@Buffalobob89074 Vegas has won 57 of the last 61 months at their Sportsbooks. They get it right for THEM. Carry on.
You are privy to the financial realities of ALL the Vegas sportsbooks??? Only on covers.
I think at this point the first two games for NO need to be basically forgotten about as far as overall data goes. Matter of fact those first two baited me into betting NO a few times after that and mostly not turning out well. Two things about NO- 1. If they can’t run effectively they’re finished. The ball should stay out of Carrs hand as much as possible. 2. If Carr needs a game winning drive late to win or cover…INT every time. **3 If they even attempt to play zone they will get shredded.
Any thoughts on LAC? Why are projections showing this as a 7ish point game? I get it, LAC offense could be better. But will TEN even find the endzone in this game? Could a shutout be realistic?
I think at this point the first two games for NO need to be basically forgotten about as far as overall data goes. Matter of fact those first two baited me into betting NO a few times after that and mostly not turning out well. Two things about NO- 1. If they can’t run effectively they’re finished. The ball should stay out of Carrs hand as much as possible. 2. If Carr needs a game winning drive late to win or cover…INT every time. **3 If they even attempt to play zone they will get shredded.
Any thoughts on LAC? Why are projections showing this as a 7ish point game? I get it, LAC offense could be better. But will TEN even find the endzone in this game? Could a shutout be realistic?
@Buffalobob89074
You do realize that each casino has to file a monthly report with the Vegas gambling commission, right?
Why don't you read the Las Vegas Review Journal.
Those results are Published monthly.
Try sites like:
Sports handle
Statista
Legal Sports report
Gaming today
Amazing the research you can find.
@Buffalobob89074
You do realize that each casino has to file a monthly report with the Vegas gambling commission, right?
Why don't you read the Las Vegas Review Journal.
Those results are Published monthly.
Try sites like:
Sports handle
Statista
Legal Sports report
Gaming today
Amazing the research you can find.
@TJZags598
That is the published data for public consumption, what is their internal data BUT it is not a stretch to think that the books cleanup most of the time. Nothing too shocking there Tell us something we don't know!
Also, if you owned a sportsbook and you opened Detroit at -3 (which you stated is your number too), you would not need a colon cleanse for the rest of the year. The line is short, even a moron can see that but I digress.
@TJZags598
That is the published data for public consumption, what is their internal data BUT it is not a stretch to think that the books cleanup most of the time. Nothing too shocking there Tell us something we don't know!
Also, if you owned a sportsbook and you opened Detroit at -3 (which you stated is your number too), you would not need a colon cleanse for the rest of the year. The line is short, even a moron can see that but I digress.
@TJZags598
I lived in Vegas for 13 years and the LV Review Journal did share some info on the books' take but they were always vague generalities and skimpy. Casino managers would be able to see real numbers from THEIR sportsbooks only.
Besides, tell us something we don't know about the books cleaning up almost every week, as if we don't know that?
@TJZags598
I lived in Vegas for 13 years and the LV Review Journal did share some info on the books' take but they were always vague generalities and skimpy. Casino managers would be able to see real numbers from THEIR sportsbooks only.
Besides, tell us something we don't know about the books cleaning up almost every week, as if we don't know that?
@TheRunner
Atlanta is -4 now, both numbers are moving. The linesmaker knew if the Detroit line opened at -3, a ton of Lions' money would follow. Am still keen on the Texans, I had the Lions last week.
@TheRunner
Atlanta is -4 now, both numbers are moving. The linesmaker knew if the Detroit line opened at -3, a ton of Lions' money would follow. Am still keen on the Texans, I had the Lions last week.
@Buffalobob89074
Now that we are the halfway point of the season, you need to do your homework. It’s effin tedious, but it can be rewarding. You need to look at the differential of cover/ not cover versus the game time spread.
Example….team A is favored by 4.5. They win by 17. They get a +12.5.
Example….team B is a dog by 8.5. They lose by 3. They get a +5.5.
Example…team C is favored by 4. They lose by 10. They get a -14.
Add up every teams differential to this point. For all their games. Any team that has a huge differential with a “plus” …fade them. Any team that has a huge differential with a “minus”…consider in your plays.
Hope this turns on a lightbulb….
@Buffalobob89074
Now that we are the halfway point of the season, you need to do your homework. It’s effin tedious, but it can be rewarding. You need to look at the differential of cover/ not cover versus the game time spread.
Example….team A is favored by 4.5. They win by 17. They get a +12.5.
Example….team B is a dog by 8.5. They lose by 3. They get a +5.5.
Example…team C is favored by 4. They lose by 10. They get a -14.
Add up every teams differential to this point. For all their games. Any team that has a huge differential with a “plus” …fade them. Any team that has a huge differential with a “minus”…consider in your plays.
Hope this turns on a lightbulb….
@brn2loslive2win
I agree. New Orleans need to run the ball. The big advantage Atlanta should have is their run game over New Orleans. Bijan and Allgeier should control the game.
If you take out the Panthers and cowboy numbers from New Orleans numbers, they are awful.
As for Tennessee v Chargers.
