CD Newsletter Week 10

somebody is hitting that Colts line.......down to +4.5 at my book    

Jeff has a lot of relatives....

Fucking absurd...

Also this move on the Texans is pissing me off as well.

So Houston is down to +4.5(-115), looking to be headed for 4.

The look ahead for Detroit @ NYG is 4. Look over your PR's n such and let that sink in. Keep in mind that the gmen are off bye this week.

The Texans and Lions are both dome teams. The Lions are at least 8 slots better than the Texans.

Who the fuck is betting on the Texans this week? Either way, I'm sticking with my position on the Giants this week, just wish I had a better # than 6.

It's starting to get tricky predicting line moves, as anyone with $ can move lines these days.

NFL 45-33-4 (+21.03)

Giants -6(-110) *2.20/2.00

Browns +4(-105) *1.05/1.00

Commanders +11(-110) *1.50/1.36

Seahawks +2.5(+100) *1.00

Steelers ML(+120) *1.00/1.20

Lions@Bears 1H O23.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

Lions 1H +2(-110) *.75/.68

Lions 1H ML(+130) *.25/.33

This will be hard for me to root for on Sunday as I'm a Bears fan, but I just can't ignore the #'s.

You guys heard me point out(many times) on how awful the Bears D line is. And most of you know how good the Lions O line is. It's an utterly massive mismatch. 

Here's some #'s pointing to the Lions and the over in the 1H. All epa stats are for the 1H, last 3 games.

Lions offensive epa: 0.156(#8)

Bears offensive epa: 0.182(#6)

Lions drop back epa: #2

Bears drop back epa: #7

Lions defensive epa: -0.31(#12)

Bears defensive epa: 0.373(#32)

Lions defensive drop back epa: 0.066(#17)

Bears defensive drop back epa: 0.613(#32)

Prop players(BigD) take a look at some Jared Goff props, I feel you can get some good #'s as who the hell on earth will be itching to go get them some Goff $? Especially after a 15 pt effort vs GB last week.

@undermysac

will be looking at those when they are released and already had to pick him up in fantasy with Burrow on bye   

Kentucky's Mayor was determined by a coin flip.

Fuckin ay right it was

really

NFL 45-33-4 (+21.03)

Giants -6(-110) *2.20/2.00

Browns +4(-105) *1.05/1.00

Commanders +11(-110) *1.50/1.36

Seahawks +2.5(+100) *1.00

Steelers ML(+120) *1.00/1.20

Lions@Bears 1H O23.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

Lions 1H +2(-110) *.75/.68

Lions 1H ML(+130) *.25/.33

Bills -3(-110) *2.20/2.00

Give me Case Keenum in the ultimate rally spot of the year. The Vikings luck runs out this Sunday as they will face an actual football team.

So the Bills lost a game otr last week, vs a divisional opponent. Oh no the wheels have fallen off, it's panic time, the Bills won't make the playoffs.

The Jets are #8 in overall dvoa with the 3rd hardest schedule. The Vikings are 18th overall dvoa with the 24th schedule. 

It's still not a guarantee that Josh Allen doesn't play. 

Kirk Cousins will not be wearing gold chains and dancing like a dope on this plane ride home.

Watched a little informative video about the Packers, and how they have been running more cover 3 on defense recently. This was followed by video evidence of Dak Prescott destroying cover 3 this year.

At this point of handicapping this game, it comes down to if and how bad do the Cowboys mess this up on their own to lose?

That's a question that there's no answer for. Could the cold be an issue?

*sidenote, I heard and read a little about Aaron Rodgers crazy girlfriend who's name is Blu? I just did further research, and found out that her name is in fact Blu of the Earth...in her pics she's fit, pretty face, and fake boobs, I'm guessing not of the Earth. She's bat shit crazy, this combination with good looks has to equal an amazing lay. Then add mushrooms or whatever drugs they did/are doing, would you give a fuck about football if you were Rodgers?

@undermysac

 They draft a back up qb while he was still in prime, fail to get him outside targets then trade the best one he had.  Dude may harbor less than warm feelings towards those in charge, lord knows he was down right frosty with his last coach. Me thinks he probably regrets signing last deal.

