Werker's SUPER BOWL

LOOKIN FOR CRAZY BILL TO HAVE A RUN/RUN PLAN,,,

EVERYBODY THINKS THE BALLS WILL BE FLYIN,,HMMMM

RUNING GAME AND TURN OVERS,THIS WILL BE A SLUGFEAST...

UNDER...................

NEW ENGLAND HAS PLAY IN INDY MANY ATIMES,,PATS GET A PLUS,,,

STILL THINK PATS WILL TRY TO SLOW THE GAME DOWN TO SEE  HOW THE OVER SIDE GETS THIER YARDS...

CRAZY BILL HAS A WAY OF DOIN THIS KIND OF THING AND YES THEY CAN RUN THE BALL ON  G/MEN..

Here is an interesting streak that I'm not too sure what you can do with. The NFC has won the coin toss 14 straight times. The statistical odds of doing this are over 16,000 to 1. They can't make it 15 - can they?

Here's another interesting stat that you can keep your eye on - the team that won the turnover battle has won 34 of 36 Super Bowls.

I read this post at another website and thought it offered up some excellent analysis.

When looking over the numbers this is an unusual Super Bowl.  It is remarkable that either team is even playing in this game.  Lets look at the numbers from the Championship games.

New England was -2 in turnovers.  To win a game losing the turnover battle by 2 is extremely difficult to do in the NFL.  Teams who win the TO battle in the playoffs win close to 80% of the time.  That number is slightly lower for home teams, who are able to overcome this deficit a bit easier.  They are also usually the better of the two teams in the playoffs.  What makes this even more amazing is New England lost the TO battle with Denver as well.  If the home team loses 30% of the time that it loses the turnover battle then the odds of them winning back to back games while losing the turnover battle would be about 9%.  Another key stat to victory is yards per play.  New England gave up 5.69 YPP against Baltimore while they gained just 4.85 per play.  I am not sure what the numbers are for teams losing both of these statistics in a game and winning but it has to be highly improbable.  To overcome -2 turnovers you really need the offense to be clicking on every possession and New England was not against Baltimore.

The New York Giants probably should not be in this game either.  The Giants won the turnover battle by 2.  They were able to stay turnover free against a team that was +28 in turnovers on the season.  Of course the two special teams turnovers gave the game to the Giants and got them in the Super Bowl.  The Giants YPP in that game were a mere 3.91 and they gave up 5.75 YPP.  The 49ers game plan was what it had been all season.  Play it close to the vest and win the special teams and turnover battle.  They played it close to the vest but they could not win the turnover battle.  The Williams muffed punt may not have even mattered had SF been able to hold on to two easy interceptions.  Both passes were so well covered that there were two defenders in position to pick off both and both times they got in each others way.  If either one is held on to the outcome may have been very different.  It was a game where everything went perfectly for the Giants and thus they get a shot to play in another Super Bowl.

There have been 36 Super Bowls in which one team has won the turnover battle.  In those games the winner in turnovers has won 34 of the 36 games.  That is a 34-2 record.  Think about that before you bet a prop saying "team that wins turnovers won't/will win the game".  The odds better be comparable.  The Giants lost 7 games this year.  They lost in turnovers in 6 of the 7 and tied in one.  In the last 5 games, in which they have won them all, they have yet to lose in turnovers.  As stated earlier, New England is on a 2 game negative TO differential streak.  Prior to that they won TO's for 8 straight games and they won all 8 of those.

This is game is unusual in another aspect and that is the familiarity these teams have for each other.  They played in the Super Bowl and regular season in 2007 as well as playing each other this season.  The Giants are 2-1 in those three games.  The games were decided by 3, 3, and 4 points respectively.  So a 3 point line seems to be about right.  You are not going to find many "loose" lines come Super Bowl time.  This game is the most bet game in all of sports.

In the 3 previous match ups the team who won the turnover battle is 2-0.  The Super Bowl saw both teams yield just 1 turnover a piece.  The Patriots rushing numbers in each game read like this:

Game 16 2007: 26-44 1.69 YPR
Super Bowl 2007: 16-45 2.81 YPR
Game 8 2011: 24-106 4.42 YPR

There is much talk about the Giants pass rush.  They really were dominant in the 2007 Super Bowl but they were able to do it because they did not have to respect the Patriots rushing the ball.  The Pats were able to put up 38 points in that week 16 match up in the Meadowlands without rushing the ball well at all.  Actually rushing it awfully is more like it.  And it was not for lack of effort as they attempted 26 rushes.  You can see the game plan in the Super Bowl changed.  They were able to light up the Giants in that last game so they decided to abandon the run and air it out in the Super Bowl.  The Giants pinned their ears back and put the pressure on Brady with the front 4.  New England threw it 48 times and Brady was sacked 5 times.  In that 2007 season teams in general had a hard time rushing on the Giants.  They were able to hold teams to 3.8 YPR.  Going into the Super Bowl they had lowered that to 3.63 YPR in the playoffs.  The Giant defense was clicking.  This season, in the last 3 games the Giants have given up 5.01 YPR.  That is a number that is extremely high.  For the season the Giants averaged 4.5 YPR.  The Patriots are giving up 4.02 YPR in their last 3 and on the season they averaged 4.6 YPR against in the regular season.  Those are not 2000 Raven numbers but they are a yard per rush better than the Giants in their last 3 games.  Coming into the Super Bowl in 2007 New England was giving up 4.2 YPR about .6 YPR worse than the Giants. 

It looks like the game plan for the Patriots will be to run the ball 25 times or more in this game.  Nobody is really looking at that as the focus is on both QB's.  The Patriots have actually rushed it more than the Giants have this season 438-411.  Neither team looks to run it first then pass but you may see more of a New England running game then normal in this one.  New England will play a bend but don't break style of defense as they have much of the season.  They are giving up a ton of yardage, 6577 during the regular season, but they are right in the middle of the pack giving up 21 points per game.  The Giants are not much better giving up 6022 yards per game and an awful 25 points per game.  My own personal opinion is this game stays under the 54 because of New England attempting to play "ball control" and keep their defense off the field.  I was able to get 55 earlier in the week anticipating the total dropping on this one.  Before doing any analysis I figured I could take a lower over and middle if I did not like the under.  But it looks like I will keep the under 55 play on unless it really drops a lot and then I will take some of my position and look to middle it.

In a game that looks to be very tight we have to try and figure out who will win the turnover battle.  I have a key trend for the post season when it comes to turnovers and more specifically interception differential.  That trend picks at 75% success rate over 110 games.  This season it is 4-1 in the playoffs.  It is 6-1 in the last 20 Super Bowls and it comes up this season.  The trend favors the team with the better interception differential going into the game.  There are a few other factors involved in the trend and in this game the trend comes out pointing toward New England.   

The Giants come in extremely confident and maybe a bit cocky.  This is the first time since his first SB against the Rams where Brady is not the main focus of attention.  The Giants think they have the Patriots number.  If we are correct this will be the payback Brady has waited for since 2007. 

Ah, my last post before the big game. Good Luck to everyone and have a great Super Bowl Sunday. I think we are in for a great game. Happy Hunting.

1 HECK OF A YR,,,THE PAY WINDOW WAS GOOD 4 BOTH OF US....

SEE YA NEXT SEASON,,,MAY ALL UR PICKS BE WINNERS....