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WEEK 7 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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Posted: #251
Quote Originally Posted by xflrejects:

si1ly

 

GREAT STUFF!

 

I have actually read virtually every entry quickly in this thread and wanted to know if you are able to or had in any way factored in the record of teams heading into the bye . Currently at 1-11 ATS with BUF and CIN  being our two ugly ducklings this week.

NO was the lone exception on that MNF with Brees going into the game with Unitas record looming.

TEN has had BUF's # as well over the years . Yet, I like BUF in this game but wonder how prepared they will be after being out west for 2 weeks.

Love the rest of your plays with only exception I'm wrestling with being TB.

Road team does very well in that series. Under has hit 7 X in a row and NO coming off a bye with Vilma back and TB coming off a blowout and TB has a brutal home record of being a fave or dog of between -3 and +3.

Again an awesome weekly contribution here at Covers! Kudos.


My model is purely statistically driven.  Besides a small adjustment for home field advantage and any other minor changes I have to make because of injuries, I do not allow situational spots to influence the output.  If teams are 1-11 ATS going into the bye this year then that's something to pay attention to I guess.. make sure the trend is consistent with historical results.. what happens when the sample size goes from 12 to 112?  I find it best to filter the stat driven models with your own risk profile and situational spots you look for.
 
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Posted: #252
Lot of good questions this morning, I'll try and get to them as soon as I can.. I'll also finalize plays in a separate thread in the next few hours.
 
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Posted: #253
Quote Originally Posted by Poor-Derf:

Si1ly.    
Thanks for everything.  a little info u probably already know.   My home town steelers  r banged up.  Rbs r out.  Linemen r out. I couldn't even name u 8 starters on defense anymore.  And I am a die hard.  They always struggle on the road.   The only strength they have right now is Ben and their wideouts.   There will be a lot of big plays by the offense of Cincinnati today.  I've seen this game before.  Steelers only chance is to use big Ben like Ariens did.  And I think they will.  Cincy will win this game.  I say 31-27 ish.   I think there is value on the over here but I also think the steelers drop another game here.   Just wanted to share my thoughts as I feel I have a good idea about this game.  

Classic over game for me.  Two bottom 10 defenses against two offenses with little or no running game.  I see a lot of plays going through the air with a slow running clock.  Steelers should be able to exploit Cinci's #30 ranked pass defense.  Meanwhile, the Bengals will take advantage of the Steelers injuries on the defensive end and match them point for point.  I like the Bengals on the spread, but I'm a little too concerned about their defense to back them against Big Ben and the Steelers new vertical offense.  Should be a shootout and the opening total of 45 confirms this suspicion.  I will almost certainly be on the over 45 tonight.  Good luck!
 
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Posted: #254

say goodbye to your streak my friend.  b/c I'm blind tailing today

let's do it!

 
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Posted: #255
Silly I know you like TB today, but last week every team coming off a bye won. What are your thoughts of that happening agaig?
 
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Posted: #256
Silly I know you like TB today, but last week every team coming off a bye won. What are your thoughts of that happening agaig?
 
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Posted: #257

Quote Originally Posted by BIGCAT_LSU:

Silly I know you like TB today, but last week every team coming off a bye won. What are your thoughts of that happening agaig?

 

I sure do wish people would read through the thread to make sure he hasn't already answered the question before it's asked.  In this case, it's just at the top of the page.  Geez... 

 

GL today Si1Ly 

 
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Posted: #258
Quote Originally Posted by BIGCAT_LSU:

Silly I know you like TB today, but last week every team coming off a bye won. What are your thoughts of that happening agaig?

The numbers are what they are.  Brees is missing his number 1 target in the air and the Bucs haven't allowed a passing touchdown in count em - three weeks!  They have an elite pass d with or without talib in the lineup.  But the real issue is the Saints defense.  Do you think two weeks is enough time to fix their problems?  Probably not.  The Bucs are at home following a bye week and an easy game at home last week.  They're in just as good a scheduling spot as New Orleans.  The reverse line movement confirms that sharps recognize how overvalued the Saints are as road favorites.  They just shouldn't be.  I like the Bucs to win at home.
 
