CD Newsletter week 17

Now 51.5

Sharps are now 3-2 ats betting on Watson. 

There's something else I read recently that probably had folks fading Washington. Teams after playing the Niners this year, are winless in their following game. The Niners really beat the shit out of teams. Wish I had this info earlier. 

I'm convinced that the score will stay close to the lowly total in Baltimore today. And on a warm and windless day, which kicker would you rather back?

Justin Tucker or Chris Boswell?

After this convincing win, the Packers are probably going to go over 60% dvoa over their last 4 games.

I can frigin see it now...it's going to be Rodgers vs Brady in the nfc championship, isn't it? Why wouldn't it?

@SAC

is Lamar going to play today? so Red is at the game right now? No wonder I didn't see him on here too much...

I'm screwed with the Jets game...The offense is non-existance  

@Cyrax

 No he is out

I don't think the Ravens really need to win this game, do they?

I know the Steelers needs this game..

The way the books are juicing up the TT for each team. They are expecting a high scoring game.. I'm still trying to figure out if the Ravenswill sit anybody out , but Red is nowhere around...    I might go with the Over here..if the star are align..

@Cyrax

 The juice means that bettors are betting the overs. The books don't expect anything but making more $ than the bettors 

Ravens still fighting for division

@SAC

This is a tough game to cap.. If Lamar was playing , I won't hesitate to go with the Over..

Here's how I'm playing tonight's game:

Over 4.5 total sacks(-125) *1.00/.80

Justin Tucker O1.5 FG's(-125) *1.25/1.00

Ravens ML(-110) *1.00/.91

The amount of $ coming in on Pitt is absurd at this point. The Steelers were -1.5 at home vs the Ravens, lost by 2. Where is the HFA flip? How is this a pk? Perhaps it's the news of the Pats beating Miami today, thus keeping Pitt's playoff hopes alive. In turn, they "must win" tonight. 

If there were any tackle props in existence, I'd take Roquon over. He's averaged 8.15 tackles pg in night games in his career. The dude balls out for the cameras.

Good Luck 

Yep , There is a lot of money coming in on the Steelers..

GL with your play SAC 

@Cyrax

seahawks/Jags ML parlay next week, or tease, not sure yet.  Whichever better odds, unless I can find a 3rd team I like and do a 10 pointer.  

too early to tease plays on the lookaheads, and no ML available yet for me. 

hawks are -6.5 home vs rams in must win

Jags are -7 home vs Titans in must win

be nice if Jags moves down to -6.5, and I can find another team, then tease to +3.5 on both.......lets see what materializes.

might add lions at +14.5, or even Pack at +5.5.  Both sides may work.  Feel bad for Lions, Goff outdoors on grass we saw vs Carolina a couple weeks ago.  Different team for sure.  Pack may be dancing.  

NEED over 3.5 FG tonight.  and the game to end in a 13 point or less win.  LFG! lol   Dobbins 58 yards also. 

@JDD

 im on over 3.5 FG as well....good start....goal line stop

@JDD

 off the upright!! damn!

Only a Steelers/Ravens game could put you to sleep despite being tied. 

@JDD

 wow a phantom 15 yard call turns a FG into a TD......refs with a 4 point swing for balty

@dubz4dummyz

 Nice. We hit. 
plus I hit dobbins yards

also had individually Boswell over 5.5 pts and tucker over 6.5 points. The Boswell prop was way way way too much juice but held my nose and I suckered up for it. Whatever. Been a slow day. 

He needs to stop going to the games, he is clearly a jinx

Less than optimal weather this evening in Cincy. I just wanted to beat Hank with this weather forecast. 

Painful loss for Ravens backers. I have officially lost more $ on the Shrimp than any other team this year. 

Riddle me this. The Packers line against the Vikings was -3/-3.5 all week.

Week 18 against the Lions, it's -4.5.

How? Toss the Lions and Vikings records out the window and you will see that the Lions are a much better team. They are actually better than GB by weighted dvoa. I mean did the Lions do anything wrong in beating the Bears 41-10?

The Lions winning streak began with a 15-9 W vs the Packers. The Packers were -3.5 at Detroit for that one back in week 9. The Lions were 1-6 at the time. Since, the Lions have gone 7-2. With a 3 pt loss to the Bills, and the lone stinker game vs Carolina. 

The Packers have found themselves in the hunt for the playoffs by ripping off 4 straight wins vs the Bears, Rams, Dolphins and Vikings. Not exactly a murderer's row.

Here's something interesting. Vs common opponents: The Lions and Packers are both 6-6, and their point differentials are both +5. By this alone it's saying that they're even teams.

Weighted dvoa gives the Lions a sliver of advantage. Lions #8 at 8.2%, Packers #10 at 7.8%.

Both teams are 8-8.

Lambeau is not a 4.5 pt advantage.