Tennessee will have problems moving the ball on The Chargers. My score projection is 23-12.
( my data isn't update for last weeks game, data provider makes data available tonight)
I do most performance based projections:
Tennessee: 53.4%
Chargers 119.1%
The +19 turnover margin is statistically meaningful.
Thats a significant performance based difference.
@brn2loslive2win
I agree. New Orleans need to run the ball. The big advantage Atlanta should have is their run game over New Orleans. Bijan and Allgeier should control the game.
If you take out the Panthers and cowboy numbers from New Orleans numbers, they are awful.
As for Tennessee v Chargers.
Tennessee will have problems moving the ball on The Chargers. My score projection is 23-12.
( my data isn't update for last weeks game, data provider makes data available tonight)
I do most performance based projections:
Tennessee: 53.4%
Chargers 119.1%
The +19 turnover margin is statistically meaningful.
Thats a significant performance based difference.
@TJZags598
Thanks TJ. Appreciate the insight and much respect for the work you put in. Guys like you are the reason guys like me sift through the garbage on here to keep learning.
@TJZags598
Thanks TJ. Appreciate the insight and much respect for the work you put in. Guys like you are the reason guys like me sift through the garbage on here to keep learning.
@Knollywood100
I disagree here motivation and revenge are two factors I always look for when handicapping and are always added to my bag of tricks when doing so.
@Knollywood100
I disagree here motivation and revenge are two factors I always look for when handicapping and are always added to my bag of tricks when doing so.
@brn2loslive2win
Thanks, I love talking football. Football is an event for me and my family and friends. EVERY WEEKEND. We start at 5 am.
Studying football, and the data, is fun.
I will give you my motivation:
I am in a super pool. 250 people. ( not handicappers). People who love football. You get a budget each year. Winner gets 65% of the pool.
You can make zero wagers, or wager each game. who ever has most "fake" money at end of season, wins.
Wagering to me is secondary. Winning this pool is very prestigious in my circle.
@brn2loslive2win
Thanks, I love talking football. Football is an event for me and my family and friends. EVERY WEEKEND. We start at 5 am.
Studying football, and the data, is fun.
I will give you my motivation:
I am in a super pool. 250 people. ( not handicappers). People who love football. You get a budget each year. Winner gets 65% of the pool.
You can make zero wagers, or wager each game. who ever has most "fake" money at end of season, wins.
Wagering to me is secondary. Winning this pool is very prestigious in my circle.
@takethecannolis
Of course teams go into each game that they play Wanting to win. But, just as a games turning point happens (especially in front of your hometown fans) it motivates that team making the turning point to win even more couple that with a revenge factor from a previous loss or blowout from that same team gives them that drive to win even more exceptionally without a doubt.
This week the team that fits the perfect revenge with motivation scenario
Cincinnati +6 and a sprinkle on the ML
@takethecannolis
Of course teams go into each game that they play Wanting to win. But, just as a games turning point happens (especially in front of your hometown fans) it motivates that team making the turning point to win even more couple that with a revenge factor from a previous loss or blowout from that same team gives them that drive to win even more exceptionally without a doubt.
This week the team that fits the perfect revenge with motivation scenario
Cincinnati +6 and a sprinkle on the ML
@TJZags598
That’s funny. Only because my family has been doing a football pool since I was a child. I come from a large family of football addicts. My father taught me what a point spread was by the time I was 10. By the time I was 12 I had enough money saved to buy in, and I’ve been studying the game and picking games against the spread for my entire life. The prestige that goes along with winning the pool every year is a wonderful family tradition. I sometimes find myself rooting against teams that I have actual wagers on because I want to win that pool so badly. Football truly is one of America’s greatest past times…along with gambling
@TJZags598
That’s funny. Only because my family has been doing a football pool since I was a child. I come from a large family of football addicts. My father taught me what a point spread was by the time I was 10. By the time I was 12 I had enough money saved to buy in, and I’ve been studying the game and picking games against the spread for my entire life. The prestige that goes along with winning the pool every year is a wonderful family tradition. I sometimes find myself rooting against teams that I have actual wagers on because I want to win that pool so badly. Football truly is one of America’s greatest past times…along with gambling
I wouldn’t overthink the Falcons here …. That’s a solid team right now and 4-0 in the division. They go 5-0 and beat up on a depleted Saints team .
I wouldn’t overthink the Falcons here …. That’s a solid team right now and 4-0 in the division. They go 5-0 and beat up on a depleted Saints team .
I didn't open -3
https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/odds/line-history/2161314-0
Aug 28 summer line.
Oct 29 look ahead.
Nov 3 opener for the week.
I didn't open -3
https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/odds/line-history/2161314-0
Aug 28 summer line.
Oct 29 look ahead.
Nov 3 opener for the week.
@ undermysac
Where the betting public pays attention to these lines is during the week of the game. Few people will be betting these games back in August but I get your point, a betting line can have a multi month history.
@ undermysac
Where the betting public pays attention to these lines is during the week of the game. Few people will be betting these games back in August but I get your point, a betting line can have a multi month history.
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