AFL - RD 11

Question

Last Wk: 6-8YTD: 60-41NM -15.5Adel -31.5

Erich777 · Answer

Last Wk: 6-8YTD: 60-41NM -15.5Adel -31.5

Erich777 · Answer

WB/WCE Under 178.5

Erich777 · Answer

WB/WCE Under 178.5NM 1Q -3.5

peekay89 · Answer

Good luck this weekend like your first two.

juniorwaugh · Answer

Hey lads, good reading your recent weekend. Not used to being on the forum so I forgot to look completely!

Tough weekend, I ended up just playing 2 lines going 1-1. Syd -14.5 and Melbourne +6.5.

With regards your UNDER WB/WCE, I reckon it's always good to wait till gameday to play AFL totals most the time. Either due to weather but also because bettors like the NBA etc just want goals scored and the totals generally rise. Especially at Etihad. All punters think about is how quick the Dogs are and how well Josh Kennedy is going too!

I like the Roos -13.5as well, my numbers suggest the Saints at +31.5 though. Maybe some sort of letdown to the Crows and the Saints sneak under the radar and cover the 31.5?

Love the NM 1st Qtr line too!

Erich777 · Answer

Thanks Peekay, hope you find another nugget this round too.

Yeah, Junior, I'm not so sure that's how the totals work. I'd have to go back and look, but I believe they start off higher, and the "smart" money comes in later to drive them down. At least for Unders anyway. The good thing with cash out nowadays is you only lose 5% of your stake.

juniorwaugh · Answer

Like the Roos at the minus for sure, you look at the Tigers against current Top 8 teams versus North Melbourne against Bottom 10 teams this year and you see a distinct advantage for the Roos.

Mix it all together and on average it gives you Richmond scoring 83.4 and North scoring 114.2. A 30.8 differential.

The only outlier that's giving me any worry is the night game factor in Tassie. It's the first night match at the venue for the AFL. At the venue the Roos average 109.5 and give up 84.4 but it's the dew that I'm worried about, keeping the teams closer together for longer.

Anything else you guys like/don't like with the game?

Erich777 · Answer

Good points. Richmond is trending up recently, don't forget, as they've gotten players back. I see it closer to 20 points diff.

Nothing else really interests me in this game.

Any thoughts on Giants/Cats? I think I'm gonna have to play the Giants line. They're just playing better together now.

juniorwaugh · Answer

I&#x27;ve been really interested in finding a ratings system for players as I feel that&#x27;s got a fair bit to with the overall outcome in games and helps me handicap strength in teams each week when they play. In the past I&#x27;ve subscribed to stats sites and made my own, tried Supercoach stats as they are the best fantasy stats to use as they use a very scientific approach to how useful players are on the ground but in the end weighted unevenly to some stats.This year though, Champion Data release it&#x27;s player ratings, the ones that are on afl.com. So I&#x27;ve been tracking the player ratings and keeping records on a spreadsheet. This is the rankings that the teams and coaches use when reviewing etc. An example was Trent Cotchin earlier in the year had 38 touches or around that amount but he ranked 4th or 5th worst on ground. His disposals were cheap ones he got from around the back or short little sideways kicks not gaining any territory. I pit these numbers up against each other when teams meet to see which squad coming into a game is stronger based on these rankings. For example in the Geel/GWS game, the 44 players that played last weekend for them are ranked as follows. When the teams come out on Thursdays I update these numbers to include the them so it&#x27;s the average player rating based on whose selected for the match.So at the moment until Thursday, Geelong is rated 218.3 and the Giants 249.7. Giving the Giants a 31.4 &#x2B;/-. The next step is getting the numbers from what each team allows ranking points wise. The Cats allow 183 and the Giants allow 208.2. I then subtract the Cats 218.3 from 183 (35.3) and the Giants 249.7 from 208.2 (41.5). This gives the Giants a 6.2 points advantage. From that I work out what the average player score is which is 9.8 points from those 4 team totals (218.3&#x2B;183&#x2B;249.7&#x2B;208.2)/88 players.I then divide the 6.2 into 9.8 and that gives me the amount of players extra advantage there Giants have based on the rankings. This = 0.6. So I then decided to find out how much a player is worth on the ground to a game and found that they this number was 11.3 on average over the 1st 10 weeks of the season. So I multiply 0.6 by 11.3 and this gives me 7.2. So this number is what I have the Giants pegged at. Currently the line is -9.5/-10.5 depending on where you bet, so I have the Giants as my lean there as well!A bit long winded but I hope that makes sense guys. I do this for a few different factors and I&#x27;m tracking to see how the progress goes to workout if these rankings are good to use and we can find an advantage against the bookies!

Erich777 · Answer

Wow, that is some complex shit! I&#x27;m just glad it aligns with my leaning m too. :). One of the things I value most in here is the differing approaches.  When those align on a play, gives confidence to bet it or bet it bigger.

juniorwaugh · Answer

Been some interesting line moves since the week started and now the teams are in.

