still opt to take the $424,000 gauranteed?
See the thing here with deal or no deal its a 1 time shot.
I would definitely (i almost typed definately...whats the most misspelled word on covers...consistant or definate?...I got to the point where I had to check to make sure I wasnt wrong)....
anyway, I would for certain take 400k guaranteed over a one time 50/50 shot at a million or nothing. Its one time...I might even take less. Now if I knew I could be a contestant over and over again I would strictly go by the math. You wouldnt take 450K? You would risk 450k to make 500k on one coin flip? So youre getting about +110 on the coin flip, I wouldnt put that much on it.
Thank you Lunchbox...Thats all i wanted to hear....Look..It wasn't my parlay and i don't do many 2 teamers and never a 5 teamer.I was just trying to stick up for the guy with a 50 bet..Its not like this guy uses 50 dollar bills to wipe his ass with like lasvegasfool.I agreed with Van that its stupid to hedge.I just thought for this guy already positioned he could get a few beers guaranteed...
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Thank you Lunchbox...Thats all i wanted to hear....Look..It wasn't my parlay and i don't do many 2 teamers and never a 5 teamer.I was just trying to stick up for the guy with a 50 bet..Its not like this guy uses 50 dollar bills to wipe his ass with like lasvegasfool.I agreed with Van that its stupid to hedge.I just thought for this guy already positioned he could get a few beers guaranteed...
See the thing here with deal or no deal its a 1 time shot.
I would definitely (i almost typed definately...whats the most misspelled word on covers...consistant or definate?...I got to the point where I had to check to make sure I wasnt wrong)....
anyway, I would for certain take 400k guaranteed over a one time 50/50 shot at a million or nothing. Its one time...I might even take less. Now if I knew I could be a contestant over and over again I would strictly go by the math. You wouldnt take 450K? You would risk 450k to make 500k on one coin flip? So youre getting about +110 on the coin flip, I wouldnt put that much on it.
This is the concept of utility.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by LUNCHBOX:
See the thing here with deal or no deal its a 1 time shot.
I would definitely (i almost typed definately...whats the most misspelled word on covers...consistant or definate?...I got to the point where I had to check to make sure I wasnt wrong)....
anyway, I would for certain take 400k guaranteed over a one time 50/50 shot at a million or nothing. Its one time...I might even take less. Now if I knew I could be a contestant over and over again I would strictly go by the math. You wouldnt take 450K? You would risk 450k to make 500k on one coin flip? So youre getting about +110 on the coin flip, I wouldnt put that much on it.
sometimes I think the people in this forum set out to lose money or win less money than they could have just so they can bitch & moan about it
Vanzack - thanks for the parlay lesson, it wasn't lost on everyone
I realize that there are a lot who read this, thought about it, and it probably helped them. Thats why I write these things. Because the obvious is not always so obvious, and lots of times is actually counterintuitive.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by revengeissweet1:
sometimes I think the people in this forum set out to lose money or win less money than they could have just so they can bitch & moan about it
Vanzack - thanks for the parlay lesson, it wasn't lost on everyone
I realize that there are a lot who read this, thought about it, and it probably helped them. Thats why I write these things. Because the obvious is not always so obvious, and lots of times is actually counterintuitive.
See the thing here with deal or no deal its a 1 time shot.
I would definitely (i almost typed definately...whats the most misspelled word on covers...consistant or definate?...I got to the point where I had to check to make sure I wasnt wrong)....
anyway, I would for certain take 400k guaranteed over a one time 50/50 shot at a million or nothing. Its one time...I might even take less. Now if I knew I could be a contestant over and over again I would strictly go by the math. You wouldnt take 450K? You would risk 450k to make 500k on one coin flip? So youre getting about +110 on the coin flip, I wouldnt put that much on it.
Being an engineer, math is my 2nd nature. Everytime I see the show I always say to myself that I would never take the 400k since I'm in disadvantage. I'm also a degenerate so I will either make the best decision by winning a million or regret for the rest of my life. But I'm sure if I'm on the show and didn't chose 400k and get $1 my wife will beat the shit out of me.