@undermysac

 Just looked a little into that chick, she is a "wholistic healer" ayy lmao A-a-ron went off the deep end with this one from Olivia Munn, Danica Patrick and Shailene Woodley to Blu of the Earth . I don't know what his QB rating is this season, but he has had some poor performances, I still chuckle at that highlight of him hitting that guy in the helmet, in Detroit, boom headshot!

The Packers fucked up big time, handing him that contract, he is no Brady, longevity wise...

its crazy how much love the Texans, Packers, Colts and Vikings are getting 

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills  

LOL

Texans, Packers and Colts are supposed "sharp" bets. I don't know who they are, and they're not always right. The Packer play I get, it's an auto bet for pro's, and these kind of bets are blind to stats and recent form.

I don't get the Texans $, at all.

As for the Colts Jesus Christ that's such a hard bet. I mean you can't hang your hat on anything with the coaching change. All trends and hooplah go out the door. This game is one sneeze away from being a complete dumpster fire for the Colts.

The Vikings $ has to be a pure public steam roll, maybe some sharp stuff too, who knows. I love that McDermott is being hush hush. He's not giving the opponent a qb to prepare for, and both dudes change the complexion of that gameplan. NO ONE has seen the Bills offense without Josh Allen for quite some time. If they prepare for Keenum with a pre season type of gameplan, they could be easily surprised by a few unforseen play calls.

Adding a 5 team parlay for $50 that I'm completely ready to lose:

NYG(-215), BUF(-165), LAV(-210), DAL(-200), SF(-300)

Odds (+595) *.50/2.97

If this sucker is alive for SNF, I'll look to middle with LAC ats. +7.5 would be nice.

Thinking that should be it. Pushed away a ton of leans. Need to rest my eyeballs and brain till tomorrow. 

Recently read some sharps talking up Goff and the Lions offense against Chitown on Sunday...Wait...just being told that was Sac and BigD. 

Seriously guys, I'm firing from both decks and going both Goff and St. Brown over yardage props. ASTB is interesting in that his AYPG is 57 but the O/U is 74 this week. He's the #1 buy low candidate for fantasy WRs this week. Swift is also supposed to be near full health but I still see him giving way to Jamaal too often to deal with his total yardage props. 

JAX/KC Over 51 even though cold but no wind and typical football weather for November.  Cyrax special. 

Also the Buccaneers are going to kill the Seadorks tomorrow morning. The upside down illusion ends. 

NFL 45-33-4 (+21.03)

Giants -6(-110) *2.20/2.00

Browns +4(-105) *1.05/1.00

Commanders +11(-110) *1.50/1.36

Seahawks +2.5(+100) *1.00

Steelers ML(+120) *1.00/1.20

Lions@Bears 1H O23.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

Lions 1H +2(-110) *.75/.68

Lions 1H ML(+130) *.25/.33

Bills -3(-110) *2.20/2.00

Lions 1H TT O10.5(+115) *1.00/1.15

Bears #1 corner Jaylon Johnson questionable, limited thur/fri. Bears starting DE Muhammed OUT. Bears starting Nickel Vildor OUT. Getting thin...

looking more and more like Allen will play......Bills still sit at -3    

just got hit to -5.5 as I was clicking...........FML 

Not to rub salt in the wound but why the heck wouldn't you buy at -3? The Vikings are still likely to start Vikinging regardless of Buffalo's QB. Kid Cousine still has a real defense to contend with and McDermott is a sharp defensive coach. Total has jumped from 42 to 44 and I'm ready to hit the under at 45.5 or better if it shows up. This won't be a shootout.

Off at 2 books, -6.5 at DK

I hate to sound cocky, but I read this one better than hooked on phonics

@Getty3

 I was.  Then the news came out.  Horrible timing on my part.  

If it makes you feel any better I played it at -3.5 because I thought that would be my best opportunity. Maybe I get stung by the hook, maybe I don't, maybe it doesn't matter if Minnesota wins. We shall see.

Please don't say things like this 

What do you guys think is the Vikings best win this year?

Is it 24-16 win at home to the Dolphins, where Skylar Hamilton got hurt and a banged up Bridgewater had to finish?

Was it...week 1's 23-7 home win vs the Packers? That certainly isn't aging well.

Was it the 28-25 miracle in England vs the Saints?

The only game that closely resembles tomorrow's game in Orchard Park, was when the Vikings had to go to Philly. 

Can your team put up at least 3 TD's against the Chief?