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WEEK 7 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 19, 2012 - 5:42 PM ET #201

Quote Originally Posted by pcz:

based off your spreadsheets, what do you think about this play?

Select #1  : NFL Football
               St. Louis Rams  10/21/2012 10:00 AM - (PST)  
               Money Line +200 for Game   
Select #2  : NFL Football
               Tampa Bay Buccaneers  10/21/2012 10:00 AM - (PST)  
               Money Line +110 for Game

Definitely like it. I would think you might get more value on those moneylines closer to kickoff though.

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5t4r5align

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 9543

Posted: Oct. 19, 2012 - 5:44 PM ET #202

If I could pull myself away from the MLB playoffs I'm sure I would have tailed that under

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si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 19, 2012 - 6:59 PM ET #203

The more I look into the Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati game the more I'm liking the over.

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CanadianFooty11

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 7

Posted: Oct. 19, 2012 - 7:46 PM ET #204

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Your question sort of answers itself. These aren't robots out there so there's no way to quantify exactly how much a player is worth to his team. ESPECIALLY the first week of their absence. Sometimes a team will respond really well in the first week, following the 'next man up' practice. It can give them a temporary moral boost as much as it can hurt their overall skill level. If you're asking about a specifically player we can look at their value on a case-by-case basis, but it's just not possible to say if a team is missing their starting corner that it's worth 2.5 points on the spread.

Thanks for that response. Well said. I've been looking at average points per game for offence and defence for each team and subtracting the two to get a net for each team. Compare each team's net and I come up with a spread. However this doesn't take into account the past teams they have played which is why I'm really interested in the relative performance index numbers. Thanks to your earlier post I understand how they are calculated however do you do these calculations yourself or is there an easier source on the internet to get them? You gave an example with the SF/SEA game and I'm wondering if the Adv section at the bottom of the RPI section represents that calculation you did on an earlier post. You mentioned that the final score would be about 17-10 or something like that which is something you did just after you came up with the adv SF +7.5 to make it more realistic? Thanks for all your time answering these questions btw it really helps the learning process cuz this shit aint easy.

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avaLOS

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 37

Posted: Oct. 19, 2012 - 7:46 PM ET #205

This is amazing info man!! Love it! Really appreciate the time you took to gather this great info for everyone on covers. Great thread!

BOL man.

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si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 19, 2012 - 8:15 PM ET #206

Quote Originally Posted by CanadianFooty11:

Thanks for that response. Well said. I've been looking at average points per game for offence and defence for each team and subtracting the two to get a net for each team. Compare each team's net and I come up with a spread. However this doesn't take into account the past teams they have played which is why I'm really interested in the relative performance index numbers. Thanks to your earlier post I understand how they are calculated however do you do these calculations yourself or is there an easier source on the internet to get them? You gave an example with the SF/SEA game and I'm wondering if the Adv section at the bottom of the RPI section represents that calculation you did on an earlier post. You mentioned that the final score would be about 17-10 or something like that which is something you did just after you came up with the adv SF +7.5 to make it more realistic? Thanks for all your time answering these questions btw it really helps the learning process cuz this shit aint easy.

Unfortunately there's nowhere else where you can find the RPI numbers online so I have to do them myself. There's not even an easy way to automate the process in my databases. I have to manually add the new opponent into each data set each week (so every Monday and Tuesday I hand-edit over 300 individual cells). As automated as I've been able to get the handicapping process, I still have a lot of work to do each week to maintain the databases. Still, the result of having each game handicapped every week with everything I need organized onto a single page is well worth the time I put in.

The ADV calculation at the end does not represent that calculation on this weeks sheets.. but I've already reprogrammed them to output that number when I publish the sheets next week. Currently it's simply the differential of the +/-.

I prefer not to publish an exact score prediction on the sheet as I find it can be misleading. I project a total and a spread, and I guess you can extrapolate likely scores using that information, but they read much better as two separate numbers. Otherwise it would be too easy to get sucked into a single score prediction.

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Quote Originally Posted by CanadianFooty11:

Thanks for that response. Well said. I've been looking at average points per game for offence and defence for each team and subtracting the two to get a net for each team. Compare each team's net and I come up with a spread. However this doesn't take into account the past teams they have played which is why I'm really interested in the relative performance index numbers. Thanks to your earlier post I understand how they are calculated however do you do these calculations yourself or is there an easier source on the internet to get them? You gave an example with the SF/SEA game and I'm wondering if the Adv section at the bottom of the RPI section represents that calculation you did on an earlier post. You mentioned that the final score would be about 17-10 or something like that which is something you did just after you came up with the adv SF +7.5 to make it more realistic? Thanks for all your time answering these questions btw it really helps the learning process cuz this shit aint easy.

Unfortunately there's nowhere else where you can find the RPI numbers online so I have to do them myself. There's not even an easy way to automate the process in my databases. I have to manually add the new opponent into each data set each week (so every Monday and Tuesday I hand-edit over 300 individual cells). As automated as I've been able to get the handicapping process, I still have a lot of work to do each week to maintain the databases. Still, the result of having each game handicapped every week with everything I need organized onto a single page is well worth the time I put in.

The ADV calculation at the end does not represent that calculation on this weeks sheets.. but I've already reprogrammed them to output that number when I publish the sheets next week. Currently it's simply the differential of the +/-.

I prefer not to publish an exact score prediction on the sheet as I find it can be misleading. I project a total and a spread, and I guess you can extrapolate likely scores using that information, but they read much better as two separate numbers. Otherwise it would be too easy to get sucked into a single score prediction.

pcz

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 348

Posted: Oct. 19, 2012 - 9:46 PM ET #207

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Definitely like it. I would think you might get more value on those moneylines closer to kickoff though.

Thanks for the tip :)

Are you predicting pub money is going towards faves?

