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Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL Week 2

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Posted: #76
hey Roberto , was wondering who your  5 teams were for the hilton contest for week 2  ? great week last week 4-0-1
 
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Posted: #77
AFC/NFC FROM 2005/2006 AND 2004/2005
 
 05/06          04/05
 
WK 1  1/1      -
WK 2  2/2      1/3
WK 3  5/1      2/1
WK 4  1/2      1/0/1
WK 5  4/2      1/1
WK 6  2/2      3/1
WK 7  2/4      3/3
 
Year 2004-2005 AFC vs NFC weeks 1-7 >>> 11 - 9 ATS
Year 2005-2006 AFC vs NFC weeks 1-7 >>> 17- 14 ATS
two years combined >>> AFC 28-23 ATS weeks 1-7
 
So there is no trend that indicates backing the NFC early in the season .
We can conclude looking back three years that there is a trend backing the AFC vs NFC ...
.Final numbers :
 
AFC is NFC ( 2004 - 2007 )  is 104-73 ATS ( 58.7 % )
 
You also mention a few trends favoring Atlanta ...
The one that be significant is the fact that Jax is 4-22 ATS
( 15 % ) last 26 games  after allowing more than 150 yards rushing previous game .
Though Atlanta only rushed for 96 yards against the Vikings last week the Jaguars did allow 282 yards of rushing from the Titans last week ..
.where the time of possession differential was hugely in favor of the Titans ( 36:55- 23:05 )
Atlanta also had an edge in time of possession in their first game against the Vikings ( 33:01 - 26:59 )
Atlanta does have a good running attack with Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood
 
from covers:   Preview

"The defensive line is somewhat beat up. Stroud had offseason surgery on his ankle, Hayward is coming off a torn Achilles' tendon, Henderson hurt his shoulder before the last preseason game and Spicer missed most of training camp and the preseason with a back injury."

An improved running game would be a big boost for Harrington, who faced constant pressure against the Vikings. Sacks, though, are not a new problem for Atlanta, which yielded 47 in 2006.

"I'm not overly concerned," said Harrington, who has posted a 53.6 quarterback rating while losing both of his career starts against the Jaguars. "I'm not overly worried, and most importantly I'm not overly bruised."

Jacksonville has lost 4 games outright dating back to end of last season
 
I am getting away from the trend side of things here ...but then again the name of this  thread is Trends @ Things !
 
In conclusion ....I do think the play here is Atlanta or no play ...
The spread is high and rising ...presenting line value
The are decent trends backing Atlanta
Jacksonville is riding a losing streak.
 
I like this spot ...for the Falcons actually ...
Good job bringing this up ....
 
 
 
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Posted: #78
Thanks Vincent ...
 
I am still trying to figure out the first team that I like !
I am having to dig deep this week ...
 
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Posted: #79

Great work so far everyone ....

I really appreciate the contributions !

This is brainstorming ...I'll try to condense on key points before the weekend ...

 
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Posted: #80
TRENDS >>>>>
 
UNDER is 9-1  in last 10 games overall
 
OVER is 10-1-1 in Steelers last 12 games after allowing 15 points
or less in their previous game.
 
UNDER is 12-2-1 last 15 games inTexans game as a road underdog of between 3.5-10
 
OVER is 10-2-1 in Titans last 13 games following ATS win
 
Over is 11-2 last 13 games  in 49ers sunday games following a
MNF game.
 
OVER is 27-2-1 last 30 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing !
 
OVER is 11-2-1 last 13 in Lions Games after scoring more than 30 points .
 
OVER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 home games
 
UNDER is 10-1-2 in OAK last 13 road games
 
Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games a a road favorite
Browns are 3-10-1 ATS  last 14 games as a home underdog
 
Jaguars are 4-22 ATS last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing
 
Denver is 1-11 ATS in a home game when the total is between
35.5 - 42
 
San Francisco is 15-3-2 ATS on road games against STLouis
Rams are 3-23 ATS last 26 games when accumulating less than 250 total yards
 
Titans are 10-1 ATS last 11 games as an underdog
 
Cardinals are 13-3-1 ATS last 16 games after allowing less than 250 total yards .
 
Jets are 8-0 ATS last 8 games following an ATS loss
Jets are 10-2 ATS vs a team with a losing record
 
Chargers are 10-1-2 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog
New England is 2-12 ATS in homes where the total is between 45.5-49 since 1992
 
 
*************************************************************
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #81
Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game
 
 
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
 
  • Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
  • Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 2.
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    Posted: #82
    keep u pthe good work
     
    Prospect
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    Posted: #83
    keep u pthe good work
     
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    Posted: #84
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    TRENDS >>>>>
     
    UNDER is 9-1  in Falcons  last 10 games overall
     
    OVER is 10-1-1 in Steelers last 12 games after allowing 15 points or less in their previous game.
     
