I know you've been doing very well, but I think you should re-consider the KC +12 because the only way they cover is if they get +24
Although KC and CHI are both 0-1 and the chart basically says you should take the away team in this case...but you must look at who they played the previous week. KC got blown out by houston (a potential 8-8 team) and chi barley lost to a potential superbowl team. Anyway, since this is a trend post, last season CHI always came back after a loss to smash their next opponent. I really believe if this line stays under 13 CHI is the play for sure.
the chart is going to read 16-35 after this game
anyway goodluck roberto
I don't need to reconsider anything ...
I simply put up a freebie trend pick by two minute warning site ...with the corresponding percentages.....
???
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Quote Originally Posted by Rookie_Bookie:
I know you've been doing very well, but I think you should re-consider the KC +12 because the only way they cover is if they get +24
Although KC and CHI are both 0-1 and the chart basically says you should take the away team in this case...but you must look at who they played the previous week. KC got blown out by houston (a potential 8-8 team) and chi barley lost to a potential superbowl team. Anyway, since this is a trend post, last season CHI always came back after a loss to smash their next opponent. I really believe if this line stays under 13 CHI is the play for sure.
the chart is going to read 16-35 after this game
anyway goodluck roberto
I don't need to reconsider anything ...
I simply put up a freebie trend pick by two minute warning site ...with the corresponding percentages.....
Aprreciate your hard work, been reading since last season and done well off your trends and picks, so time for me to pay back
I run a spread pool at work. The numbers might not be exact to the final lines because I sometimes have to guess a line as I issue them on Tuesday's. Also last year I took away the push by having every spread end in .5
Anyway here are the stats
Still a positvie result for the afc overall, with signinficant improvements in the 2nd half of the season again
AFC/NFC FROM 2005/2006 AND 2004/2005
05/06 04/05
WK 1 1/1 -
WK 2 2/2 1/3
WK 3 5/1 2/1
WK 4 1/2 1/0/1
WK 5 4/2 1/1
WK 6 2/2 3/1
WK 7 2/4 3/3
WK 8 2/2 2/1
WK 9 1/1 5/3
WK10 0/1 2/2
WK11 2/1 5/0/1
WK12 5/3 4/2
WK13 --- --
WK14 1/1 3/1
WK15 5/1 3/1
WK16 1/1 1/1
WK17 0/3 2/1/1
TOTAL 34/28 FOR 54.8% for 2005/06
TOTAL 38/21/3 FOR 61.3% FOR 2004/05
nice work
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Quote Originally Posted by kryten444:
HI Roberto
Aprreciate your hard work, been reading since last season and done well off your trends and picks, so time for me to pay back
I run a spread pool at work. The numbers might not be exact to the final lines because I sometimes have to guess a line as I issue them on Tuesday's. Also last year I took away the push by having every spread end in .5
Anyway here are the stats
Still a positvie result for the afc overall, with signinficant improvements in the 2nd half of the season again
....wow, I just noticed that the middle of my writeup (was too long, so had to go into 3 posts) didn't get copied pasted, not sure what happened there. It is saved at work so I will put it in here tomorrow because it covers the other 4 double-digit spread games.
We'll look forward to the rest of the trend leans .....
Nice contribution ....dogplaya
I am interested in the 49ers-Cardinals Under look....
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Quote Originally Posted by dogplaya:
....wow, I just noticed that the middle of my writeup (was too long, so had to go into 3 posts) didn't get copied pasted, not sure what happened there. It is saved at work so I will put it in here tomorrow because it covers the other 4 double-digit spread games.
We'll look forward to the rest of the trend leans .....
Nice contribution ....dogplaya
I am interested in the 49ers-Cardinals Under look....
Chicago is 65-8-2 ATS when they win outright in last 75 contests. Chicago is 17-5 ATS at Soldier Field against AFC teams. Kansas City is 4-13-1 ATS away playing an NFC teams
Oak is 8-2 ATS in September playing on the road off a home game Denveris 1-11 ATS in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last
Philly is 15-5 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons.
I think there might be a winning percentage in this group ....
DET is 12-4 ATS at home after scoring 28 or more points
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Quote Originally Posted by vegaslover:
Frankthetank had some interesting trends:
Chicago is 65-8-2 ATS when they win outright in last 75 contests. Chicago is 17-5 ATS at Soldier Field against AFC teams. Kansas City is 4-13-1 ATS away playing an NFC teams
Oak is 8-2 ATS in September playing on the road off a home game Denveris 1-11 ATS in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last
Philly is 15-5 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons.
