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June Cycling: Dauphine Libere, Tour of Switzerland and Nationals

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Prospect
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Posted: #26

Tour de Suisse prologue : Fabian Cancellera win will but I don't have any way to place a bet @ 1.90 on this.

So I picked an H2H

Cancellera over Hushovd by 3 seconds @ 1.481 ( 7.7 units )

 
Prospect
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Posted: #27
Adding Chavanel over Casar @ 1.552 ( 7.7 units )
 
Therefore I'm playing the best time trialist in the world ( Cancellera ) and the best French one. Casar might be good but Chavanel always has a chance to finish top 5.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #28

After reflection and analysis, I'll place 4 units for Stage 7.

Valverde is at the top of his game. He's the best to my perspective on uphill sprint finish.  With his yellow jersey, he will give everything he has to keep it and beat Contador.

Valverde over Contador @ 2.56 ( 2 units )

Gesink is a strong rider, he can follow with the best.  Evans couldn't follow the 1st time, he won't tomorrow.

Gesink over Evans @ 2.35 ( 1.8 units )

 

 

 
Captain
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Posted: #29
I've been waiting for this!
 
Tour of Switzerland
 
Kloden or Kreuziger will take it. I can always hedge.
 
10 units Kreuziger @ $4 - He is the best young rider out there. He smokes Andy Schleck as the next big thing. This kid is a gun. His form is awesome. His climbing is sensational and his time trialing is solid. Enough said!
 
Captain
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Posted: #30
Prologue
 
1 unit Martin @ $5 - fade cancellara at all costs.
 
Captain
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Posted: #31

Overall head to heads

6 units Kloden over A Schleck @ $1.65
4 units Gerdemann over Cunego @ $1.65

Good luck!

 
Captain
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Posted: #32
Shits and giggles in the Dauphine Queen stage.
.6 units Evans @ $10
.4 units Nibali @ $26
Evans is determined to win the Dauphine. He shows his colours on the last climb today. He doesn't attack today, he's a scumbag.
 
Captain
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Posted: #33

 Can't see why I can't double up on my units tonight.

Martin top 3 @ $2.20 - 6 units

Good luck!

 
Prospect
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Posted: #34
I like your call on Martin.  If Cancellara fails to win, he won't probably take it.  A top 3 @ 2.20 is great money.
 
I guess you pick your Race Matchups on Pinnacle, but why didn't you try Gerdemann  over Monfort at the same price instead of Cunego.
 
I also like your play Kloden over Shleck. The kid is in preparation for his possible win in France.  He won't push as hard as you could expect.
 
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Posted: #35
Didn't think of Gerds over Monfort.
 
Anyway, Martin's 2 wins this year have come in time trials. An 8km one and a 30km one.
 
He comes top 3 today - it's almost definate providing he doesn't crash.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #36
Bring the cash home.
 
Wow what a race.  I had Moncoutié in mind in the last 20 km. He did it.
 
With 10 km to go, my four men were all together.  Gesink attacked and escaped about 20 seconds in front.  The 3 others were riding together always answering to Evan's attacks.  By the end, Gesink finished with Fulgsang a few seconds in front of Gesink.  Valverde tried an attack but Evans finished a few meters in front.  Contador couldn't answer
 

Valverde over Contador @ 2.56 ( 2 units )

Gesink over Evans @ 2.35 ( 1.8 units )

Today's stage : 2-0 +5.55 units

Overall : 8-1 +16.75 units

Tour de Suisse results still to come.

 

 

 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #37
Well... Martin is out of the top 3 with an outstanding race by Kloden reducing Hincapie best time by about 2 seconds.

But wait, the best timetrialist on earth just destroyed Kloden's time by 22 seconds.  It's looking like an easy 10-15 seconds win maybe more. A few riders to come.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #38

The Tour de Suisse results are out :

Cancellara finished 1st +3.7 units ( Hushovd 38 seconds back )

Chavanel finished 21st +4.3 units ( Casar 5 seconds back )

After Stage 1 : 2-0 +8 units

 

 

 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #39
Amazing

      Overall : 10-1 + 24.75 units


I know this is after the fact but Bolar, why was the fade on Cancellara? Was it the odds?