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Posted: #259
Quote Originally Posted by BIGCAT_LSU:

Silly I know you like TB today, but last week every team coming off a bye won. What are your thoughts of that happening agaig?
one week trends don't hold up here in Silly camp. A 5 year trend might, however
 
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Posted: #260
Quote Originally Posted by roondog248:


When you say opposition, is that teams they have played or what the league average is?

Only teams they have played.  That's how the index becomes normalized relative to the strength of a team's competition.
 
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Posted: #261
Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

one week trends don't hold up here in Silly camp. A 5 year trend might, however

 
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Posted: #262

I think yoiu've got about 5 points of value with Baltimore today. Yes Lewis is out but Suggs is back. I'll take the seven

 

 

 
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Posted: #263

Silly,

 

Just wanted to say thanks for providing a fantastic insight and informative post, something covers is recently lacking.  Keep up good work and BOL to you today on plays.

 
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Posted: #264
 
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Posted: #265
Quote Originally Posted by JBender:

I think yoiu've got about 5 points of value with Baltimore today. Yes Lewis is out but Suggs is back. I'll take the seven

 

 

Suggs fat and out of shape though I think?
 
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Posted: #266
Yeah, don't read into Suggs being back in the line-up.  It's only media-hype.  I doubt he's game ready to handle what the Texans have to bring at home in a revenge game.  I think the rising spread is an indication that the Texans put their foot on the gas today and don't let up.  I'm starting to like the over.
 
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Posted: #267

I'm playing Raven +7 as well. They are going into a bye. The Ravens have HEART & they also have a NICK SABAN coached linebacker still in the line up. I look for Courtney Upshaw to have a huge day!!

I also played:

MIN/AZ under 40.5

Giants -6

MNF Bears -6 ( Tailed You )

Feed back appreciated. You do a great job!!

 
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Posted: #268

Locked in:

6.5 Point Teaser - Tampa Bay +8.5  &  Houston PK (-110)
 
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Posted: #269
I'm still getting offered Tampa +2 and this can be a problematic spread.  Vegas was forced to move this off the key number as it was obviously getting too much action from the sharps.  With the announcement of Jimmy sitting and this spread was never going to see 3 again.  A 1.5 to 2.5 point underdog spread is the best teaser option in football.  You can cross the key numbers 3, 4 and 7 on a single tease.  I won't pass this up.  I think Houston is as good a team as any to tease down to pick'em.
 
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Posted: #270
Quote Originally Posted by BamaTaxMan:

I'm playing Raven +7 as well. They are going into a bye. The Ravens have HEART & they also have a NICK SABAN coached linebacker still in the line up. I look for Courtney Upshaw to have a huge day!!

I also played:

MIN/AZ under 40.5

Giants -6

MNF Bears -6 ( Tailed You )

Feed back appreciated. You do a great job!!


I think the side in the Giants and Houston game is at fair value.  I really like the other two plays.  I doubt Arizona gets into the endzone more than twice today.  The rising spread is an indication that Minny might blow them out.
 
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Posted: #271
good stuff
thanks
 
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Posted: #272
being offered -6.5 on Bears ... wait, hit, or pass?
 
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Posted: #273
The primary link might back up with over use so I duplicated all the files and I have a back-up link here.  Hopefully the traffic can get spread around.  If you have trouble accessing the sheets using the link in the first post, use the link below:

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvTm9DRUQxUXIzM28/edit
 
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Posted: #274
Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

being offered -6.5 on Bears ... wait, hit, or pass?

It's not going to 7 and if it does you should probably hammer the Bears.  I'd say you have nothing to lose by waiting.  Might see some buyback in a divisional game on prime time back to 6.  I don't think 5.5 will be offered again.  I think the spread will bounce between 6 ; 6.5 and +100 ; -120 through the weekend.
 
 
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Locked in:

8:30 EST - Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Over 45 (-105)
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