CD Newsletter week 17

My apologies for the late posting on the fabled Newsletter.

I will refrain from discussing weather issues. Needless to say, this week will be nothing like this past week.

Dal -10.5 @ Ten 41.5

Why are they still playing on Thursdays this late in the season? As the line suggests, this game means nothing to the Titans, who have the Getty's on deck for a playoff spot. Tenn expected to rest the King. The Boys also have nothing to play for, as they are most likely locked into the 5 seed. I can not recommend a play on Dallas at this line. It's inflated.

Car @ TB -3, 40.5

My how the mighty have fallen. Given the significance of this game, it is hard to believe the Bucs only laying 3 at home. I have to lean the Brady's in this spot simply because TB12 has a knack for finding ways to win late. Both teams stink.

Cle @ Wash -1.5, 40.5

The Newsletters favorite team travels to Biden City to take on the AFKAR (artists formerly known as Redskins). AFKAR controls their playoff destiny. If they win their last 2 they are in. So why are they only favored by 1.5 when playing at home vs a team who is playing out the string? It's a good time to point out that betting on teams who need to win vs teams with nothing to play for is a money losing proposition.

NO @ Phi -6.5, 43.5

Saints have been eliminated, while the Eagles only need to win one of their final 2 games to secure the 1 seed. Obviously Hurts is out (don't be surprised if he is not ready until later in the playoffs) but they also suffered a couple of injuries in the secondary, and lost stud RT Lane for at least a few weeks. Eagles are hobbled, not sure NO has the horses to take advantage.

ARI @ Atl -3.5, 41.5

Anyone who bets this game please call 1-800-I Need Help ... immediately.

Getty's -4.5 @ Hou 43.5

Similar to the Tenn situation, this game is meaningless for Jax. Next week is the pre-playoff playoff game. Texans are suddenly playing fiesty ball. Who will rest for Jax? Who won't play the entire game? Most importantly, which one of you knuckleheads will bet against Houstons recent dominance over Jax? Texans on a 9 game win streak, and 28-13 all time.

Chi @ Det -5.5, 52.5

Sac's playing for the first overall pick. As of today the Lions have a 20% chance of making the playoffs. If they win their final 2 games their chances jump to 73% (too many scenarios to list them all) I have been saying this for years ... betting on teams who need to win when they are playing against teams who have nothing to play for is a losing system. I will join the rest of America and root for Det to get in the playoffs. They are a fun team, their HC is fun, and God knows that fan base has suffered long enough

Mia @ NE -3, 41.5

If the season ended today Mia would be in the playoffs, but there are still 2 games to play and Teddy B will be at the helm for the once high flying Phins. I have to seriously doubt Tua plays again this year. The kid is a class act and easy to root for, but he is now getting concussed without taking significant hits. Pats control their own destiny, but need a win this week and again in Buff next week. I have no feel for this game at all

Den @ KC -13.5, 44.5

Yesterday former Bronco Shannon Sharpe said that the players were fed up with Russ and his me-first attitude. The smoke we seen during Wilsons term in Seattle has turned into an inferno in Denver. What coach would want that job? KC is KC. They should waltz to the AFC Championship game vs the Bills. Obly question remaining is who will host the game.

Indy @ NYG 5.5, 38.5

This line has been steadily bet up all week, from 3.5 to 4.5, and now 5.5. Who in their right mind would bet the Colts here? This is basically a home playoff game for the G-Men and Colts are just playing out the string, possibly with a lame duck coach at the controls. Worth repeating again ... betting on teams who need to win against teams with nothing to play for is a losing system ... especially when the line seems to be begging for money on the team with a purpose.

NYJ -1.5 @ Sea 42.5

Jets opened as a short dog, then White was announced as the starting QB and Jets flipped to a short Fav. Jets get in playoffs by winning their last 2, and Mia losing 1 of their last 2. Seahawks, losers of 3 straight, need to win their last 2 and also some help from other teams. Tea leaves are suggesting NY as the right side here.

SF -6 @ LV 44.5

Most prognosticators have anointed the 9ers as the team to beat. Hard to argue with them. They are the only NFL team without an obvious weakness. Raiders have a mathematical chance to make the playoffs, but no one should confuse mathematical with realistic.

Minn @ GB -3, 48.5

Somehow the DJBrows are alive for the #1 seed in the NFC. If you look up the word 'farce' in the dictionary you will see a description of the 2022 Vikings. They travel to the frozen tundra to battle the Packers. Lean to team Ayahuasca.

Rams @ Chargers -6.5, 40.5

Is anyone buying Bakers performance from last week? I'm not, he still sucks. Chargers are the most difficult team for me to cap. Each time I watch one of their games I find myself thinking "how is this possible" numerous times. That thought applies to the good as well as the bad. I am thrilled that Herbert finally gets to play in a playoff game. Equally excited to watch their HC's decisions in that game.

Pitt @ Balt -3, 36

Steelers still alive, but have as much a realistic chance of making the playoffs as Cy does of betting an Under. The Shrimp will play another game without everyone's favorite punt returner. Much is being made of how good their D is, but it is worth mentioning that 60% of how good or bad any team looks is dictated by the other teams talent level. Here's the offenses the Shrimp have played in the last 9 games: Atl, Cle, Pitt, Den, Jax (scored 28 points), Car, NO, TB, Cle. They had the benefIt of playing the entire NFC South, and their own division. With the exception of Cinci, it is a collection of the worst offenses in the NFL.