I think there might be a winning percentage in this group ....
DET is 12-4 ATS at home after scoring 28 or more points
TO BACKUP YOUR KC PLAY, " PLAY AGAINST IN 2ND WEEK HOME TEAM IN NON-DIVISION GAME THAT LOST LAST GAME , PLAYING A TEAM THAT LOST WEEK 1 AND ARE GIVING GREATER THEN 7PTS . 0-12 ATS. KC IS THE PICK!!
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TO BACKUP YOUR KC PLAY, " PLAY AGAINST IN 2ND WEEK HOME TEAM IN NON-DIVISION GAME THAT LOST LAST GAME , PLAYING A TEAM THAT LOST WEEK 1 AND ARE GIVING GREATER THEN 7PTS . 0-12 ATS. KC IS THE PICK!!
TO BACKUP YOUR KC PLAY, " PLAY AGAINST IN 2ND WEEK HOME TEAM IN NON-DIVISION GAME THAT LOST LAST GAME , PLAYING A TEAM THAT LOST WEEK 1 AND ARE GIVING GREATER THEN 7PTS . 0-12 ATS. KC IS THE PICK!!
I can make stuff up too if I wanted too, why don't you try putting some proof of that statement.
Roberto- you're right I misread and thought you already choce KC as one of your pics.. I'll stay out and just read unless I see something I really think you should consider.. In this case I really think you'd be happy with the result if you took the bears this week. Last season there was a trend for the bears that went, they go 2-0 AST and then 0-1 AST, and that pattern repeated all season. Anyways Goodluck Roberto
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Quote Originally Posted by tomkarw:
TO BACKUP YOUR KC PLAY, " PLAY AGAINST IN 2ND WEEK HOME TEAM IN NON-DIVISION GAME THAT LOST LAST GAME , PLAYING A TEAM THAT LOST WEEK 1 AND ARE GIVING GREATER THEN 7PTS . 0-12 ATS. KC IS THE PICK!!
I can make stuff up too if I wanted too, why don't you try putting some proof of that statement.
Roberto- you're right I misread and thought you already choce KC as one of your pics.. I'll stay out and just read unless I see something I really think you should consider.. In this case I really think you'd be happy with the result if you took the bears this week. Last season there was a trend for the bears that went, they go 2-0 AST and then 0-1 AST, and that pattern repeated all season. Anyways Goodluck Roberto
Titans are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog
and they are at home ...getting 6.5 to 7 points
I will get back to you with the trend for a home dog getting 7 points or more over last 10 years....
They must be the Rodney Dangerfields of the NFL !
I don't care if they are playing the globetrotters ...This is a serious trend ...regardless of the opponent....
We're not here to cap the game ...just to state the facts !
Since 1996: Home dogs getting 7 or more are 105-63-7 ATS. Interestingly enough, while they do cover the spread at a good rate (60%), these home doggies have not won straight up too often---of those 105 ATS covers, only 57 were straight up wins.
IN 2001: Home dogs getting 7 or more were 12-6 ATS
IN 2002: Home dogs getting 7 or more were 10-4 ATS.
IN 2003: Home dogs getting 7 or more were 7-1-1 ATS.
IN 2004: Home dogs getting 7 or more were 7-7 ATS.
IN 2005: Home dogs getting 7 or more were 3-7-1 ATS.
LAST YEAR (2006): Home dogs getting 7 or more were 10-5 ATS.
It would appear that '04 & '05 were more of an anomoly and home doggies (of >=7) got back on track again last year.
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Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:
in my opinion .....at this point in time ...
Top trend for an underdog :
Tennessee:
Titans are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog
and they are at home ...getting 6.5 to 7 points
I will get back to you with the trend for a home dog getting 7 points or more over last 10 years....
They must be the Rodney Dangerfields of the NFL !
I don't care if they are playing the globetrotters ...This is a serious trend ...regardless of the opponent....
We're not here to cap the game ...just to state the facts !
Since 1996: Home dogs getting 7 or more are 105-63-7 ATS. Interestingly enough, while they do cover the spread at a good rate (60%), these home doggies have not won straight up too often---of those 105 ATS covers, only 57 were straight up wins.
IN 2001: Home dogs getting 7 or more were 12-6 ATS
IN 2002: Home dogs getting 7 or more were 10-4 ATS.
