NFL 76-68-7 (+17.25)
Saints +7(-110) *1.25/1.14
Saints ML(+270) *.25/.68
Titans +14(-110) *.75/.68 *push*
Bears@Lions O52.5(-105) *1.00/.95
Panthers +4(-110) *1.10/1.00
Panthers ML(+170) *.25/.43
I'm convinced that whatever bettors drove this line from 3 to 4 are betting on one thing, and one thing only...and that's Tom Brady. Whether they think "the league" wants him in the playoffs or whatever, it's the only way the Bucs are covering this line imo. And I will live with it if so. JDD and I talked a little about "shady" side stuff, I'm not a firm believer but there have been some questionable games in the past.
Tom Brady is tied for the most defensive pass interference calls with 11, for 218 yards. Cousins also has 11 but for 158 yards. So anything can happen, like the tuck rule game and other shit.
But I won't handicap a game on such bullshit, the Panthers are the right side imo, especially this spot.
Since Darnold got the nod at qb(last 4 games), the Panthers are 3-1 with a +25 pt differential.
The Panthers had a bye in W13, the Bucs had their's in W11.
Darnold's QBR is 58.9 and dvoa is +36.7%. Compared to Brady's 49.4 and +7.3%.
In the Bucs last 5 games(since bye), they are 2-3 with a -41 pt differential. In that span 2 games went to OT.
The Buccaneers coaching staff is not good. Bowles has never been a good HC. And Leftwich doesn't seem like a good OC without Bruce Arians.
The Panthers surprised me against Detroit with their imposing will to run the ball. The Lions before W16, in their 3 prior games were #1 in epa and success rate against the run. The Panthers gave 2 shits and still ran it on them with tremendous success.
I think the players are "all in" on Steve Wilks.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/panthers-derrick-brown-says-everybody-on-team-wants-steve-wilks-as-next-head-coach/
I know that the Panthers top CB Jaycee Horn is out, it's a concern. The Panthers believe it or not, have signed CB Josh Norman and he will be active on Sunday. He's 35, don't expect much, maybe some Nickel and Dime stuff?
All in all, I'm prepared to lose $25 on the Panthers ML, as we have seen Brady gifted over n over in his career. I can't wait till he's out of the league.