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CanadianFooty11

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 7

Posted: Oct. 19, 2012 - 10:53 PM ET #208

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Unfortunately there's nowhere else where you can find the RPI numbers online so I have to do them myself. There's not even an easy way to automate the process in my databases. I have to manually add the new opponent into each data set each week (so every Monday and Tuesday I hand-edit over 300 individual cells). As automated as I've been able to get the handicapping process, I still have a lot of work to do each week to maintain the databases. Still, the result of having each game handicapped every week with everything I need organized onto a single page is well worth the time I put in.

The ADV calculation at the end does not represent that calculation on this weeks sheets.. but I've already reprogrammed them to output that number when I publish the sheets next week. Currently it's simply the differential of the +/-.

I prefer not to publish an exact score prediction on the sheet as I find it can be misleading. I project a total and a spread, and I guess you can extrapolate likely scores using that information, but they read much better as two separate numbers. Otherwise it would be too easy to get sucked into a single score prediction.

Gotcha well in that case good on ya for all the hard work. I'd like to share some other insights I have with ya and get your opinion on them but I'll post another time. Early work tomorrow.

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MotorCitySmitty

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 155

Posted: Oct. 19, 2012 - 11:47 PM ET #209

THIS IS A GREAT JOB BRO!

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coachwbb

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 31

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 12:10 AM ET #210

Thanks Si1ly...you put an incredible amount of time in....I really enjoy your posts. Also thanks to Mrs. Si1ly, she must be very understanding. If you and GG go into business, I'll work for you...I will retire! GL

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TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54462

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 1:32 AM ET #211

One of the best threads on covers. Strong work

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juniorafe13

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 36

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 3:12 AM ET #212

What are your sunday plays? Appreciate the help. How do u feel about colts vs browns this weekend. Its hard to believe my rams will cover without our best receiver

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milkman152jd

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 44

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 3:34 AM ET #213

great stuff silly one of the true cappers on covers

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walbanger

Rookie

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 950

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 9:08 AM ET #214

Good luck with your plays Si1ly. Unfortunately the lines are all moving against what you have. Tampa concerns me the most because it moved off a key number. They are +2 now. Would you still take them getting less than a field goal?

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si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 10:53 AM ET #215

Quote Originally Posted by juniorafe13:

What are your sunday plays? Appreciate the help. How do u feel about colts vs browns this weekend. Its hard to believe my rams will cover without our best receiver

The Rams have solid line value created by the discrepancy between public perception and the actual skill of their defense. That said, they're in a tough spot playing a Green Bay team that looked like it clicked offensively last week.

The Colts are getting a little more love than they deserve. My models have the Browns power ranked higher than the Colts which means they shouldn't be more than +2.5 underdogs at the highest.. in fact I think this line should be close to PK. I like the Browns, but in match-ups like this I try and avoid backing the road team. Probably a pass for me as I think the Browns are the right side, but in a tough spot to back them.

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si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 10:56 AM ET #216

Quote Originally Posted by walbanger:

Good luck with your plays Si1ly. Unfortunately the lines are all moving against what you have. Tampa concerns me the most because it moved off a key number. They are +2 now. Would you still take them getting less than a field goal?

I haven't locked in either Tampa or Cincinnati. The reverse line movement is comforting if anything. It tells me sharp investors are seeing the same things I'm seeing in the line. Noway in hell should the Saints be road favorites! My models pump out Tampa from -4 all the way up to -8.5. They're the better team and they're playing at home in a divisional rivalry. The only thing the Saints have that Tampa doesn't is a bye week last week. But playing the Chiefs after a bye week last week and the Bucs might as well of had two weeks off. Besides, we might see the line climb back towards +3 (-120) as public money continues to pound the Saints at less than a field goal odds.

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hardyvault

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 95

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 11:51 AM ET #217

After week three, I got to thinking about RPI for the NFL, and the lack of one. We use RPI for every other sport, so I started running my own spread sheets to come up with one. You are right, it is a lot of work and time entering the data. I have a meeting this weekend with an accountant to get some help programming a spread sheet to cut down on the needed entries. Will let you know if I find some useful information.

Thanks for the work & time put in, continued success

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Dgretzky69

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 1580

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 1:26 PM ET #218

you are a true asset to the covers forum and the main reason so many of us keeping coming back. Keep doing what you do

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statsman49

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 64

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 2:00 PM ET #219

Hey si1ly, have taken your standardised concept on board and am currently using it to for ball park totals, and pass and rsh yard prediction to play QB over/unders, going quite well at the moment. What are you using for your database? I have mine quite automated on excel and there should be a way you can automate, happy to chat to you and help if I can, added you as a friend

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MR_31_FLAVERZ

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2008

Posts: 74

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 2:03 PM ET #220

What do you think on the OVER on redskins/giants game?? An over on the titans/bills game??

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Preze

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 204

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 2:22 PM ET #221

Very good info on here! Great job si1ly on collecting that info

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MR_31_FLAVERZ

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2008

Posts: 74

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 2:25 PM ET #222

Here's my leans....

Giants/redskins OVER 51

Titans/bills 46 and bills -3

Bucs +1

Cowboys/panthers OVER 45

Bengals +1

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SupFresh

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2010

Posts: 154

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 2:30 PM ET #223

Hey Si1ly thanks for all your hard work.

When can we expect your final plays?

Thanks!

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si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 7:56 PM ET #224

Quote Originally Posted by SupFresh:

Hey Si1ly thanks for all your hard work.

When can we expect your final plays?

Thanks!

I'll have my plays for tomorrow up sometime between 10am-12pm

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Louis_IV

Legend

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 34702

Posted: Oct. 20, 2012 - 8:07 PM ET #225

gl my man

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WEEK 7 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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