    UNDER is 12-2-1 last 15 games in Texans game as a road underdog of between 3.5-10
     
    OVER is 10-2-1 in Titans last 13 games following ATS win
     
    Over is 11-2 last 13 games  in 49ers sunday games following a
    MNF game.
     
    OVER is 27-2-1 in Cowboys last 30 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing !
     
    OVER is 11-2-1 last 13 in Lions Games after scoring more than 30 points .
     
    OVER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 home games
     
    UNDER is 10-1-2 in OAK last 13 road games
     
    Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games a a road favorite
    Browns are 3-10-1 ATS  last 14 games as a home underdog
     
    Jaguars are 4-22 ATS last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing
     
    Denver is 1-11 ATS in a home game when the total is between
    35.5 - 42
     
    San Francisco is 15-3-2 ATS on road games against STLouis
    Rams are 3-23 ATS last 26 games when accumulating less than 250 total yards
     
    Titans are 10-1 ATS last 11 games as an underdog
     
    Cardinals are 13-3-1 ATS last 16 games after allowing less than 250 total yards .
     
    Jets are 8-0 ATS last 8 games following an ATS loss
    Jets are 10-2 ATS vs a team with a losing record
     
    Chargers are 10-1-2 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog
    New England is 2-12 ATS in home games where the total is between 45.5-49 since 1992
     
     
    *************************************************************
     
     
     
     
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    Posted: #85
    Houston: 2-11 ATS off a home win

    Over is 14-1 in Steelers games as a Home favorite
     
    NY Giants: 10-2 ATS after scoring 35+ points
     
    Chicago: 13-3 ATS vs. AFC West opponents

     
     
     
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    Posted: #86
    Roberto,
    e-mail me your pix. This is stevo's buddy dan.
    my hook-up is Danmully@aol.com
     
    By the way wildsnake is checkin you out harrrrd dude....whatup?
     
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    Posted: #87
    Quote Originally Posted by dogplaya:

    From RF: I am interested in the 49ers-Cardinals Under look....
     
    Not sure if this helps, but.....
     
    IN ST. LOUIS: When the niners cover the spread, the UNDER is 5-1 (with that one OVER being by just 1.5pts). When the Rams cover the spread, the UNDER is 1-3). The one push was went WAAAY OVER. Again, this is in St. Louis only and stats from '96 to present. Looks like if someone has a strong lean/bet as to the sides, that should answer whether OVER OR UNDER is the play.
     
     

    Why not just parlay STL w/ Over and SF w/ Under?  I mean you could lose both but good chance that you make money if one hits as it is a good bet.

     
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    Posted: #88
    Quote Originally Posted by vegaslover:

    Why not just parlay STL w/ Over and SF w/ Under?  I mean you could lose both but good chance that you make money if one hits as it is a good bet.

    that is about the most ignorant thing ive ever heard

     
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    Posted: #89
    CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS  in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons.
    CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS  in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
     
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    Posted: #90
    Quote Originally Posted by vegaslover:

    Why not just parlay STL w/ Over and SF w/ Under?  I mean you could lose both but good chance that you make money if one hits as it is a good bet.

    Well, the "could lose both" part is why.

    That would also be akin to hedging a bet and if I put my hard earned money on something (not to mention the time, energy, number crunching, mental strain, etc.) then it is only because I have confidence in the bet. If I have confidence and made the bet for good and logical reason, why would I "protect" that bet? If you have enough doubt to look for a way to hedge, don't lay the bet in the first place.

    Lastly, even if I did parlay both and hit one of them, I make half the money as if I just make the right call to begin with.

    What I would do if I had a very strong lean on a side or a total, is place that bet and then likely put 1/2 unit or something on the side or over/under that coincides with the trend above (i.e. if I LOVED the niners then I would also lay a little on the under........if i loved the over, i would lay a little on the Rams, etc.).

    Great thread---nice work once again Roberto

     
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    Posted: #91
    I'm not sure if this help Roberto, but I was looking at the lines for last season and found something interesting about week 2.
     
    2006 Week 2 Lines and Result:
            Clev       @      Cinci   -10        17-34 Cinci covers
            Hou        @      Indi     -11.5     24-43 Indi covers
            Ten        @      SD       -10.5     7-40 Sd covers
            Oak        @      Balt     -12.5     6-28 Balt Covers
             KC         @      Den     -10.5     6-9   dog
            Det         @      Chic     -9         7-34 Chic covers
     
    big home favorites went 5-1 in week 2
     
    2007 week 2 Lines:
              KC           @         CHI  -12
              Oak         @         Den  -10
              ATL         @         JAC  -10.5
              BUF         @         PIT   -10
              NYJ         @        Balt    -10
     
    now there are 6 huge home favorites again, but what will the result be?
     