Buff -1.5 @ Cinci 49.5

Bills playing for the 1 seed. Bengals most likely locked into the 2 or 3 seed. This is the best match-up of the week. Cinci been playing well. Burrow is legit, and their D is quietly solid. Lean the team from Ohio.

Nicely done

Saints still alive for division ...barely

Tough card this week. Teddy starting for Miami, be interesting to see the WR props in that game (check weather)

Raiders have benched Carr and will start Jarrett Stidham at QB.

Guessing Raiders have decided to move on from Carr after this season.

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Kinda like the over in the i need help game...seems tad low...

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Yup.  It is happening.  If Carr is on the roster 3 days after the SuperBowl, then his whole contract is guaranteed.  If they cut him, its only like a 6 million cap hit if I am reading things right.

I gotta say, I have defended him for years, and at one point I really thought he was one of the most underrated players in the league, but lately, he has lost something.  His once really reliable accuracy has disappeared, I think he even leads the league in interceptions.  The INT he threw at the end of the Steeler game was the last straw for me.  The miss radius on that throw was HUGE from the top all the way to the right and even possibly underthrowing him....and where did he throw it????  The only place you can't miss that throw to.....back left........I was dumbfounded watching that play.  That was it for me.  Almost anyone that can throw a football hard can make that throw, because there was so much forgiveness to it, but Carr pooped his diaper on live TV.  At some point enough is enough. 

Sure, I like the guy, he is a nice guy, yeah, it is great that he wants to be a Raider blah blah blah......but I have had it and hope we move on from him.  

10 teams are .500 or better vs. opponents with a winning record. The only one of the 10 who is below .500 is ... Jacksonville (7-8) at 3-3. 

The Bears have had a lead in 14 games this year and are 3-11 in those games.

Only 3 teams have been losing at some point in every game this year. The Cardinals, Texans, and ... Bears.

The 2 defenses which have allowed the most TDs to opposing drives are the Lions and Bears. They're playing this week and have the highest total on the board. Cyrax Over alert 

New England has punted on 51% of their offensive possessions this year, worst in the league. Their red zone TD efficiency of 38% is also last.

Only KC has more explosive plays of 30+ yards than the 49ers. The San Fran offense only punts on 3 and outs at a 13% clip, lowest in the league. Their defense forces the most 3 and outs as well at 40%. The fact that Iowa State castoff Brock Purdy fits so easily into this offense is evidence that the 49ers may indeed be the most balanced team in the league. Personally I'm not on the 49ers bandwagon to the Super Bowl. They'll lose a playoff game to a team that can stop the run and make some big plays on offense (Dallas? Philly? Tampa?)

Nice job men 

On the Saints, lean Titans and Seahags

If you were to take the Broncos and Buccaneers as favs this year, you'd be 4-15-1 ats

Terrell Owens headed to the Boys....he's 49...

Is Bob Hayes alive or Lance Rentzel.....

I like the Titans on Thursday. It'll be a defensive struggle. One of those games where you just take the generous points with the better coach and forget about it. Win or lose its the smart, safe play. 

@Hugh_Jorgan

 I completely agree about Baker. The Broncos COMPLETELY gave up, they hate Russ, and the coach got fired because of it.

I feel like a healthy Chargers team should start to look like the team everyone thought they could be before the season began. 

I personally think that they need another RB, a bell cow type. Eckler should be a 3rd down type scat back.

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Thank you for your awesome effort as the editor this week. Perfect as usual 

Good write up Hugh 

I like San Fran The Giant Texans Over The Lions 

say that 10 times fast….

Anyone have any confidence in the NFC Playoff QB's?   

Ummmm...

Jalen Hurts 22 td's to 5 interceptions, think I'd say him I guess.

He's 4th by qbr, all 3 ahead of him are afc qb's. 

Nice topic 

@BWS77

 Since we are on the subject of quarterbacks, Jacoby Brissett is 8th by dvoa, 9th by qbr. And he's been holding a clipboard for what 3 games now?

Only the Browns, only the Browns...

For Hugh and all of you. A catchy upbeat spiritual song that flies way under the radar 

Akin to the old CD format

Hugh

Thanks for showing up Hugh 

I've locked the bears +5.5 for 5u already this week.  line is now +6 but I'm not worried.  leaning broncos as well   

NFL 76-68-7 (+17.25)

W16 2-8 (-5.75)

Saints +7(-110) *1.25/1.14

Saints ML(+270) *.25/.68

Good heavens why would you do this?

Tell me what I'm missing. 

I highly doubt that the Bears o line can lean on Detroit's run defense like the Panthers did imo. Not without Tevin Jenkins and Cody Whitehair. And Fields has gotten the red light on running. 

If there's any coach out there to have after an embarrassing loss at this juncture, it might be Dan Campbell. The Lions have been to the bottom with this guy more than once, I don't see things falling completely apart for them after last week.

Bears also have an outside shot at the #1 pick in 2023 if Texans win against a Jags team that may rest their starters at some point.

The road/home spread for Bears/Lions is telling as well considering Lions were +3 week 10 and now -6 which is a 9 point swing. I understand that Lions team was in a much different situation but as Claw mentioned, they were in regression mode last week after covering 7 straight games.