CD Newsletter: Playoffs??? Edition

Lombardi's rants are excellent 

Long time lurker....  Great job in relative obscurity here guys.

Initial thoughts on Dallas vs SF...

I feel like SF is seriously overrated at this point on the betting markets.  And I am dying to bet against Purdy against a team that can stop the SF run and make him throw.

Unfortunately - I feel like Dallas is very similar.  Stop their run, make Dak pass, and mistakes will follow.

So I still need to run a bunch of numbers midweek - but my gut is that mistakes will dictate the outcome - and that is usually the hardest thing to predict (where they happen, when etc).   Maybe a prop on over interceptions....  Lol

Carry on - great job in here once again!

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/01/17/by-firing-joe-lombardi-chargers-apparently-will-stay-the-course-with-brandon-staley/amp/

@vanzack

  to the Bat Cave 

cannot wait to fade purdy this weekend. been a long time i've been plotting my revenge since the cheez it bowl

Another thought here. I posted that Chris Andrews said that the Bills spread had the highest handle this past weekend, and bettors were disappointed by the Bills.

Now they don't want any part of them, and betting on a Bengals team that pretty much got their "ass beat" by the Ravens, by the stats at least. With the difference being a 98 fumble return td.

Food for thought 

Let the thread ride!

Divisional Playoffs:

Saturday 1/21

4:30 Eastern on NBC

Jacksonville @ Kansas City -8.5   O/U 52.5

8:15 Eastern on Fox

NY Giants @ Philadelphia -7.5  O/U  48.5

Sunday 1/22

3:00 Eastern on CBS

Cincinnati @ Buffalo -4.5  O/U  48.5

6:30 Eastern on Fox

Dallas @ San Francisco -4  O/U 46.5

4 missed xp's in a row, i still can't wrap my head around that. 

Jags @ Chiefs:  Rematch of 11/13 game where Chiefs won 27-17.  Lawrence was sacked 5 times, Pacheco ran strong for 5.1ypc while Mahomes threw 4 TD's to 4 different players.  Chiefs led 20-7 at half and 27-10 going into 4th.  Mahomes is 4-0 in the Divisional Round winning by 18,20,5 & 6.  

NYG @ Philly:  Philly won both regular season matchups, although Dimes and Barkley did not play in Week 17.  Hurts was sacked 7 total times in the 2 games.  Hurts was sacked at least 1 time in his 15 starts and multiple times in 12 of those.  From what I'm reading, he is still not 100%.  OT Lane Johnson says that he's going to play despite torn abducter.  Giants did everything we thought they would against the Vikings.  Don't forget that gem ODB gave us about Boston Scott scoring a TD in every game he's played against NYG.  

Cincy @ Buffalo:  The rematch we all wanted (except for Shrimp & Biscuit).  Bengals were doing well before the Hamlin incident.  Burrow's first official game against Buffalo.  Cincy OLinemen dropping like trainwrecks dates after a Roofie Colada.  Cappa may be the most likely to come back, Jonah Williams rumored to have dislocated knee cap.  Injury report will be released tomorrow.  Buffalo gotta worry about those turnovers, that was the Bengals calling card during the SB run last year and Josh Allen keeps giving them up.  Early forecast is cloudy with light snow and 10-15mph winds.  I expect a more explosive Cincy team here.  Styles make fights and this is much different than the Baltimore matchup.  

Dallas @ SF:  First Playoff game that isn't a rematch of a 2022 regular season game.  Is a rematch of that crazy game last year in Jerry World.  Cowboys faced little resistance against a 1-dimensional Bucs team.  Niners had a little wake up call in 1H then dominated the 2H.  Kearse and Parsons gave positive updates from their injuries, not so much for OL Jason Peters.  Dak looked solid carving up Bucs soft D and was great using his legs.  Purdy on his biggest stage yet, I think play-calling will protect him, lots of short quick passes to Deebo, Kittle and McCaffrey.  

Sunday lining up to be awesome for watching. 

Right now I'm intrigued by the Giants.  I think having the #1 seed is a disadvantage playing against teams coming in off a Playoff game after resting the final week of regular season.  I can't deny that Hurts is a winner but I'm not picking him to go out and win me a game with a 2 minute drive.  3rd game factor also. 

Chiefs should take care of business as Jags have been fighting for their lives for 2 straight weeks now.

Man, I like both Bengals and Bills but my futures are with Cincy.  I'll hedge some for sure, but them winning would be great for my Futures.  Will be fun

I still don't buy Dallas, we all know exactly how they can look great then crap the bed.  Purdy still the biggest question mark left in the Playoffs.  Honestly just hope whoever wins this game will take out Philly (if they win).  

Am I the only one considering the Getty's ? I know Chiefs and Mahomes at home and all the other BS involved that has swirled around for years but kinda think Jax has a little swagger . Pederson has them actually believing in themselves 

2 odd but possibly useful tidbits.

Monday night was the first time in 7 games that the Cowboys defense drew a holding penalty by the opponent's offensive line. That's just so weird but it's absolutely true. 

Jacksonville won their final 5 home games and overcame a deficit of at least 9 points in all of them. However since losing at Detroit in early December they have also won 3 straight road games and had a lead of 6 more at halftime in all of them. Cardiac kids at home, strong as bull on road. They are on the road against a team which doesn't cover spreads and committed 4 turnovers in their first meeting.

KC offense at home 1H 12.4 PPG. JAX offense 1H on road 12.4 PPG. That's the space oddity, Major Tom. 

Something useful from the Mains regarding the Referee assignments

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/the-refs-for-the-divisional-games-103708428

Kind of like when plus size models pose in bikinis, and thousands of people tell them how beautiful and strong they are?

In all seriousness, the Jags are good enough to cover a spread north of a td against anyone imo.

Personally, I really want to know the specifics of what kind of defense Spagnuolo runs. I know he blitzes a lot, but is that with man coverage or zone behind it? That breakdown iconn gave us of Trevor's weaknesses vs zone and "disguise" was top notch.

I'd be shocked if KC doesn't pick up the difference on tape between the 1H and 2H against the Chargers.

Now I'm thinking how ironic it is that they fired the OC today, but Staley(defensive guru) still has a job.

@undermysac

I like the teams that have no pressure on them . As much as I hate to admit this it looks like Rocky Dennis is flourishing under Pederson 

Since I referred to this thread as the "Bat Cave" earlier, I couldn't help picturing you as the Ridler, or that terrible Joker who's mustache could not be contained by make up.

And, just saying cheez it bowl is still fuckin weird to me

@undermysac

 Rumor has it that the GM Telesco met with some team leaders including Herbert before meeting with the coaches. The players were 100% behind Staley but not so much the offensive staff. Not just game strategy but communication in practice as well. 

Love me some Bowie.

@michaelmann

Knowing ODB, I envision him taking a cut out picture of Brock Purdy to the gym and just ripping weights while staring angrily at it

What about having Williams on the turf in a nothing game?

@michaelmann

 Always a treat to discover your next username. I suggest skypirate, onemanarmy, carpetmower, drzhivago, rooffiddler for the future. 

Caan was fantastic in the TV series Las Vegas (2003-2008). One of those oddball cable channels still shows marathons once in a while. Binge watch for me.

Just finished reading Heat 2.  Heat makes it to my top (whatever number) list.

E! had a full series marathon over the holidays, it was great.  Loved that show.  Shame it didn't get a proper ending.