Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL Week 2

buddy u need to relax.... what are u doing a $5 card that needs to be in wednesday am....

ATS Head to Head makes no sense ...

Hello all. I don't post/comment often (simply due to lack of time in front of a computer), but I have been a "covers forum voyeur" over the past couple of years and found the game information/stats/write-ups to be invaluable.

I have massive respect for all the awesome cappers in here, the incredible knowledge flying around and the sharing of fabulous insight and information.

I must admit that some of my favorite reads are the incredibly humorous nut jobs that rear their head on occasion (i.e. "Mr. Bator, please post your picks ASAP. I need you to do all the work for me and give me some free picks since I can't even pick my underwear out of my ass without your help"........."C-mon, RF, it is Wednesday morning already and you have given me nothing to put my lunch money on..", etc.---absolutely hilarious). Some of the funniest shit ever resides in the covers forums.

Okay, enough of that, I popped in here for a reason. While capping some of the games this weekend (I don't like this weekend's card much at all, by the way) I found myself thinking that I cannot remember very many situations with multiple double-digit spreads in the same day/weekend. Many weeks there are none and occasionally a couple.....but double-digit spreads in basically 1/3 of the games (five games) this Sunday just really jumped out at me. So, it prompted me to go a little deeper and I figured RF's AWESOME Trends & Things thread would be the most appropriate place to share my findings.

Over the past 24 games in which the HOME team is favored by 10 or more, ONLY FIVE have covered the spread (with 6 of the huge dogs taking the moneyline). That is an 18-5-1 clip in favor of the road dogs getting double-digits.

In addition, I could only find 1 week (since 2001) in which there were more than 3 games that apply and all home fav's covered. In other words, besides that one week (wk 13 of the 2005 season---3 games applied and all 3 home teams SMASHED their opponent), EVERY TIME that this situation existed in more than 2 games, at least one road dog pulled out the ATS win. That totaled out to 13 weekends of >3 double-digit home fav's. 13 weekends and only 1 time no doggies covered. Basically, that tells me that on any weekend of at least 3 double-digit home fav's, at least one dog will always be barking and very likely win on the moneyline.  

Going back just a bit further........double-digit road dogs have covered 46 of the past 71 such games.........double-digit road dogs have covered 82 of the past 130 such games.

What does all of this mean? Hell, I don't know, I just found it very interesting. Again, I don't like this card very much, but if one was leaning towards one/some/all of these 5 double-digit dogs, this should hopefully make you feel even more comfortable locking it in.

Based on the above stats, I would honestly not be surprised at all to see at least 3 of them cover, with at least 1 winning the game outright. The degenerate in me is almost tempted to make a small (1/2 unit maybe) play on all the dog moneylines.

My leans would be in this order, with most appealing at the top:

BILLS +10 @ Steelers: (since I bleed Black & Gold, I very rarely play any side involving my Steelers but I know them VERY well and would never even consider laying 10 with them against anybody. While it was bizarre to not see the Cowher Scower on the sideline, it is obvious this team already has massive respect for Tomlin and he is a great fit for my team and has a similar defensive mind to tricky Dick and the scheme the Steelers have had effectiveness with in years past. They looked decent against the Browns, but who wouldn't. They typically do not run up the score---especially in games outside of their division----and play a smash mouth game and just want to run it down your throat when they are ahead, which they should be. Add that to the great trends for Buff in week 2's and the horrible trends for Pitt in week 2's and possibly a little extra motivation and "win this one for K.Everett" and I don't see a blowout here......maybe a 24-17 type game. As in any spread over 7, the back door cover is always a fear)

are you forgetting tennessee? 

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I know you've been doing very well, but I think you should re-consider the KC +12 because the only way they cover is if they get +24

Although KC and CHI are both 0-1 and the chart basically says you should take the away team in this case...but you must look at who they played the previous week.  KC got blown out by houston (a potential 8-8 team) and chi barley lost to a potential superbowl team.  Anyway, since this is a trend post, last season CHI always came back after a loss to smash their next opponent.  I really believe if this line stays under 13 CHI is the play for sure.

the chart is going to read 16-35 after this game

anyway goodluck roberto