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Quote Originally Posted by LUNCHBOX:
See the thing here with deal or no deal its a 1 time shot.
I would definitely (i almost typed definately...whats the most misspelled word on covers...consistant or definate?...I got to the point where I had to check to make sure I wasnt wrong)....
anyway, I would for certain take 400k guaranteed over a one time 50/50 shot at a million or nothing. Its one time...I might even take less. Now if I knew I could be a contestant over and over again I would strictly go by the math. You wouldnt take 450K? You would risk 450k to make 500k on one coin flip? So youre getting about +110 on the coin flip, I wouldnt put that much on it.
Being an engineer, math is my 2nd nature. Everytime I see the show I always say to myself that I would never take the 400k since I'm in disadvantage. I'm also a degenerate so I will either make the best decision by winning a million or regret for the rest of my life. But I'm sure if I'm on the show and didn't chose 400k and get $1 my wife will beat the shit out of me.
Thank you Lunchbox...Thats all i wanted to hear....Look..It wasn't my parlay and i don't do many 2 teamers and never a 5 teamer.I was just trying to stick up for the guy with a 50 bet..Its not like this guy uses 50 dollar bills to wipe his ass with like lasvegasfool.I agreed with Van that its stupid to hedge.I just thought for this guy already positioned he could get a few beers guaranteed...
rackjaw
no worries man...Im not criticizing anyone here, I didnt read every post in this thread and I knew it wasnt your parlay...just responding to you specifically asking me my thoughts.
Look, for a casual bettor, I understand that winning 450 say 4 times a year might be worth the juice you give up instead of taking 1k twice. If you are in a better mood all week, are nicer to your family/friends/girl...if its right before xmas and you want to take the loot for gifts etc etc I understand its better to hedge for your mental well being..which might me more valuable than the extra cash. I would tell that guy last night to hedge this parlay bc it seems like he is a small time player, and to say keep his nfl parlays to sunday only...then deal with the mnf game as a separate thing. To me, his scenario could be treated as a one time thing as long as he acknowledges the mistake and wants to get out of it. Hey if you parlay 4 sunday afternoon games, 1 starts at 4pm but you dont think the others will be over in time to hedge, and then the other 3 are all up 30pts and are truly locks late in the 4th, and its 4:10 and the next game is about to start...then I understand a recreational bettor would want to have a profit. If you have a small play and are out with friends watching the games, maybe you want to make sure you enjoy your time out at the bar, and dont want to risk having a down day..and you didnt think you would be in position to hedge at 4pm bc there are always 1pm games that finish past the 4pm starts. But if you are in it to strictly make money, I think the best scenarios have clearly been covered. If you are out in vegas with your friends for a weekend and you do a parlay ticket that accidentally has the sunday night game when you thought it was a day game, and the first legs hit, and your flight back is during the game and you dont want to sweat a G swing taking the redeye back from vegas...especially since you dropped 2k at the table and spent another 2k on food/booze/girls etc...I would understand someone hedging that parlay. What I dont understand is purposely putting that late sunday or monday game in a parlay while saying to yourself 'this is great...if the others hit I can hedge' Maybe if its week 17 and you have a 4 teamer with the monday night game you meant to let ride, but you change your mind and want to end the year with a win I can see that...I still would just leave the late game out but you understand what I mean. If you are doing this mostly for recreation, then the recreation has its cost...and thats up to each person to decide how much that is worth. Sorry for the ramble
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Quote Originally Posted by rackjaw:
Thank you Lunchbox...Thats all i wanted to hear....Look..It wasn't my parlay and i don't do many 2 teamers and never a 5 teamer.I was just trying to stick up for the guy with a 50 bet..Its not like this guy uses 50 dollar bills to wipe his ass with like lasvegasfool.I agreed with Van that its stupid to hedge.I just thought for this guy already positioned he could get a few beers guaranteed...
rackjaw
no worries man...Im not criticizing anyone here, I didnt read every post in this thread and I knew it wasnt your parlay...just responding to you specifically asking me my thoughts.