Tomorrow night's clash I really like the North side but I have a theory about great teams coming off a loss, generally the first match after a loss is a bit sluggish as well. Sometimes it's backed up by another loss or at least a sub par performance. That's my only worry here but covering the -13.5 you can get might be low enough.

The Hawks, have blown out to between -33.5 and -36.5 depending on where you shop. From the opening range of -27.5 and -28.5. The Hawks include another debutant with another first year player replacing Will Langford and the oft-injured Matt Spangher.

My numbers suggest that it's worth a look at the Demons line to begin with here.

You could have got on the Blues at -17.5 during Round 10 but are now out at -22.5/-23.5. The Lions have a terrible Docklands record as well, losing by an average of 51 points in the last 5 matches. All the numbers suggest that the -22.5 is the side to begin with here.

The Cats drop 3 in response to back to back losses, whilst the Giants bring in their skipper Phil Davis along with Matt Buntine. Yet the Giants edge further out to 14.5 at some books. Not sure why! Will be interesting putting my above theory to the test though. Where the best sides when they lose, don't generally hit back the very next week. It normally takes two weeks to do so and the Cats are in this 2nd week position this week. Apart from that everything points to the Giants and I like that side!

The Suns/Swans number is just mind boggling for me. It started the week at 60.5 and is down to 36.5 at 2 books I use. Yes the Suns got better with the talent they brought in but it's far from top end talent that's should bring the line back 24.5 points! What do you guys think here?

The final Saturday game is the bottom of the ladder clash between Freo and the Dons. Not really interested in looking at this game just yet. Maybe I'll look closer but it's hard to bet on this with any certainty!

I'll come back tomorrow night with the finals 3 games when the final sides are picked. In the meantime I mentioned I'd post the Home Ground Advantage margins for each team. Here they are below, from each clubs past 20 home games.

Adelaide: +21.8

Brisbane: -22.4

Carlton: -14.3 (Etihad)

Collingwood: +2.6 (MCG)

Essendon: -23 (Etihad)

Fremantle: +5.1

Geelong: +29.3 (Simonds)

Gold Coast: -10.1

GWS: -0.1 (Spotless) but Last 5 games +36.6 and are +36.6 at Manuka

Hawthorn: +31.1 (MCG) and +49.3 (Launceston)

Melbourne: -7.9 (MCG)

North Melbourne: +14 (Docklands) and +25.1 (Hobart)

Port Adelaide: +16.3

Richmond: +6.4 (MCG)

St Kilda: -6.1 (Docklands)

Sydney: +39.4

West Coast: +53.9

Western Bulldogs: +33.9 (Docklands)

juniorwaugh · Answer

Further to my comment on the GC/Syd game, you can get the Suns at &#x2B;45.5 next round v the Tigers and yet the Swans are laying 36.5? I know home and away comes into play here but that&#x27;s still wrong to me, like the Swans line first then the Suns the following week laying the 45.5.

Erich777 · Answer

NM v Richmond -15.5 / 179.5 / Bathurst Tas

First Fri night game in Tassie, with the “obvious” (media-induced) questions around how the night weather will impact the game. I’m not a weatherman, but I’m better at predicting footy outcomes than the journos, haha!! :D Seriously, in a “strange land”, this is a home game for the Roos off of a hard fought loss, and without their ruckman at 100% (if at all), against a Tigers team on enough wins that you, I , we, are trained to expect a let down. Under 3 goals I feel is a good bet; Tiges are capable of winning this, so laying more than that is silly. And frankly, especially given Goldie’s sub-par fitness, I fret the game line. Feel very good about the early one though. Am playing both. If Brent Harvey is still ranked as highly as he is and performing as well as he does at his age, this is Marvel Comics stuff people (aka Lance Armstrong in individual sports). Don’t take that comment personally please! I love Harvey, sincerely. Flat out amazing.

Plays: Roos 1Q -3.5, Roos -15.5

Erich777 · Answer

Hawthorn v. Melbourne -32.5 / 197.5 / MCG

Tough matchup for tipping. First glance with that many points laid by this Hawks team v. this Dees team, take the points, especially with Dees off a loss. Reminder (to myself as well, a bit of foreshadowing), the line opened at -26.5. We can all agree Hawks win this, by 2+ goals. No question. Roos, we find out later, played a more junior side v. Power up north, and has stated he won’t do so this weekend. Round 8 the Dees lost to the Doggies by 33; Doggies are a much better defensive team. Dees are more desperate here, though, and will be more confident. It matters more to them. The average match total for Hawks, excluding the Swans match, is 201. Yes, really.

Plays: Dees +32.5, Over 197.5

Carlton v. Brisbane -23.5 / 190.5 / Ethihad

I’ve loved the Blues since the start of the season. Love the coach, and love the impact he’s had on the org. Made money on backing them, too. Gave quite a bit back last weekend when I took the Kittens, off of a loss. More on the Kittens later… here, the Blues are hobbled, but playing exceptionally. The Lions are so young, and fought a good battle against the Hawks at home last weekend. They get their skipper back. I want to take the Lions line for a number of certain reasons/metrics; but there are enough in favour of the Blues to offset that and make me pass on this one for now. Really does feel like Lions keep this within 3 goals as Blues come out with fool-proof gameplan intended to recuperate and win, not just play their best.