     
 
Prospect
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Posted: #40
No matchups interesting in the last stage at the Dauphine.  Valverde has won it for the 2nd year in row. The only thing I can see is that Evans will finish in front of Valverde but never by enough to grab the yellow jersey.
 
Well I might place Evans over Valverde @ 1.667 probably 5 units if I still feel it by the end of the night.
 
Nothing interesting neither in Switzerland, day off tomorrow.
 
I made up my mind....
 
Evans over Valverde @ 1.714 (2.8 units)
 
Captain
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Posted: #41

Because Cancellara has struggled all year with injury. It was hard to get a gauge on what he was going to do. He showed, however, he's back.

TDF prologue, pound the living shit out of him.

 
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Posted: #42
.5 Astarloza $23
.5 De la Fuente $34
.5 Garate $41
 
Good luck!
 
Also adding
 
5 units Kreuziger overall @ $2.80
 
Captain
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Posted: #43

Switerland stage 2.

1 unit Kreuziger to win @ $16

3 units Kreuziger to place @ $4.20

Good luck!

 
Captain
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Posted: #44
Added in-play. .5 Hansen @ $20 and .5 Pereiro @ $20
 
Prospect
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Posted: #45
I think you should focus on H2H where you cashed in most of the time.  I know the feel you can have winning a bet @ 20 and over but it will only happen once out of 20 times which makes it low value.
 
You lost 5 units today and 7 more yesterday.
 
I've no doubt you know the Tour, take advantage of the odds makers to cash in on H2H.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:

I think you should focus on H2H where you cashed in most of the time.  I know the feel you can have winning a bet @ 20 and over but it will only happen once out of 20 times which makes it low value.
 
You lost 5 units today and 7 more yesterday.
 
I've no doubt you know the Tour, take advantage of the odds makers to cash in on H2H.


Not smooth . I already covered this previously so I think the point got through. To be fair, another dog cashed  today with Valverde winning the Dauphine as Evans finished 7 spots behind him in the stage. So, yes, there is value in betting the H2H but just like any other sport, people who can consistently sniff out the winning underdog plays will be the most successful.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #47
Today's stage was a perfect example of a random winner.  There were no way Vegas could put up proper odds for the winner. Everyone who knows cycling knew that none of the top 10 favorites would have taken today's stage.
 
It was the last stage where Evans had no chance to take the overall lead, therefore, it's a chance for a bunch of ordinary cyclists to fight for the win.  The favorite have done their job and they are taking it easy.
 
Evans failed to finish in front of Valverde.  Remember not the bet on him in France, he doesn't know how to attack.
 
Dauphine is over : 8-2 +14 units
 
Time to focus on Switzerland but there's nothing too interesting until stage 5. I'll stay back
 
 
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #48
Stage 4 is pretty hard to judge.  Will the break make it to the end ? There's a big HC climb around km 50 and a categorie 2 about 50 km from the line.  Can the Rabobank and Columbia teams close the gap and bring their sprinters to the line ?
 
I won't take any chance but if there's a mass sprint here are the plays :
 
Cavendish over Freire @ 1.625 ( was @ 1.80 2 hours ago )
 
Hushovd over Freire @ 2.69
 
That's all about it, enjoy the race, last day in yellow for Cancellara.
 
Captain
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Posted: #49

Stage 4 in Dauphine

Too much for the sprinters to handle. An outside category and another climb less than 50km from the end.

Breakaway

.3 units Voeckler @ $81
.3 units Albasini @ $81
.3 units Monfort @ $81
.2 units Burghardt @ $101
.2 units Gadret @ $121
.3 units Martin @ $81

Good luck!

 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #50
I would have been 1-1 without a sprint mass.
 
I hope to see your plays for tomorrow's stage.
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