- Pies have won the 1Q past two rounds at G against better opponents (so a play on the game planning and familiarity with the Ground) - Anti Port play coming off a nice win, and haven't won the past few 1Qs
Pies have too many key injuries to win this game, but the above two were enough to convince me to make a play. Didn't love it, so should have passed with the late line movement (sharps weighing in)
Yep fair enough, when you say the sharps moving in how do you know that? Aside from being late public money?
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Quote Originally Posted by Erich777:
It was a mix of a few things:
- Pies have won the 1Q past two rounds at G against better opponents (so a play on the game planning and familiarity with the Ground) - Anti Port play coming off a nice win, and haven't won the past few 1Qs
Pies have too many key injuries to win this game, but the above two were enough to convince me to make a play. Didn't love it, so should have passed with the late line movement (sharps weighing in)
Yep fair enough, when you say the sharps moving in how do you know that? Aside from being late public money?
There is a podcast in the us during the NFL season with a bookie. Most of the public bets early. Sharps will only if the opening line is off. So the sharps wait to see if they get too frothy, and when they do $ comes in to take advantage. It would take a ton of public bets at the last minute to move a line (given the small transaction value comparatively). A few (or more) 5 digit bets will move the line.
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There is a podcast in the us during the NFL season with a bookie. Most of the public bets early. Sharps will only if the opening line is off. So the sharps wait to see if they get too frothy, and when they do $ comes in to take advantage. It would take a ton of public bets at the last minute to move a line (given the small transaction value comparatively). A few (or more) 5 digit bets will move the line.
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