Look, for a casual bettor, I understand that winning 450 say 4 times a year might be worth the juice you give up instead of taking 1k twice. If you are in a better mood all week, are nicer to your family/friends/girl...if its right before xmas and you want to take the loot for gifts etc etc I understand its better to hedge for your mental well being..which might me more valuable than the extra cash. I would tell that guy last night to hedge this parlay bc it seems like he is a small time player, and to say keep his nfl parlays to sunday only...then deal with the mnf game as a separate thing. To me, his scenario could be treated as a one time thing as long as he acknowledges the mistake and wants to get out of it. Hey if you parlay 4 sunday afternoon games, 1 starts at 4pm but you dont think the others will be over in time to hedge, and then the other 3 are all up 30pts and are truly locks late in the 4th, and its 4:10 and the next game is about to start...then I understand a recreational bettor would want to have a profit. If you have a small play and are out with friends watching the games, maybe you want to make sure you enjoy your time out at the bar, and dont want to risk having a down day..and you didnt think you would be in position to hedge at 4pm bc there are always 1pm games that finish past the 4pm starts. But if you are in it to strictly make money, I think the best scenarios have clearly been covered. If you are out in vegas with your friends for a weekend and you do a parlay ticket that accidentally has the sunday night game when you thought it was a day game, and the first legs hit, and your flight back is during the game and you dont want to sweat a G swing taking the redeye back from vegas...especially since you dropped 2k at the table and spent another 2k on food/booze/girls etc...I would understand someone hedging that parlay. What I dont understand is purposely putting that late sunday or monday game in a parlay while saying to yourself 'this is great...if the others hit I can hedge' Maybe if its week 17 and you have a 4 teamer with the monday night game you meant to let ride, but you change your mind and want to end the year with a win I can see that...I still would just leave the late game out but you understand what I mean. If you are doing this mostly for recreation, then the recreation has its cost...and thats up to each person to decide how much that is worth. Sorry for the ramble
if you buy IBM at 80 and it runs to 85 in a day or so...earnings after the bell. if they are good it could open at 95. if they are bad, it could open at 75
at 3:50 do you sell and take your profits or do you hold through earnings with the hope of hitting a home run...
that is how i look at it. each game is different, each pitcher, quarterback, small forward is different...i cant imagine that the expected value of a play is constant since circumstances change with every game...beyond fundamentals
DevilFan - i was born on LI...maybe its in the water
Koaj
Maybe I wasn't clear in what I was trying to say, my mistake. I'm strictly saying if the fundamentals of each 'position' were to stay constant there would be no difference, whether it was a parlay or a straight bet. Obviously the market has many influences that cause you to constantly readjust the value of a position. Only point I wanted to make was that when you make the bet, you have already included the risk.
I'm in the financial industry as well and it is common practice to hedge so I can understand your tendencies.
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Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
if you buy IBM at 80 and it runs to 85 in a day or so...earnings after the bell. if they are good it could open at 95. if they are bad, it could open at 75
at 3:50 do you sell and take your profits or do you hold through earnings with the hope of hitting a home run...
that is how i look at it. each game is different, each pitcher, quarterback, small forward is different...i cant imagine that the expected value of a play is constant since circumstances change with every game...beyond fundamentals
DevilFan - i was born on LI...maybe its in the water
Koaj
Maybe I wasn't clear in what I was trying to say, my mistake. I'm strictly saying if the fundamentals of each 'position' were to stay constant there would be no difference, whether it was a parlay or a straight bet. Obviously the market has many influences that cause you to constantly readjust the value of a position. Only point I wanted to make was that when you make the bet, you have already included the risk.
I'm in the financial industry as well and it is common practice to hedge so I can understand your tendencies.
This thread is amazing. Van, you make great points, I cannot lie.