IN 2003: Home dogs getting 7 or more were 7-1-1 ATS.
IN 2004: Home dogs getting 7 or more were 7-7 ATS.
IN 2005: Home dogs getting 7 or more were 3-7-1 ATS.
LAST YEAR (2006): Home dogs getting 7 or more were 10-5 ATS.
It would appear that '04 & '05 were more of an anomoly and home doggies (of >=7) got back on track again last year.
Thanks dogplaya ...but I wanted trends ...FAVORING MIAMI ....
not the other way around ....
My bad...I was just looking at trends for the game itself. Here is some info favoring Miami specifically.....
Dolphins are 29-15 SU in September since 1994.
Also, as a home dog of 3 or more, the Fish are 6-3 ATS AND SU since '96. One of those losses was to the Cowboys as a 3 point home dog (1996--WK 9: Dallas 29-Miami 10).
More recently, the Fish have won the last 4 straight (ATS & SU) at home as a dog of 3 or more.
Something that stands out about these last 4 straight wins is the level of their competition.......2 of the 4 wins were over the Pats, including the SHUTOUT they pitched late last season while the other two wins were against the Broncos and the Panthers. I also noticed that the OVER is 6-2 in L8 (as home dog of >/= 3). So, the Fish seem to really get up for good teams coming in favored and not only cover but win and put more than the norm points on the board.
Lastly, while this is not a "trend", there is another thing that has to be taken into account when looking at this game..........it is a "sandwich" game for the 'Boys as they are coming off national TV game against a bitter division rival and they surely are looking ahead to next week when they go to Chicago for another nationally televised Sunday nighter. Don't forget AFC vs. NFC either.
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Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:
Thanks dogplaya ...but I wanted trends ...FAVORING MIAMI ....
not the other way around ....
My bad...I was just looking at trends for the game itself. Here is some info favoring Miami specifically.....
Dolphins are 29-15 SU in September since 1994.
Also, as a home dog of 3 or more, the Fish are 6-3 ATS AND SU since '96. One of those losses was to the Cowboys as a 3 point home dog (1996--WK 9: Dallas 29-Miami 10).
More recently, the Fish have won the last 4 straight (ATS & SU) at home as a dog of 3 or more.
Something that stands out about these last 4 straight wins is the level of their competition.......2 of the 4 wins were over the Pats, including the SHUTOUT they pitched late last season while the other two wins were against the Broncos and the Panthers. I also noticed that the OVER is 6-2 in L8 (as home dog of >/= 3). So, the Fish seem to really get up for good teams coming in favored and not only cover but win and put more than the norm points on the board.
Lastly, while this is not a "trend", there is another thing that has to be taken into account when looking at this game..........it is a "sandwich" game for the 'Boys as they are coming off national TV game against a bitter division rival and they surely are looking ahead to next week when they go to Chicago for another nationally televised Sunday nighter. Don't forget AFC vs. NFC either.
...............well, i think that if 57 of the 105 dogs of +7 won outright........., then that is, in reality, a very high figure !!!
Remember, we are talking about outright dog wins !!!!!
Yes, I see your point lajohn, however.....I guess I was just so impressed with the ATS number that I was surprised to see how many were just covers as opposed to SU wins since we all know that the SU winner is the ATS winner nearly 75%-85% of the time.
Most importantly, I wanted to make sure and throw that SU figure out there so that nobody would blindly start plopping $$ on the moneyline due to the ATS success. Overall, 54% SU win rate as such a large-number dog is a relatively high figure, you are correct there.
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Quote Originally Posted by lajohn:
...............well, i think that if 57 of the 105 dogs of +7 won outright........., then that is, in reality, a very high figure !!!
Remember, we are talking about outright dog wins !!!!!
Yes, I see your point lajohn, however.....I guess I was just so impressed with the ATS number that I was surprised to see how many were just covers as opposed to SU wins since we all know that the SU winner is the ATS winner nearly 75%-85% of the time.
Most importantly, I wanted to make sure and throw that SU figure out there so that nobody would blindly start plopping $$ on the moneyline due to the ATS success. Overall, 54% SU win rate as such a large-number dog is a relatively high figure, you are correct there.
Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Jaguars are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on Grass.
Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Atlanta 6-1 last 6 on grass...
Harrington will have a good game or 2 throughout the year. What do you think about this for a spot? Any other trends on this game besides the fact that Atlanta is 4-1 ats last 5 head 2 head & 2-0 in Jax? I know it's a different offense without Vick, but Jags gave up about 250 on the ground last week vs. Tennessee & Atlanta is a stronger running team than passing.
ok ...now ....