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    Posted: #92

    San Diego at New England


    The Chargers are 1-0 vs. the spread overall this season and were 4-4 against the number on the road last season. …

    San Diego is 12-1-2 against the spread in its last 15 games as a dog and has covered its last four night contests. …

    The Chargers are 9-0-2 vs. the number in their last 11 games as a road dog and have covered their last seven contests as a road dog of between 3.5 and seven points. …

    San Diego is 32-14-3 vs. the spread in its last 49 regular-season games. …

    The Patriots are 1-0 against the number overall this season and were 3-5-1 against the spread at home last season. …

    New England has covered its last four regular-season games, and six of its last eight regular-season home contests have stayed under the total. …

    he Patriots have covered one of their last five night games, including playoffs, but are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight games following a double-digit victory, including playoffs.

     
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    Posted: #93
     
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    Posted: #94
    Roberto,
    Thanks for digging deeper on the Falcons! Like the Chargers' talent. Love the trends that favor SD. Norv Turner scares the crap out of me, though.
     
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    Posted: #95
    Hey Robert could you please look at the Seattle Arizona game. I am wondering what Seattle's trend is for being road fav's? If I remember back the last few years they have been terrible on the road. I think this could be a nice spot for the home dog this week. I think there are some real nice plays this week just not many.
    Bengals
    SD
    Arizona
    Tenn
    Buff
     
     
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    Posted: #96
    Quote Originally Posted by Rookie_Bookie:

     

    I can make stuff up too if I wanted too, why don't you try putting some proof  of that statement.

    YO r-b. the last game to fit tis trend was in 2005 when GB lost to CLEVE outright. save your money chic fan!!

    Roberto- you're right I misread and thought you already choce KC as one of your pics.. I'll stay  out and just read unless I see something I really think you should consider.. In this case I really think you'd be happy with the result if you took the bears this week.   Last season there was a trend for the bears that went, they go 2-0 AST and then 0-1 AST, and that pattern repeated all season. Anyways Goodluck Roberto

     
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    Posted: #97
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS  in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons.
    CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS  in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

     

    Good to see you added this in your thread.

     
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    Posted: #98
    Quote Originally Posted by Profit01:

    Hey Robert could you please look at the Seattle Arizona game. I am wondering what Seattle's trend is for being road fav's? If I remember back the last few years they have been terrible on the road. I think this could be a nice spot for the home dog this week. I think there are some real nice plays this week just not many.
    Bengals
    SD
    Arizona
    Tenn
    Buff
     

    I would never claim to be anything near Roberto's status, but since I know he is very busy and being asked a lot of specific questions, I figured I would field this one to take some off of RF's shoulders.

    This is what I came up with in Regard to Seattle as road fav's.

    Since 1996 the Hawks are 11-19-1 as a road favorite. Scale that down to times they have been a road fav of 4 or LESS, they are 8-14-1 ATS.

    The last 14 games as a road fav of  3.5 or less, the Hawks are 4-10 ATS

    The last 11 as a road fav of 3 or less, the Hawks are 3-8 ATS.

    The last 3 as RF AT Arizona, the Hawks are 0-2-1 and both ATS losses were also SU losses. Last year the Hawks went to Arizona in week 14 as a 3.5 road fav and the Cards won straight up 27-21.

     
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    Posted: #99
    SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Team Trends
    ATS SU O/U
    Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
    Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
    When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as Favourite- With Total between 41.5 and 44 18-15-2 14-21-0 22-12-1
    When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as Road Favourite- Vs NFC West Division 6-6-0 8-4-0 7-5-0
    When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as Home or Away Team- On Grass Surface 14-20-1 18-17-0 27-8-0
    When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as Home or Away Team- With a Spread between 0 and 3.5 9-15-1 13-12-0 16-9-0
    When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as Favourite- With a Spread between 0 and 3.5 13-14-3 13-17-0 18-12-0
    When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 41.5 and 44 17-12-1 22-8-0 21-9-0
    When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as Road Favourite- Vs ARIZONA CARDINALS 2-3-0 2-3-0 4-1-0
    When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as Road Team- Vs ARIZONA CARDINALS 3-4-0 3-4-0 4-3-0
    When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as Road Team- in the month of September 28-16-2 23-23-0 12-32-2
    When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as Home or Away Team- in the month of September 22-16-2 24-16-0 14-26-0


     
     
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    Posted: #100
    dogplaya ...
    thanks for your contributions ...
     
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