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WEEK 7 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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Posted: #301
Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

was firing up a teaser with Browns,Cincy and both lines moved on me right before my eyes

Thinking about Browns +1..  mistake?  if you've answered this somewhere I apologize.  Don't have time to scour this massive thread


lol I know it's getting a bit out of hand.  The baseball forum was so much more peaceful and I had the luxury of changing threads every day.

I think the Browns/Colts game is too hard to cap.  Colts play great at home but they're missing a bunch of defensive players and the Browns are better than people give them credit for.  The spread is hovering around PK now because that's what this game is..  I think the better bet in this game is the over, but when it's a pissing contest between two teams that will miss the playoffs, I find it best to leave it off the card entirely.  These types of bets are probably just long term juicers.
 
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Posted: #302
Quote Originally Posted by crunkballbettor:

The Saints favored imo is Tampas secondary isnt very good..so ive been told. both teams missing some people. I think itll be a high scoring game. but i think brees will light up Tampa in the end

Tampa's secondary hasn't allowed a touchdown in the air in three weeks.
 
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Posted: #303
Quote Originally Posted by js4u:

Hey si1ly:  Based on evaluating your sheets a few plays stood out to me and would like your thoughts. 

These appear to be the top 2 "Team Totals", "Sides" & "Totals".

 

1.  Buffalo TT Over 24.5

2.  Chicago TT Over 26.5

3.  Arizona +7

4.  Chicago -6.5

5.  Tenn/Buff Over 46

6.  Wash/NYG Over 51.5

 
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Posted: #304
Those overs all look good on paper, but they look just as good with surface stats as they do in the advanced numbers.  When that happens you can probably assume that the sportsbooks were able to get a really good read on the game and they probably have set a fair total.  I really like the Bears on MNF, they have a huge advantage on paper.  Arizona crossing a key number of 7 can be a good thing if you were looking for that value, but it could be a bad thing in that it indicates that Minnesota might blow the Cardinals out.  A move like this is just as likely to scare me off an underdog as it is to entice me onto a key number.  In this case, I'm laying off.  Should be a low scoring game though.
 
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Posted: #305
Bol
 
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Posted: #306
si1ly  I asked about Arizona because you model has a final of about Arizona 20, Minn 17
 
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Posted: #307
Thanks for all your hard work, and its FREE! GL to all!
 
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Posted: #308

si1ly 

Based on your info what do you think of a 6.5 teaser

tb +7.5

Houst -.5

Cb pk

 

 
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Posted: #309
Quote Originally Posted by js4u:

si1ly  I asked about Arizona because you model has a final of about Arizona 20, Minn 17

I know, but something doesn't seem right about this game.  Also I mentioned awhile back that my models had inconsistent results on this game and I wasn't really sure what to make of it.  It's just not a game I'm interested in wagering on.
 
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Posted: #310

Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

one week trends don't hold up here in Silly camp. A 5 year trend might, however
found this in a reputable thread... just FYI

stat about BYE-week favorites.. They've won at 64% ATS clip since 2004

 
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Posted: #311
Jus like to say Thanks for all the hard work Si1ly! Let get it!
 
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Posted: #312

5t4r5align

Play against any road favorite playing a Bad Team after it played a Good Team the previous week (56-39-2, 58.9% ATS): Road favorites are usually up against it regardless of the circumstances, and when you add in the Letdown Theory that this angle implies, you have the makings of a very strong angle. This angle won the last time it turned up in Week 5 when the Colts upset the Packers outright. Qualifiers: Carolina +1 vs. Dallas and St. Louis +5 vs. Green Bay.

 
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Posted: #313

5t4r5align:  Sorry I just posted the wrong angle above.  Here is the bye week trend you referred to.

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (78-40-4, 66.1% ATS): NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and the added time off oftentimes has resulted in any injured players the teams may have also having extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. This angle won its only play in Week 6 with Tampa Bay. Qualifiers: New Orleans -2½ and Chicago -6 (Monday).

 
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Posted: #314
Well locking in final plays with my own picks..si1lys picks and 2 other great cappers on here(im not one of them ha)
 
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Posted: #315
js4u
 
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Posted: #316
s1lly - obviously appreciate your work. awesome sheets

wanna hear something funny?

google is overloaded on your docs. they wont let anyone else on...

There are currently too many people viewing this document. Please try again later.
 
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Posted: #317

si1ly - thoughts on this 3 team 7 pt teaser - pays +120

 

Bills +3

Az +14

NYG +1/2

 

thanks

 
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Posted: #318
Quote Originally Posted by HoustonSports:

si1ly - thoughts on this 3 team 7 pt teaser - pays +120

 

Bills +3

Az +14

NYG +1/2

 

thanks


What's your book's teaser rules?  Ties win or lose or push?  But to be honest, I'm not a big fan of it.  Bills/Titans game is a shitty game to have money on.  Giants are in a tough spot and the line movement against Zona is concerning.  None of these games really interest me.
 
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Posted: #319
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Primary Link

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvWVdnX2Etd1FtRjA/edit


Secondary Link

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvTm9DRUQxUXIzM28/edit



 
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Posted: #320
Quote Originally Posted by idle_havoc:

probably the most informative thread here
thanks

I hope you die in a grass fire buddy... I dont see you trying to help others with your insights... 
 
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Posted: #321
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


What's your book's teaser rules?  Ties win or lose or push?  But to be honest, I'm not a big fan of it.  Bills/Titans game is a shitty game to have money on.  Giants are in a tough spot and the line movement against Zona is concerning.  None of these games really interest me.

 

ties push - I appreciate the honest feed back

 
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Posted: #322
Was just wondering if we could get an update of the confirmed plays thus far?  Really appreciate all your hard work and analysis.  It's an asset to the forum
 
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Posted: #323
Quote Originally Posted by azimm11:

Was just wondering if we could get an update of the confirmed plays thus far?  Really appreciate all your hard work and analysis.  It's an asset to the forum

 
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Posted: #324
Thanks for all the kind words guys.  Time to fire up the grill.  Good luck everyone!   
 
 
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Posted: #325
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Thanks for all the kind words guys.  Time to fire up the grill.  Good luck everyone!   
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