Yes , Atlanta qualifies for this trend brought up by two minute warning that states the following :
in Week 2 ( since 1992 ) Home teams that are 0-1 playing another 0-1 team are only 15-35 ATS ( 30 % )
Conversely, Away teams ( 0-1 ) vs Home teams ( 0-1 ) are 35-15ATS ( 70 % ) on week 2 ....since 1992
Qualifying matchups :
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
Atlanta @ Jacksonville
NYJets @ Baltimore
Kansas City @ Chicago
Your comment about there being an NFC vs AFC early season trend is not accurate ... I pointed out that even though there was a statistical dominance by the AFC to the tune of 32-24-2 ATS ( 56% ) the AFC was only 6-11-1 ATS from week 1-7...
The the AFC turned it on going 26-13-1 from weeks 8 through end of season. This does not mean that the same patter will hold this year however ....
Let's look at kryten444 database for 2004-2005 & 2005-2006>>
( to be continued )
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Quote Originally Posted by bulubulu:
Roberto,
The Atlanta Falcons + 10
fall into the 0-1 vs. 0-1 system &
NFC vs. AFC early season trend.
Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Jaguars are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on Grass.
Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Atlanta 6-1 last 6 on grass...
Harrington will have a good game or 2 throughout the year. What do you think about this for a spot? Any other trends on this game besides the fact that Atlanta is 4-1 ats last 5 head 2 head & 2-0 in Jax? I know it's a different offense without Vick, but Jags gave up about 250 on the ground last week vs. Tennessee & Atlanta is a stronger running team than passing.
ok ...now ....
Yes , Atlanta qualifies for this trend brought up by two minute warning that states the following :
in Week 2 ( since 1992 ) Home teams that are 0-1 playing another 0-1 team are only 15-35 ATS ( 30 % )
Conversely, Away teams ( 0-1 ) vs Home teams ( 0-1 ) are 35-15ATS ( 70 % ) on week 2 ....since 1992
Qualifying matchups :
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
Atlanta @ Jacksonville
NYJets @ Baltimore
Kansas City @ Chicago
Your comment about there being an NFC vs AFC early season trend is not accurate ... I pointed out that even though there was a statistical dominance by the AFC to the tune of 32-24-2 ATS ( 56% ) the AFC was only 6-11-1 ATS from week 1-7...
The the AFC turned it on going 26-13-1 from weeks 8 through end of season. This does not mean that the same patter will hold this year however ....
Let's look at kryten444 database for 2004-2005 & 2005-2006>>
Guys... Guys... Guys .... Oakland loses this game against Denver !! Denver has owned them ..... 27 - 17 for Denver ... Gl, to everyone on their picks !!
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Guys... Guys... Guys .... Oakland loses this game against Denver !! Denver has owned them ..... 27 - 17 for Denver ... Gl, to everyone on their picks !!
From RF: I am interested in the 49ers-Cardinals Under look....
Not sure if this helps, but.....
IN ST. LOUIS: When the niners cover the spread, the UNDER is 5-1 (with that one OVER being by just 1.5pts). When the Rams cover the spread, the UNDER is 1-3). The one push was went WAAAY OVER. Again, this is in St. Louis only and stats from '96 to present. Looks like if someone has a strong lean/bet as to the sides, that should answer whether OVER OR UNDER is the play.
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From RF: I am interested in the 49ers-Cardinals Under look....
Not sure if this helps, but.....
IN ST. LOUIS: When the niners cover the spread, the UNDER is 5-1 (with that one OVER being by just 1.5pts). When the Rams cover the spread, the UNDER is 1-3). The one push was went WAAAY OVER. Again, this is in St. Louis only and stats from '96 to present. Looks like if someone has a strong lean/bet as to the sides, that should answer whether OVER OR UNDER is the play.
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....wow, I just noticed that the middle of my writeup (was too long, so had to go into 3 posts) didn't get copied pasted, not sure what happened there. It is saved at work so I will put it in here tomorrow because it covers the other 4 double-digit spread games. 
My bad...I was just looking at trends for the game itself. Here is some info favoring Miami specifically..... 
Guys... Guys... Guys .... Oakland loses this game against Denver !! Denver has owned them ..... 27 - 17 for Denver ... Gl, to everyone on their picks !!
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