Plays: none for now, lean Lions line, and probably earlier vs. later.

Erich777 · Answer

Geelong v. GWS -13.5 / 185.5 / SimmondsMatch of the round, on paper, in a strong round.  Opened -7.5.  This is a tough one to cap, for a number of reasons.  But the line has grown enough for me to venture in.  In favour of the Cats:  playing at Simmonds for the first time in ages, their home stadium where they play amazingly well.  They&#x2019;ve only clobbered 3 mediocre opps there this year, unfortunately.  But still, it will be an advantage.  Giants haven&#x2019;t fared well away this season, and just came away from a smacking by Giants &#x2013; though note they played well 4th Q (the Giants).  The Cats&#x2019; signature win was at Adelaide v. Crows.  Otherwise, meh wins.  And the team is still figuring out how to play exceptionally, consistently (ie, incorporating Dangerfield, and more).  Giants, on the other hand, winning, big games.  Don&#x2019;t forget that Cameron was out first 4 rounds.  This is a better team.  And has far more confidence than the Kittens right now, I don&#x2019;t care where they play.  A professional team at the top of the ladder to perform how they did for two consecutive weeks spells trainwreck.  Have to play the Giants here.Plays: Giants &#x2B;13.5, Giants ML Gold Coast v. Sydney  &#x2B;37.5 / 129.5 / Metricon StadiumAll value has evaporated too quickly for me on this one &#x2013; was so close to pulling the trigger on the &#x2B;60 at the start of the week.  Lots of back ins for Suns, which has affected the line.  Swans flat out rolling.  Drenching rains previewed, so line has probably overcompensated.  Away, Swannies are 2-3 ATS and 1-4 Over.Plays: Suns &#x2B;37.5, Over 129.5 (hit the line 2x and cancel the Over at midday if weather proves out) Freo v. Essendon  &#x2B;23.5 / 161.5 / Domain StadiumAll sorts of media-instigated headlines around this one.  Don&#x2019;t believe the hype.  Both organizations are well run enough to know that culture and values outweigh gaming the system for the first pick (when the first pick may not be the best).  That tanking approach works in sports where you play hundreds of games or when there is a generational talent on offer in the upcoming draft (think Brent Harvey Jr, hahahha).  And&#x2026; two talent-less teams, the away team no doubt beginning to fatigue with the lack of depth.  Line has come in for a reason, but I don&#x2019;t see value either side.  So hard to lay almost 4 goals with Freo; but I feel very confident they win by 3&#x2B;.  I think the over hits as well, barring weird weather.No Plays and No Watch

Erich777 · Answer

Adding:Giants 1Q &#x2B;3.5Giants 1H &#x2B;6.5

brandonbix · Answer

hope you watched the GWS game, what a brilliant  for you

juniorwaugh · Answer

HAHA! The old backdoor cover from the Giants! You beauty! Thanks Lachie Whitfield!

Erich777 · Answer

I did watch it, nail biter at the end, but 3 wins on that puppy! :)

Erich777 · Answer

Sunday&#x27;s adds:Pies -0.5 1QDogs -4.5Crows -8.5 1QLet&#x27;s make some $$! :)

Erich777 · Answer

Well, Pies line moved in the few mins between posting and placing, soPies &#x2B;0.5 1Q

juniorwaugh · Answer

What was it that you saw for the Pies to have value in the Pies 1st Qtr Erich? Was it based on line movement? Love the two other plays too!

Erich777 · Answer

It was a mix of a few things:- Pies have won the 1Q past two rounds at G against better opponents (so a play on the game planning and familiarity with the Ground)- Anti Port play coming off a nice win, and haven&#x27;t won the past few 1QsPies have too many key injuries to win this game, but the above two were enough to convince me to make a play.  Didn&#x27;t love it, so should have passed with the late line movement (sharps weighing in)

Erich777 · Answer

Final play: WB 1H -1.5 TABDogs are 4-2 ATS 1H at Ethihad this season. Aside the game against Port, Eagles are awful 1H away.V Swans and Kittens beat them by 20&#x2B; each... Doggies are switched on IMO and clear 1H by DDs.

Erich777 · Answer

W&#x9;NM -15.5W&#x9;NM 1Q -3.5W&#x9;Adel -31.5W&#x9;WB/WCE U 178.5W&#x9;Melb &#x2B;32.5L&#x9;Haw/Melb O 197.5W&#x9;GWS 1Q &#x2B;3.5W&#x9;GWS 1H &#x2B;6.5W&#x9;GWS &#x2B;13.5L&#x9;GWS MLL&#x9;GC &#x2B;37.5L&#x9;GC/Syd O 129.5L&#x9;Coll 1Q &#x2B;0.5W&#x9;WB 1H -1.5W&#x9;WB -4.5W&#x9;Adel 1Q -8.511-5 on the round.  :)

AFL - RD 11

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