It makes the most sense never to parlay anything where the games dont overlap at some point. I totally agree. If for some reason you do, and say you ran out with a 7 or 8 team parlay where the odds are pretty massive, and you won all the beginning games, and somehow a game was delayed and pushed back and you could hedge, I would.
here is why...
yes it is true if you let it ride your parlay $ would be higher in the long run, as you arent paying vig etc, however, how many times will one be in a position to win an 8 team parlay? I can say on 1 FINGER that I almost won an 8 parlay one time. Granted I rarely do parlays, but with that said, if you feel you are in uncharted territory, meaning a parlay where you feel as if you wont ever get to, it makes sense to hedge. Those 3 and 4 teamers everyone will see fairly often.
Lastly, if you do bet non overlapping games in a parlay, hedging guarantees you less $, however, we have all been at the BJ table when you lose 7 or 8 in a row, or have a bad day and lose 60-65% of your hands over the course in an hour or two. That could happen in your parlays.
You could have say 20 parlays where you have the opportunity to hedge in say 5 years (4 teamers), and unluckily only hit 6 or 7. That definitely can happen. In a really large parlay, maybe 6+, hedging seems to make sense for me, as you wont often ever see those chances again.
But in the end, you are right, it makes no sense to parlay anything with non overlapping games.
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This thread is amazing. Van, you make great points, I cannot lie.
It makes the most sense never to parlay anything where the games dont overlap at some point. I totally agree. If for some reason you do, and say you ran out with a 7 or 8 team parlay where the odds are pretty massive, and you won all the beginning games, and somehow a game was delayed and pushed back and you could hedge, I would.
here is why...
yes it is true if you let it ride your parlay $ would be higher in the long run, as you arent paying vig etc, however, how many times will one be in a position to win an 8 team parlay? I can say on 1 FINGER that I almost won an 8 parlay one time. Granted I rarely do parlays, but with that said, if you feel you are in uncharted territory, meaning a parlay where you feel as if you wont ever get to, it makes sense to hedge. Those 3 and 4 teamers everyone will see fairly often.
Lastly, if you do bet non overlapping games in a parlay, hedging guarantees you less $, however, we have all been at the BJ table when you lose 7 or 8 in a row, or have a bad day and lose 60-65% of your hands over the course in an hour or two. That could happen in your parlays.
You could have say 20 parlays where you have the opportunity to hedge in say 5 years (4 teamers), and unluckily only hit 6 or 7. That definitely can happen. In a really large parlay, maybe 6+, hedging seems to make sense for me, as you wont often ever see those chances again.
But in the end, you are right, it makes no sense to parlay anything with non overlapping games.
I totally believe in the math, and over the course of a lifetime you are right. The only problem I have with your logic is that the test sample will be very small. If I were to play 100 4 team parlays in a year, which would be incredibly stupid, I would win the first three 12.5% of the time. If I didn't hedge and lost the first few, I just don't know if I would have the balls to keep riding it out. Yes, the odds say it will even out, but as the test sample gets larger, technically you could very well lose every one for a whole year. I think this is why people hedge, even though statistically it's wrong, it feels better to collect something. I would ask the bigger question, why do people play these 4 teamers that only hit 6.25% of the time. If any of this was already written I apologize, I just can't read this whole thing.
0
Vanzack,
I totally believe in the math, and over the course of a lifetime you are right. The only problem I have with your logic is that the test sample will be very small. If I were to play 100 4 team parlays in a year, which would be incredibly stupid, I would win the first three 12.5% of the time. If I didn't hedge and lost the first few, I just don't know if I would have the balls to keep riding it out. Yes, the odds say it will even out, but as the test sample gets larger, technically you could very well lose every one for a whole year. I think this is why people hedge, even though statistically it's wrong, it feels better to collect something. I would ask the bigger question, why do people play these 4 teamers that only hit 6.25% of the time. If any of this was already written I apologize, I just can't read this whole thing.
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land. Just because you have already ASSUMED the risk and won doesn't mean you should settle for a less return on your money. There will be plenty of times when you WON'T win the first two games of the parlay. You're basically setting yourself up where you have to win an even HIGHER percentage to make a profit.
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